Hot-seat coaching season in the SEC, plus some MAC inspiration
Today in college football news, I prepared to write this newsletter the same way Ralph Ineson prepared to play Galactus in the new 'Fantastic Four': by 'ruminating' in high places.
For years, the SEC was the coaching chaos conference, with seemingly every non-Nick Saban head coach on the hot seat at all times. But for the past couple years, things have mostly been quiet. Too quiet.
This season, only Alabama, Mississippi State and Texas A&M will have second-year coaches (and those first two were due to Saban's retirement and the fallout of Mike Leach's passing), and only Auburn will have a third-year coach. Everyone else is quite established.
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Compare that to the frenzies of Saban's 2007-2023 tenure, when most of the teams that were in the 12-team SEC — Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt — had five or six different head coaches each, sometimes because of failures to measure up to Saban (also see: Richt, Mark), and sometimes because of scandals done in the name of trying to measure up to Saban.
Has the Bama emperor's post-2023 abdication slightly eased the pressure on everybody else? Or is the current calm just a coincidence? On Seth Emerson's SEC hot-seat list, nine of the league's 16 head coaches merit at least a temp check, with Arkansas' Sam Pittman and Kentucky's Mark Stoops looking bona fide toasty. A few additional complications for Southeastern polo shirts:
Additionally, at least a couple of these coaches are getting up there in years (Stoops has been at UK since 2013, while Pittman and LSU's Brian Kelly will soon be 64), so it's possible we see a technically amicable parting or two in addition to potential firings. I asked Seth to set the number of expected HC changes in the SEC this season:
'Four is the number I keep landing on. There are five coaches on fairly warm seats (Pittman, Stoops, Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby, Oklahoma's Brent Venables, Auburn's Hugh Freeze) and two more on lukewarm seats (Florida's Billy Napier and Kelly). But the gap between the first five and the next two, and anybody else, is fairly wide, to the point where if one or two of the first few save their jobs, it may well come at the expense of someone else. The league will beat up on each other.'
So maybe more of a Joker Snapping The Pool Cue situation than a total purge. Still, that's just based on what can reasonably be predicted right now, before scoreboards light up. A September slump could spice up just about anybody's arrangement.
More SEC:
🌀 How often do top recruits transfer? The Class of 2021 was the first in history with free transfer rules, and now that these players are (mostly) almost done playing college ball, David Ubben examined the numbers. The thing that most struck me: There seems to be something to the old-school adage that it's often better to stay put and wait your turn, at least when it comes to QBs.
💰 Today is one of the most significant days in recruiting history: Schools can officially begin telling prospects exactly how much money's on the table. Because this is college football, there are lots of weird details.
📰 News:
This week, one computer user found a tremendous comment on a YouTube video called '1 hour of MAC HIGHLIGHTS' (how can you not watch that?), and I'll let that comment speak for itself:
'Congrats on your 5-star recruits and $100M facilities, SEC fans. Meanwhile, the MAC is out here playing real football in front of 14 people and a raccoon on a Tuesday night during a blizzard. You ever seen a punter throw a touchdown to a long snapper while the scoreboard's on fire? Didn't think so.
'While y'all are busy arguing over which frat-funded dynasty is slightly less fraudulent, Toledo's cooking up a triple-reverse flea flicker in a game that ends 43–42 after six missed PATs and a goalpost gets stolen. That's not football. That's MACtion. You wouldn't survive one quarter in Ypsilanti.
'Long live the MAC.'
Anyway, read Austin Meek on the state of the beloved MAC upset in the post-House era, then I'll see you next week. Email me at untilsaturday@theathletic.com with whatever is on your mind. Thank you to reader Kenneth for suggesting LSU play a home game in France and to Carson for the cursed phrase 'Rio de Janeiro Egg Bowl.'
A fun game: Who will be this season's first team to gain bowl eligibility? — Eric Hazard
I strongly considered Jalon Daniels and the Kansas Jayhawks, who are going to bounce back in a big way this season and get a head start in Week 0, so they do play their sixth game on Oct. 4. Five of those games are Fresno State, Wagner, West Virginia, Cincinnati and at UCF. But the sixth is at Missouri. Can't pull the trigger.
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That brings me to two candidates playing on Oct. 11: Navy should be very good, and it opens with VMI, UAB, at Tulsa, Rice, Air Force and at Temple. Then there's Pitt, which I consider one of the top surprise contenders. The Panthers' first six are Duquesne, Central Michigan, at West Virginia, Louisville, Boston College and at Florida State.
If Pitt is really 5-0 heading to Florida State, which, let's say, is 3-2, that'll be the top ACC TV game that week. Last year, the No. 1 ACC game usually aired at noon on either ABC (though usually that was an SEC game) or ESPN. Whereas Navy's conference games were split either at noon on ESPN/ESPN2 or 3:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network. No idea which one would get the Temple game.
Given Pitt is more likely to be earlier, I give the nod to Pat Narduzzi's team, which would be its second straight 6-0 start. Hopefully, this one doesn't finish 7-6.
More Mandel on the Big Ten's politicking, a top-10 uncertainty and more.
📫 Love Until Saturday? Check out The Athletic's other newsletters, too.
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