Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz prediction, odds, pick for UFC 316

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UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili versus Sean O'Malley 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Quillan Salkilld and Yanal Ashmouz in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Salkilld-Ashmouz prediction and pick.
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Quillan Salkilld (8-1) burst onto the UFC scene with an 18-second knockout of Anshul Jubli at UFC 312, showcasing his explosive power. Prior to that, Salkilld earned a unanimous decision win over Gauge Young on Dana White's Contender Series, proving he can go the distance and control the action. Now, he looks to do one better and continue his hot streak when he steps inside the Octagon to take on Yanal Ashmouz this weekend at UFC 316.
Yanal Ashmouz (8-1) rebounded from his first career loss with a dominant, unanimous decision win over Trevor Peek at UFC Vegas 97, using relentless wrestling and control. Previously, Ashmouz suffered a decision loss to Chris Duncan after a stunning 75-second knockout of Sam Patterson in his UFC debut. Ashmouz will be looking to extend his winning streak to two wins in a row when he takes on the surging Quillan Salkilld at UFC 316.
Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 316 Odds: Quillan Salkilld-Yanal Ashmouz Odds
Quillan Salkilld: -550
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Yanal Ashmouz: +410
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Quillan Salkilld Will Win
Last Fight: (W) Anshul Jubli – KO/TKO R1
Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: 6 (3 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Quillan Salkilld enters UFC 316 with significant momentum and a skillset that poses major problems for Yanal Ashmouz. Salkilld's explosive UFC debut, an 18-second knockout of Anshul Jubli, showcased his fight-ending power and sharp striking, while his previous decision win on Dana White's Contender Series proved he can maintain composure and control over three rounds.
With a six-inch reach advantage, superior height, and a striking rate nearly double that of Ashmouz, Salkilld is primed to dictate the range and tempo of the fight. His 100% takedown defense and black belt in jiu-jitsu further insulate him against Ashmouz's wrestling-heavy approach, making it difficult for the Israeli fighter to impose his preferred game plan.
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Ashmouz is a compact powerhouse who relies on pressure and wrestling, but Salkilld's physical development and relentless training under coach Romel Luistro have elevated his all-around game. Salkilld's team believes he holds the edge in every facet, on the feet, in grappling, and physically.
If Salkilld keeps the fight standing and leverages his reach, he can pick Ashmouz apart and potentially secure another highlight-reel finish. Expect Salkilld's athleticism, technical sharpness, and finishing instincts to be the difference as he continues his rise in the lightweight division.
Why Yanal Ashmouz Will Win
Last Fight: (W) Trevor Peek – DEC
Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Yanal Ashmouz is well-positioned to secure a victory over Quillan Salkilld at UFC 316 thanks to his well-rounded skill set and proven ability to adapt under pressure. Ashmouz, who boasts four knockout wins and two submissions, recently rebounded from his first career loss with a dominant decision over Trevor Peek, showcasing his relentless wrestling, top control, and ability to grind out tough opponents.
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His explosive bursts, heavy overhands, and willingness to mix up striking with takedowns make him a constant threat, especially against fighters who rely heavily on reach and distance. Ashmouz's experience in overcoming adversity, returning from a long layoff and fighting multiple times in the UFC, underscores his resilience and fight IQ.
While Salkilld is a dangerous striker with an impressive debut, Ashmouz's balanced approach and strong grappling could be the difference. If Ashmouz can close the distance, neutralize Salkilld's reach, and impose his wrestling, he can wear down the Australian prospect and control the fight on the mat. With a background as an IBJJL champion and a history of grinding out wins against aggressive opponents, Ashmouz is poised to drag Salkilld into deep waters, where his pressure and ground-and-pound can secure a decision or late stoppage victory.
Final Quillan Salkilld-Yanal Ashmouz Prediction & Pick
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz at UFC 316 shapes up as a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup with high stakes for both lightweights. Salkilld enters as a significant favorite, riding an eight-fight win streak and coming off a spectacular 19-second knockout in his UFC debut.
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Ashmouz, however, is no stranger to adversity. He rebounded from his first career loss with a dominant decision win over Trevor Peek, utilizing smart fight IQ, relentless wrestling, and top control to neutralize his opponent. While Ashmouz is giving up size and power, his experience and ability to adapt could make this a closer contest than the odds suggest. If he can weather Salkilld's early storm and drag the fight into deeper waters, his grappling could become a factor.
Expect Salkilld to keep the fight standing, use his reach, and land heavy shots for a knockout win to extend his winning streak.
Final Quillan Salkilld-Yanal Ashmouz Prediction & Pick: Quillan Salkilld (-550), Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
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