A Larry Hogan return could jeopardize Wes Moore's White House prospects
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Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, the nation's only Black governor, may soon receive a formidable challenger who could be a major obstacle to the first-term Democrat's reelection prospects next year — and doom whatever political future he continues to say he's not interested in seeking.
Republican Larry Hogan, Moore's Republican predecessor, teased a return to politics last week.
He posted on Facebook and Instagram a pair of images of RVs: one a standard version you'd see on the highway in the final days of summer, the other decked out in campaign paraphernalia, including the yellow, black, red and white of Maryland's state flag. The stylized version also included Hogan's tagline from his unsuccessful 2024 Senate run, 'Let's Get Back To Work!'
'Slightly used 2024 RV, only 15,000 miles all in Maryland. Never slept in,' Hogan wrote. 'Could make a good deal. Or…I guess we could always rewrap it and get back out on the road again?'
In conversations with half a dozen elected officials, strategists and pollsters, many portrayed Hogan as a political force. As they see it, he's likely the only Republican in the state that has enough name ID and fundraising ability to challenge Moore should he officially jump into the 2026 governor's race.
Posting images on social media platforms is far from a declaration of candidacy. But it's certainly got people talking. Interestingly, the ones who aren't talking are members of Hoganworld, who're being unusually silent after insisting for months that there's no truth to the rumors that Hogan is itching to jump back into politics.
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I did get one former Hogan aide to talk — granted anonymity to discuss the former governor's future prospects — who took the opportunity to knock Moore.
'I think his liability has always been the perception that he is a very ambitious politician – even before he became governor,' the person said. 'That's always a tricky thing when you're running for reelection, but you have your eyes on a bigger prize.'
The person adds that's certainly a line of attack for Hogan to utilize, but adds: 'Whether that's enough to build that whole campaign, I don't know.'
Hogan is a popular ex-governor who served two terms and is generally well-regarded in the state. He left office with sky-high approval ratings that hovered near 80 percent and as a Republican leading a deep-blue state won over voters in part for lowering taxes and his adversarial stances against Donald Trump during the president's first term.
Still, Maryland state Sen. Malcolm Augustine (D), a Moore ally, does not see this as a ripe political environment for Hogan's political comeback.
'Just given what is happening at the federal level, I simply don't see a path for Larry Hogan,' he said, pointing to the Trump-led cuts in the federal workforce, which by one measure has impacted Maryland more than any other state in the nation. 'Larry Hogan was actively against Donald Trump,' Augustine continued. 'It's not like he gets to say, 'Oh, you know it's gonna be so much better under me.' No, it's [going to] be worse.'
That's because Trump and Hogan, who has been public about not ever voting for the president in 2016, 2020 and 2024, don't like each other. Augustine predicts that Hogan's road back to the governor's mansion would be hamstrung by Trump. Trump, who's known for holding grudges, would likely exact even more vengeance on the state.
Since returning to the White House, the Trump administration has halted plans for the new FBI headquarters to be built in Maryland's suburbs, just outside of Washington as well as ending other new construction projects for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing and cancelling research studying health gaps between racial and socioeconomic groups at the National Institutes of Health, also based in Maryland.
This week, Moore and Trump got into a bit of a tit-for-tat exchange when the governor announced he wouldn't be deploying the Maryland National Guard into D.C. 'They say maybe he'll be a president — he's not presidential temper at all,' Trump said, hinting that he might take over other Democrat-led cities, including Baltimore.
Moore is seen as a future leader of the Democratic Party delivering the keynote address at a closely-watched party dinner in the presidential early-voting state of South Carolina in May and even drawing looks from Hollywood icon and Democratic megadonor George Clooney, who described him as 'a proper leader.'
Still, he's had to navigate headwinds heading in recent months, particularly with those federal job cuts. He and the Democratic-controlled legislature in May raised taxes and fees to help close a more than $3 billion budget shortfall. And he's seen a slip in his approval rating slip to 50 percent approval with a 42 percent disapproval according to the Maryland Now Poll released last week. The survey continued a recent trend for Moore this year showing his gap between approval and disapproval narrowing.
'Wes Moore turned a historic surplus and tax cuts into an out of control deficit and tax hikes,' Courtney Alexander, Republican Governors Association Communications Director said in a statement. 'Marylanders don't want another four years of tax increases and runaway spending with nothing to offer except blame and empty smiles with no results.'
Hogan is a savvy politician, notes Mileah Kromer, a well regarded pollster and director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County's Institute of Politics. Kromer believes the well-timed social media post has the hallmarks of Hogan keeping his name in the mix, even if there's little evidence a campaign is being set up.
'Is he gonna just surprise us at the filing deadline again?' Kromer asks, nodding to the months of denial Hogan kept pushing about entering the U.S. Senate race, before filing his candidate paperwork on the last day of the filing deadline.
She adds that even though Hogan lost to Sen. Angela Alsobrooks by double digits in last year's Senate race, he can write that off as part of the Trump effect in a state Kamala Harris carried by nearly 30 points. Moore, she said, would be a tough opponent, but sees no other Maryland Republican who could mount a credible challenge to Moore next year.
So what do we make of Hogan's social media post where he hinted at taking his campaign RV 'back out on the road again?'
One senior Democratic operative summed up Hogan's post this way: 'He's fucking around…there's no operation being built as far as we can tell…He's a bored narcissist. I don't think it's that complicated.'
All the best,The Recast Team
PHOTO OF THE DAY
On Monday evening, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) who is unabashedly kicking the tires on a future White House run, traveled to the key swing state of Georgia. It was the latest stop on his 'Benefits Over Billionaires' where he railed against the president's 'big, beautiful bill' that Trump signed into law on July 4 and critics like Khanna say provide tax benefits for the nation's top earners.
Khanna, pictured second to the left, posed for a photo with progressive activist Nina Turner and Atlanta-based rapper and activist Killer Mike, whose government name is Michael Render, ahead of the event at the Teamsters Local 728 Union Hall. Also pictured is civil rights leader and former chairman of the 1960s Atlanta Student movement Charles Black (far left) and Rohit Malhotra, a candidate for Atlanta City Council President (far right).
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Trump renews vote by mail crusade – Republicans poured tens of millions of dollars last year into convincing their voters that casting ballots by mail was safe after Trump lambasted it. But now Trump is attacking mail voting again as he ratchets up his push to protect Republicans' House majority in the midterms. POLITICO's Lisa Kashinsky, Jessica Piper and Holly Otterbein break it all down.
And more…
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Tramell Tillmen on Hollywood stardom – The actor, who portrays Seth Milchick in Apple TV+'s mind-bending drama 'Severance,' opens up about his historic Emmy nomination: He's the first openly gay Black man to be recognized in the supporting actor drama category.
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