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May 2, 2025
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Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Markets don't need Fed rate cuts to move higher, strategist says
SoFi head of investment strategy Liz Thomas joins Market Domination Overtime with Josh Lipton to discuss the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Although markets are still largely pricing in a September rate cut despite Thursday's hot inflation report, Thomas thinks it is not as certain as most seem to believe. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime. Meanwhile, stocks falling most fall falling most of the day, closing near the flat line after a hotter than expected inflation print. This fresh data possibly complicating the Fed's rate cut decision for September. My next guest certainly thinks so. Joining me now got Liz Thomas, SoFi head of investment strategy. Liz, great to see you. So we get that PPI print, Liz, this morning. Um, you know, the market is betting on that cut next month, Liz. They expect it. Should the market be betting on that cut? Well, the market is betting on it and the market wants it very, very badly. And I think the bond market continues to try to send that signal. The debate before today had been whether or not the cut would be 25 or 50 basis points. Now, I think we've taken 50 basis points off the table with this print. But I have to say I'm surprised that the likelihood of a cut didn't come down further after today's PPI print. Now, part of it could be that PPI just isn't the headline maker that CPI or even PCE is because it's not consumer-based. But what you have to really pay attention to in this report is what happened which was outside of expectation. So a lot of the belief has been that tariffs have been absorbed by companies. Businesses are just eating them and letting them go into their margins. That's not what this report showed. So now you have to sort of expect that if businesses aren't eating them on the wholesale side, maybe they are planning on passing them through to to the consumer, and we just haven't seen that yet in the consumer inflation reports. That can take anywhere from three to six months, so we've still got some time and still some question marks. Let me ask you this. What about those economists I hear who say, you know, listen, inflation, it is not where J. Powell wants it. It's above target, but actually their argument would be, the Fed is now really focused on the labor market. That's what they're concentrating on, and that's why the cut is a lock next month. What do you say to that? Well, we've had we had one weak labor report. Now, it was mostly the weakness in it was about the revisions, not even the labor report itself. But I also would have to say, we haven't seen a contracting labor report. Even with those downward revisions last month, nothing contracted. So we haven't been losing jobs. We're just adding them at a much slower pace than we thought we were. If we get another weak labor report in the August numbers, so we'll get that early September, then I think it is more likely that the Fed goes ahead with a 25 basis point cut. If we get a hot labor report, it complicates complicates things a lot. So I think in this near-term scenario when we're looking at between now and September 17th for the Fed meeting, the labor report matters a lot. Over the longer term, though, I take Jerome Powell at his word, and he has said multiple times, high inflation doesn't work for anybody. It doesn't work for businesses. Now I'm paraphrasing. It doesn't work for businesses. It doesn't work for the economy. It doesn't work for consumers. So I think over the long term, they are going to have to really look at inflation. And the jobs market, too, we're at 4.2% unemployment. There's room for that to move up before they're going to get really uncomfortable. So I wouldn't hold that as the only thing that they're going to be concerned with. Liz, does the market need a cut to move higher? This is a controversial opinion. I don't think it needs a cut to move higher right now. I think the market really wants a cut. That's not to say that if expectations for a cut come down, yes, I do think we see volatility. But the market really has been driven lately by good, solid fundamentals, and yes, a lot of enthusiasm still over the AI theme and this technology super cycle. But I think that's warranted over the long term. Does it need a cut in order to keep having strong fundamentals from companies? Probably not. Does it need a cut to justify some of these high valuations? Perhaps. So I think that's the place that we're at right now, when the stock market is looking at the likelihood of a cut. A cut would help everybody feel perhaps a little bit better about these high valuations.
Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Air Canada to resume flights after government moves to end strike
STORY: :: Union members are 'disgusted' after Canada's government forces an end to a cabin crew strike :: Henly Larden, Vice President, Canadian Union of Public Employees 'We are incredibly disgusted that the Liberal government has been speaking out of both sides of its mouth. They said that the bargaining table was the appropriate place to make this address and here they are, having invoked (section) 107.' :: Vancouver, Canada :: August 16, 2025 'I'm incredibly disappointed. As you can see from everyone behind us. This is not just flight attendants. This is the transportation industry. And I assure you this is going to start some fire.' 'Air Canada should come and join us in good faith and address the matters that really resonate with our members. Unpaid work. Addressing this unfair, un-Canadian aspect of unpaid work in 2025.' :: Air Canada is set to resume flights a day after hundreds were suspended over the strike Thousands of Air Canada flight attendants had walked off the job just before 1 a.m. EDT (0500 GMT) on Saturday, after months of negotiations over a new contract. In anticipation of the stoppage, the airline canceled nearly all of its 700 daily flights, forcing more than 100,000 travelers to scramble for alternatives or stay put. The government's move to end the strike and require binding arbitration to break their contract impasse was sought by the country's largest carrier and fiercely opposed by the unionized flight attendants. The most contentious issue in the contract negotiations has been the union's demand for compensation for time spent on the ground between flights and when helping passengers board. Attendants are currently paid only when their plane is moving. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Air Canada to resume flights after government intervention on strike
Air Canada said it plans to resume flights on Sunday after the Canadian government intervened, forcing the airline and its striking flight attendants back to work and into arbitration. The strike, which began on Saturday morning, stranded more than 100,000 travelers around the world during the peak summer travel season. The North American country's largest airline said in a release that the first flights will resume Sunday evening but that it will take several days before its operations return to normal. It said some flights will be canceled over the next seven to 10 days until the schedule is stabilized. Nathalie Garceau, a spokesperson with the Canadian Union of Public Employees, told CBS News on Sunday that demonstrations will keep going around Canada, despite the statement from the airline. "We have not planned on cancelling it," she said in an email. Fewer than 12 hours after workers walked off the job, Federal Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu ordered the 10,000 flight attendants back to work, saying now is not the time to take risks with the economy and noting the unprecedented tariffs the U.S. has imposed on Canada. Hajdu referred the work stoppage to the Canada Industrial Relations Board. The airline said Sunday the Canada Industrial Relations Board has extended the term of the existing collective agreement until a new one is determined by the arbitrator. The shutdown of Canada's largest airline early Saturday was impacting about 130,000 people a day. Air Canada operates around 700 flights per day. According to numbers from aviation analytics provider Cirium, Air Canada had canceled a total of 671 flights by Saturday afternoon, following 199 on Friday. And another 96 flights scheduled for Sunday were already suspended. The bitter contract fight escalated Friday as the union turned down Air Canada's prior request to enter into government-directed arbitration, which allows a third-party mediator to decide the terms of a new contract. Flight attendants walked off the job around 1 a.m. EDT on Saturday. Around the same time, Air Canada said it would begin locking flight attendants out of airports. Last year, the government forced the country's two major railroads into arbitration with their labor union during a work stoppage. The union for the rail workers is suing, arguing the government is removing a union's leverage in negotiations. The Business Council of Canada had urged the government to impose binding arbitration in this case, too. And the Canadian Chamber of Commerce welcomed the intervention. Hajdu maintained that her Liberal government is not anti-union, saying it is clear the two sides are at an impasse. Passengers whose flights are impacted will be eligible to request a full refund on the airline's website or mobile app, according to Air Canada. The airline said it would also offer alternative travel options through other Canadian and foreign airlines when possible. Still, it warned that it could not guarantee immediate rebooking because flights on other airlines are already full "due to the summer travel peak." Air Canada and the Canadian Union of Public Employees have been in contract talks for about eight months, but they have yet to reach a tentative deal. Both sides have said they remain far apart on the issue of pay and the unpaid work flight attendants do when planes aren't in the air. The airline's latest offer included a 38% increase in total compensation, including benefits and pensions, over four years, that it said "would have made our flight attendants the best compensated in Canada." But the union pushed back, saying the proposed 8% raise in the first year didn't go far enough because of inflation. Examining the meteorite that landed in a Georgia house up close Exploring Hollywood Forever Cemetery's new 5-story mausoleum Air Canada flight attendants' strike grounds hundreds of planes Solve the daily Crossword
