The American Political Realignment Is Real
The Democrats' defeat in 2024 reflected long-term shifts in the electorate, not merely Kamala Harris's vulnerability or Joe Biden's decision to seek re-election. If these trends persist through the 2028 presidential election, the long-predicted realignment of America's political parties will be completed.
The New York Times reported on May 24 that the Republican Party had increased its vote share in three consecutive presidential elections in 1,433 counties, nearly half the national total. The Democratic Party had increased its share in all three elections in only 57 counties. Some 42.7 million voting-age Americans live in counties that with consecutive Republican gains, compared with only 8.1 million in counties with consecutive Democratic gains.
In Texas, which Democrats once dreamed of shifting into their column, 124 counties have tilted further right since 2012, while only two counties have tilted further left. In New York, long a blue bastion, 43 of the state's 62 counties showed Republican gains of 10 percentage points or more between 2012 and 2024, and Democrats' statewide victory margin shrunk by half.
Demographic patterns influenced these geographical shifts. The clearest divide was on education level: In not a single county in which the Republican Party increased its share of the vote did a majority of adults hold a college degree. Ethnicity also mattered: Sixty-six of the 67 U.S. counties with a majority Hispanic population voted more Republican in 2024 than in 2012. Income was important, too: 95% of U.S. counties trending more Republican had median incomes below the national median.
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