A secession movement brews in western Canada

The Hill

16-06-2025

Canada has found itself in the headlines this year for reasons the nation would rather avoid. President Trump mocked then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him 'the governor of America's 51st state.' He floated the idea of annexing the country as recently as May 27 in connection with the proposed Golden Dome anti-ballistic system. Trump has also imposed tariffs on Canadian products, deepening tensions, particularly with Alberta, a western province long at odds with the capital of Ottawa.
But these tensions go beyond cross-border provocations from Trump. They expose deeper fractures within Canada's political framework — cracks in a federal system increasingly strained by regional discontent, constitutional ambiguity and competing visions of national identity.
Canada's governing structure is further complicated by the fact that it is a constitutional monarchy within the British Commonwealth. Though fully sovereign, Canada still recognizes King Charles III as its head of state — a connection many now view as antiquated. Symbolism, however, is only part of the problem.
Domestically, Canada is a patchwork of distinct cultural and political communities. Indigenous peoples, whose rights are constitutionally recognized, and Francophone Quebec — with its own language and long history of separatist movements — maintain identities distinct from English-speaking Canada. Quebec, in particular, has never formally endorsed the Constitution Act of 1982, reinforcing its sense of distance from federal authority.
Efforts to integrate Quebec collapsed under political pressure, fueling a separatist wave that nearly succeeded in the 1995 referendum. In response, Canada's parliament passed the Clarity Act (2000), setting legal parameters for any province seeking secession. While it was motivated by Quebec, the law now casts a shadow over Alberta's growing independence movement.
Alberta, as the heart of Canada's oil and gas industry, has frequently clashed with Ottawa over energy and environmental regulations, carbon pricing and 'equalization payments,' which redistribute revenue from wealthier to less affluent provinces.
Since taking office, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has become a leading advocate for greater provincial autonomy. Following the election of Prime Minister Mark Carney, who retained the officials from the Trudeau cabinet responsible for energy and environmental policy, the fault line has deepened.
Smith ramped up opposition to federal climate initiatives, arguing they unfairly target Alberta's economy. She sent a delegation to Ottawa seeking a 'reset' of the federal-provincial framework, criticized Canada's handling of U.S. tariffs and even met separately with then-President-elect Trump to press Alberta's case — moves Carney viewed as divisive.
Canada exports 81 percent of its total oil production, with 97 percent going to America. Of that amount, 87 percent originates from Alberta. Oil refineries in certain regions of the U.S., primarily in the Midwest, require the grade of oil produced north of the border.
Though Smith has ruled out outright secession, she is laying the legal groundwork for a possible referendum. A recent Angus Reid poll found that 36 percent of Albertans support independence. The mood in Alberta is growing more defiant, inspiring calls for decentralization in other western provinces and fueling a push for a looser federation.
In 2022, Smith's government passed the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, a contentious law allowing the province to challenge federal legislation deemed unconstitutional or harmful to Alberta's interests. Though it does not override national court rulings, it represents a bold assertion of provincial rights, particularly on natural resources and environmental matters.
For now, Smith insists that her agenda is not about separation but about fairness — pushing for a federation that respects regional differences and economic contributions. Still, her rhetoric and legislative actions suggest a province preparing for major confrontations ahead. With separatist sentiment simmering just beneath the surface, Canada is once again forced to reckon with fundamental questions about the nature and durability of its union.
David W. Wise is a retired businessman who publishes frequently on public policy. He is a graduate of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.