How does Calgary keep market housing affordable and in supply?
Calgary's market housing is at the tipping point of affordability. But does home ownership have to slip out of reach or can the situation be reversed?
Building Industry and Land Development Calgary Region brought together independent industry experts for a summit, Unlocking Doors: Housing Supply and Affordability Summit, earlier this month to discuss ways to prevent market housing from escaping the reach of would-be homebuyers.
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Analysis-Wall Street sees new obesity pills as priced near Wegovy and Zepbound
By Maggie Fick and Bhanvi Satija SEATTLE (Reuters) -U.S. prices for obesity-treatment pills that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk aim to launch next year likely will be on par with their weight-loss injections, analysts and investors say, in a departure from the usual practice of charging more for new medicines despite pressure to cut prices. Neither drugmaker has disclosed pricing plans for their new daily oral medications. With regulatory approvals and launches still months away, pricing plans could change. Denmark-based Novo expects approval later this year and to launch soon after, while Indianapolis-based Lilly expects to launch by August 2026. Novo's Wegovy and Lilly's Zepbound, administered as weekly injections, are the only highly effective weight-loss drugs targeting the GLP-1 hormone, and the United States is their biggest market. U.S. list prices are about $1,000 per month or more, with both companies offering a monthly supply for $499 to customers paying cash rather than using health insurance. Both companies have said they developed oral weight-loss drugs to meet patient needs and widen access to the market, mindful that some people are averse to injections. The pills, however, are not more effective than the injections. Lilly said this month its pill orforglipron cut weight by 12.4% after 72 weeks in a trial. That compares with weight loss of 15% for Novo's daily oral semaglutide. Both trail Lilly's injection at up to 21%. UBS analyst Trung Huynh said that will cap Lilly's pricing. The price is "probably going to come on par with the current drugs today or slightly lower," Huynh said. TD Cowen analyst Michael Nedelcovych said he expects Novo's pill to debut near Wegovy's price, citing the precedent of its diabetes pill Rybelsus being priced at parity with injection Ozempic, the diabetes-treatment version of Wegovy. Novo executives told analysts this month they were not in a hurry for discount pricing for the new pill. Oral GLP-1 drugs will fill a niche rather than displace injections, according to analysts. TD Cowen estimates that pills will account for a percentage share of the global obesity drug market in the mid-teens by 2030, which could reach $150 billion by then. GROWING CASH PAY U.S. doctors, patients and insurers are pressing for lower prices to make the weight-loss drugs more affordable for the 40% of Americans who are obese. Typically, drugmakers launch new drugs at higher prices, citing scientific advances. President Donald Trump and lawmakers from both parties have urged the companies to reduce U.S. prices. Novo declined to comment on pricing, pointing to August 6 comments by David Moore, its U.S. operations head, saying that the company may tap customers paying cash directly via its new NovoCare pharmacy, which was launched this year to sell Wegovy outside of insurance. A Lilly spokesperson called it premature to comment on pricing and launch plans for its pill because the company has not yet submitted data for regulatory approval. Peak annual sales forecasts for Lilly's orforglipron fell to as low as $10 billion after its trial data from earlier estimates of up to $30 billion, according to a Reuters review of analyst estimates. HSBC forecasts $15 billion in peak annual sales for Novo's pill, while Barclays expects only $1 billion. MANUFACTURING VOLUME A key question is how much supply will be available at the time of launch. Shortages of injectable GLP-1s in 2023 and 2024 opened the U.S. market to cheaper compounded versions as the manufacturers failed to anticipate the huge demand. "It's all about scale and pricing," said Kevin Gade, portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor, which owns Lilly shares. Gade pointed to Novo's manufacturing challenge. The pill form requires about 75 times more active ingredient than the highest-dose Wegovy injection, two analysts told Reuters. Lilly has said it already has $808.5 million in orforglipron inventory for next year's expected launch. Novo has said it will launch its pill without supply constraints after billions of dollars in investment to expand semaglutide production. Despite the high production needs, Novo is unlikely to debut its pill at a higher price than Wegovy, said Karen Andersen, healthcare strategist at Morningstar. "Particularly in the growing cash-pay market, I doubt it can risk a launch at a premium to Wegovy," Andersen added. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Bond Market's Rate-Cut Bets Hit Decisive Stretch With Powell
(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders' big bet that the Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates faces a key moment this week as Chair Jerome Powell gets a chance to weigh in on the economy. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider A Photographer's Pipe Dream: Capturing New York's Vast Water System Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety A London Apartment Tower With Echoes of Victorian Rail and Ancient Rome Princeton Plans New Budget Cuts as Pressure From Trump Builds Powell's speech on Friday at the central bank's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicks off a make-or-break stretch for the Treasury market, which sees a quarter-point rate cut next month as virtually a lock, with at least one more by year-end. He's used the occasion to make market-moving policy pronouncements in recent years, and this time the setting is potentially momentous. Traders are confident that a weakening job market has opened the door to a more dovish tone from the Fed chair, although surprisingly hot inflation data gave some economists pause. For now, investors expect that he'll refrain from upending their wager on a cut next month, while likely offering a reminder that officials' Sept. 17 policy decision will hinge on reports before that gathering to confirm that the labor market is cooling and that inflation is in check. 