
Close to 'Inflection Point' for Yields: BNP Paribas' Robson
Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas, says we are close to an inflection point where higher yields can start to challenge credit. She speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Medscape
21 minutes ago
- Medscape
ADHD, Obesity Link May Depend on Where You Live
The well-documented link between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and obesity in both children and adults has typically been attributed to individual traits and behaviors, with limited attention paid to environmental and social factors. However, a new study challenged this perspective, proposing that ADHD may contribute to obesity by reducing physical activity — a connection shaped by the urban environment in which a person lives. 'Our research reveals a surprising urban advantage: As cities grow, both obesity and ADHD rates decrease proportionally,' first author Tian Gan, a PhD student at the Center for Urban Science and Progress, NYU Tandon School of Engineering in Brooklyn, New York, said in a news release. Larger cities may offer 'protective factors against these interconnected health challenges,' Gan added, citing access to better mental health care, education, and opportunities for recreation and physical activity. The study was published online in PLOS Complex Systems . Urban Impact While impulsivity — a core ADHD trait — has long been suspected to contribute to weight gain through poor food choices and reduced physical activity, this new study highlighted how an individual's urban environment can either amplify or dampen those risks. Researchers analyzed public health data from 915 cities in the United States using 'urban scaling' methods, which describe how features of cities change with population size. They observed that both obesity and ADHD prevalence decrease 'sublinearly' with population — meaning that as cities grow, the per capita prevalence of these conditions declines. At the same time, access to mental health care and higher education rises 'superlinearly,' growing faster than the population. In other words, larger cities seem to offer not just more services, but disproportionately more support for conditions linked to impulsivity, the authors theorized. But city size alone doesn't tell the whole story. Using advanced causal discovery methods, the researchers mapped a network of interrelated variables. ADHD prevalence was linked to higher physical inactivity, which in turn increased obesity. Access to mental health care helped reduce inactivity and indirectly lowered obesity risk. Higher prevalence of college education correlated with better mental health access and more physical activity. This causal map revealed a dynamic system in which impulsivity, health behaviors, and urban infrastructure interact — suggesting that city environments can either reinforce or weaken these effects. The link between ADHD and obesity was stronger in cities with fewer opportunities for physical activity or greater food insecurity and weaker in cities with better access to mental health care and higher education levels, they explained. To validate their findings, the researchers examined individual-level data from the National Survey of Children's Health, which included 19,333 US children. This analysis confirmed the city-level data: Children with more severe ADHD were more likely to be obese, especially when physical activity and household education were low. Taken together, the findings reinforce evidence that ADHD contributes to obesity and point to the urban environment as a potentially modifiable target for intervention, the authors said. 'These findings underscore the importance of city-level interventions in mitigating the impact of impulsivity disorders on the obesity epidemic,' Maurizio Porfiri, PhD, who heads the Center for Urban Science and Progress at NYU Tandon School of Engineering, added in the news release.


Bloomberg
22 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trump Says China Violated Its Trade Agreement With US
US President Donald Trump accused China of violating an agreement with the US to ease tariffs, ratcheting up tensions between the world's two largest economies. 'China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!,' Trump wrote on his social media platform Friday.
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Tariff Ruling Threatens a $2 Trillion Fiscal Hole in Trump Plan
(Bloomberg) — The court ruling that blocked much of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs threatens to blow what some economists estimate as a $2 trillion hole into the US fiscal outlook over the coming decade, should the judgment stay in place. NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move NY Wins Order Against US Funding Freeze in Congestion Fight Why Arid Cities Should Stick Together The ruling could also present a new obstacle for Republicans who are relying on the revenue to help offset the cost of a roughly $4 trillion tax cut moving through Congress. 'At face value, this ruling will take away billions of dollars of prospective tariff revenue' annually, said Douglas Elmendorf a Harvard Kennedy School professor and former director of the Congressional Budget Office — a nonpartisan arm of the US legislature. A federal appeals court Thursday paused the Court of International Trade's Wednesday ruling striking down a swath of Trump's levies, and the White House is pushing to overturn the judgment entirely, aiming to appeal to the Supreme Court as soon as Friday. If the CIT ruling survives appeal, it would remove duties that would have raised nearly $200 billion on an annual basis, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. Trump and his aides had been relying on that increased revenue to get Republican lawmakers united behind the president's 'big beautiful bill' tax-cut package. The $2 trillion in added revenue over a decade would have gone some way towards offsetting the cost of the tax cuts, as measured by the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, as the legislation's spending reductions aren't expected to cover even half the tab. Failing judicial success, Trump's trade team would have to stitch together duties using executive authority other than the one struck down. But the process would take months, and decisions could still end up facing legal challenges, economists say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News Thursday that 'anything that the courts do to get in the way both harms the American people in terms of trade and in terms of tariff revenue.' Even a short-term hit to revenue would pose problems: the government is currently barred from raising net new debt, and the Treasury has been using special accounting maneuvers to make good on payments. Monthly customs revenue just hit a record of over $16 billion, helping the department's cash flows. Barclays Plc warned that the court ruling will bring forward the date by when the Treasury will have exhausted its cash and extraordinary measures. That in turn builds pressure on Republicans to get the tax bill done, as it includes an increase in the debt limit. 'The fiscal outlook just got a lot worse as a result of this court ruling,' said Ernie Tedeschi, who is director of economics at Yale University's Budget Lab and a former Biden administration official. 'Very high tariffs just got less likely.' The Budget Lab also estimated revenues would be about $2 trillion lower over 10 years — roughly $700 billion compared with $2.7 trillion — if the court ruling stands, and current tariff levels remain in place. Wednesday's court ruling involved Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to threaten the highest tariff rates in more than a century. The April 2 'Liberation Day' tariffs involved a universal baseline levy of 10% plus much bigger rates for various trading partners — though Trump had put those on pause prior to the ruling. Bloomberg Economics estimated that the average US tariff rate got as high as nearly 27% at one point. The court ruling takes it below 6%. Other channels Trump has to impose tariffs include Section 232 authority to impose sectoral levies. The administration has already invoked it to set the stage for import taxes on items including smartphones and jet engines. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and other products are also being eyed for tariffs. Existing duties are in place on steel and autos, among others. 'There are other avenues to do the tariffs,' said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, who sees a $180 billion annual revenue hit from the court ruling. Economists at Citi, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect the administration will ultimately raise the tariff revenue it needs. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran on May 27 told Bloomberg Television the tariffs would take in hundreds of billions of dollars a year, helping alleviate concerns about the fiscal deficit. Those estimates have bolstered the Trump administration against charges that its tax bill blows a hole in the budget. 'The blatantly wrong claim that the one, big beautiful bill increases the deficit is based on the Congressional Budget Office and other scorekeepers who use shoddy assumptions,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday. They have 'historically been terrible at forecasting,' she said. After the House passed a version of the tax bill earlier this month, it's now in the Senate's hands. It's possible that Senate Republicans could propose adding tariffs in the multi-trillion dollar spending bill to help offset costs, though it's unclear it would garner enough support to pass. 'They might include trying to get some tariffs,' said Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation. 'But I really don't see the appetite for something as broad as what the president has done.' Trump in a Truth Social post Thursday evening blasted the option, saying, 'In other words, hundreds of politicians would sit around DC for weeks, and even months, trying to come to a conclusion as to what to charge other countries that are treating us unfairly.' YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Inside the First Stargate AI Data Center How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.