'He has the capacity to do something that's market-moving, but I'm not necessarily sure that he's going to,' said Kelsey Berro, executive director for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. Bond-market pricing is 'still consistent with kind of a sub-trend, soft-landing environment. I don't think that they see a big reason to push back against the market expectations.' Yields are lower across most maturities in August, led by the two-year, after weak July employment figures boosted bets on Fed easing. The result is that the yield curve has steepened this month, with the two-year rate settling around 3.75%, not far above its lowest levels of the past few months. Treasuries gained Monday, with benchmark 10-year yields slipping three basis points to 4.29%. Wyoming Surprise That backdrop is adding to the focus on the Jackson Hole confab. Three years ago, Powell pushed short-dated yields higher with a warning that fighting inflation would bring pain to households and businesses. At the symposium last year, he signaled that the Fed was ready to lower borrowing costs from a two-decade high. Two-year yields tumbled that day as the comments vindicated traders who'd been wagering on rate cuts. That September, the Fed delivered the first of a series of reductions, with a jumbo half-point move. Some traders are bracing for a repeat of that decision. A series of large option trades have targeted a half-point move next month, even after the jump in producer prices. Those bets would become profitable if the market priced about 40 basis points of easing into the September meeting. The intensifying clamor from President Donald Trump and others in the administration to reduce borrowing costs is helping fuel those bets. Powell has signaled for months that he needed time to see the impact of tariffs on inflation, and he's stuck to that stance in the face of Trump's efforts to strong-arm him into cutting. 'The Fed's under a tremendous amount of pressure,' said Scott DiMaggio, head of fixed income at AllianceBernstein. 'They're a little bit behind, but they've been waiting to see the impact of tariffs and what it's doing to the economy and to inflation.' The data has gotten to the point, according to DiMaggio, 'where you can say, 'Yes, they should resume that rate-reduction cycle.'' Decisive Data Following Jackson Hole, the market will focus on August jobs data to be released Sept. 5 and whether it seals the path for easing next month and potentially flags the possibility of even a shock half-point cut. To be sure, several investors and traders said a move of that size is unlikely following the hot producer inflation report. 'Our sense is that it will come down to the jobs report,' said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. 'If it's weak we'll price for 25 and don't believe Powell will fight it.' A faster pace of easing could well bolster the economy at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target, and with a potential fiscal tailwind ahead from Trump's tax-and-spending bill. Together with investor concerns about the administration's pressure on the central bank and the president's move to replace the leader of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that could push money managers to demand a higher risk premium on longer maturities. 'Front-loading aggressive cuts requires the Fed to set aside any remaining upside inflation risks' and take the view that unemployment is biased sharply higher, said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment. What to Watch Economic data: Aug. 18: New York Fed services business activity; NAHB housing market index Aug. 19: Housing starts; building permits Aug. 20: MBA mortgage applications: FOMC minutes Aug. 21: Initial jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed business outlook; S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs; leading index; existing home sales Fed calendar: Aug. 19: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Aug. 20: Governor Christopher Waller; July meeting minutes; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Aug. 21: Jackson Hole symposium begins Aug. 22: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Auction calendar: Aug. 18: 13-, 26-week bills Aug. 19: 6-week bills Aug. 20: 17-week bills; 20-year bonds Aug. 21: 4-, 8-week bills; 30-year TIPS (Updates with Monday prices.) 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Goldman's Kostin Says S&P 500 Earnings Surge Past Expectations
(Bloomberg) -- S&P 500 companies trounced expectations this earnings season after they found ways to blunt the impact of tariffs and benefitted from a weaker dollar, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. As the second-quarter reporting season draws to a close, aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share are up 11% over the previous year, far exceeding the 4% consensus expectation, according to the strategists. With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 60% have beaten earnings per share forecasts by more than a standard deviation of estimates, they added. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider A Photographer's Pipe Dream: Capturing New York's Vast Water System Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety A London Apartment Tower With Echoes of Victorian Rail and Ancient Rome Princeton Plans New Budget Cuts as Pressure From Trump Builds 'The quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record,' David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note. The profit margins of US firms held up better than expected in the face of tariffs because companies were able to negotiate with suppliers, adjust supply chains, slash costs and pass price hikes to consumers, according to the strategists. Companies also benefitted from low expectations after analysts slashed earnings estimates during the spring as President Donald Trump announced new tariffs. In June, a team led by Kostin warned that margins would be under pressure if companies were forced to 'swallow a larger-than-expected share' of the cost from levies. A weaker dollar helped drive an acceleration in S&P 500 sales growth during the second quarter, according to the Goldman strategists. They warned, however, that sales growth appears more at risk for smaller companies, which enjoy less of a tailwind from dollar weakness. --With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani. What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates Living With 12 Strangers to Ease a Housing Crunch How Syrian Immigrants Are Boosting Germany's Economy Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
