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ASX tech May winners: Silicon surge sends Aussie tech sector skyward by 22pc

ASX tech May winners: Silicon surge sends Aussie tech sector skyward by 22pc

Mercury03-06-2025
ASX tech stocks roared back to life in May, riding a wave of global AI hype, easing trade tensions, and strong earnings.
Don't miss out on the headlines from Stockhead. Followed categories will be added to My News. ASX tech rockets 22pc in May
Earnings from tech's 'Magnificent 7' helped matters
Elsight, Eroad, Etherstack and Yojee were notable gainers
The ASX tech sector didn't just rally in May, it rocketed.
Up more than 22%, it was one of the biggest monthly leaps in recent memory, outpacing every other sector on the index and riding a wave of global tailwinds that swept through Wall Street and into Martin Place. May performance by sector
So what lit the rocket under Aussie tech?
Well, a combo of softening US-China trade tensions, a rate cut by the RBA, and red-hot earnings from the global tech elite – all wrapped in a volatile month where every diplomatic handshake or tariff tweet sent markets bouncing. Wall Street turns silicon slick
Over in the US, it was an AI-fuelled tech fest.
The Nasdaq jumped 9.5% in May, its best showing since November last year. The S&P 500 had a solid 6.15% lift, and the Dow chipped in with a 4% gain.
The key driver was de-escalation.
Starting May 14, Washington slashed tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Beijing responded by trimming its own to 10%.
Also, earnings from the 'Magnificent Seven' – Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla – blew past expectations.
According to FactSet, their collective Q1 earnings grew 27.7%, smashing estimates and fuelling confidence in AI, cloud, and consumer spending.
But the mood wasn't all champagne and confetti.
Trump reignited tariff threats by month's end, accusing China of dragging its feet on export compliance, especially around rare earths.
The backpedalling stirred new worries, but not enough to undo the market's momentum.
Confidence is back, at least for now. And when global investors are feeling bold, ASX tech stocks often get caught in the updraft. ASX tech winners in May Code Name Price Month % Change Market Cap 4DS 4Ds Memory Limited 0.059 97% $118,137,090 ELS Elsight Ltd 0.770 71% $139,940,732 ERD Eroad Limited 1.390 65% $260,500,778 ESK Etherstack PLC 0.440 54% $58,155,681 YOJ Yojee Limited 0.270 54% $86,413,050 360 Life360 Inc. 33.330 52% $5,806,753,611 EOS Electro Optic Sys. 1.845 51% $355,996,623 CAT Catapult Grp Int Ltd 5.850 43% $1,427,690,903 XPN Xpon Technologies 0.010 43% $4,142,532 SPX Spenda Limited 0.007 40% $32,306,508 VNL Vinyl Group Ltd 0.130 38% $163,717,420 TNE Technology One 41.060 37% $13,346,815,417 RCL Readcloud 0.135 35% $20,738,668 DCC Digitalx Limited 0.070 35% $84,253,672 W2V Way2Vatltd 0.008 33% $11,302,865 VIG Victor Group Hldgs 0.082 32% $53,482,587 GTI Gratifii 0.099 32% $33,540,151 JCS Jcurve Solutions 0.033 32% $10,901,333 AI1 Adisyn Ltd 0.066 32% $47,726,289 AD8 Audinate Group Ltd 7.950 29% $658,524,993 IKE Ikegps Group Ltd 0.920 29% $148,177,677 CGO CPT Global Limited 0.063 26% $2,639,534 SMP Smartpay Holdings 0.945 25% $227,426,856 NVU Nanoveu Limited 0.048 23% $38,578,586 OCL Objective Corp 19.230 23% $1,838,200,431 VR1 Vection Technologies 0.022 22% $38,878,882 ASV Assetvisonco 0.039 22% $28,835,101 BCC Beam Communications 0.120 21% $10,370,631 WTC Wisetech Global Ltd 107.150 21% $36,396,942,187 FL1 First Lithium Ltd 0.078 20% $6,212,981 OAK Oakridge 0.072 20% $1,943,849 MP1 Megaport Limited 13.520 18% $2,242,455,288 SP3 Specturltd 0.013 18% $4,005,952 EOL Energy One Limited 14.750 18% $462,123,149 XF1 Xref Limited 0.135 17% $29,712,118 EVS Envirosuite Ltd 0.084 17% $121,691,110 SLX Silex Systems 3.600 17% $802,416,290 BVS Bravura Solution Ltd 2.550 16% $1,143,302,705 EML EML Payments Ltd 1.130 16% $431,773,255 CDA Codan Limited 18.000 14% $3,237,408,113 DTI DTI Group Ltd 0.007 14% $3,139,860 RDY Readytech Holdings 2.380 13% $290,693,379 OLL Openlearning 0.017 13% $8,205,469 AXE Archer Materials 0.300 13% $76,454,104 ID8 Identitii Limited 0.009 13% $7,002,122 XRO Xero Ltd 184.290 12% $28,534,797,978 RUL Rpmglobal Hldgs Ltd 3.070 12% $686,816,448 HCL Highcom Ltd 0.200 11% $20,536,534 BEO Beonic Ltd 0.200 11% $14,172,202 NXT Nextdc Limited 13.110 11% $8,415,067,423 SNS Sensen Networks Ltd 0.031 11% $24,584,162 SMN Structural Monitor. 0.430 10% $66,394,171 RKT Rocketdna Ltd. 0.011 10% $10,070,756 ZMM Zimi Ltd 0.011 10% $4,702,982 TYR Tyro Payments 0.885 10% $467,587,600 AR9 Archtis Limited 0.070 9% $20,157,701 DUG DUG Tech 1.120 9% $150,816,513 IRE IRESS Limited 8.660 9% $1,608,257,371 ROC Rocketboots 0.088 9% $12,815,075 KYP Kinatico Ltd 0.195 8% $84,257,937 SEN Senetas Corporation 0.020 8% $33,120,382 5GN 5G Networks Limited 0.140 8% $41,697,847 COS Cosol Limited 0.785 8% $142,861,205 ODA Orcoda Limited 0.079 7% $14,813,623 IRI Integrated Research 0.440 6% $78,035,192 FCL Fineos Corp Hold PLC 2.320 6% $785,319,223 DXN DXN Limited 0.036 6% $10,753,331 VGL Vista Group Int Ltd 3.470 6% $828,755,302 GTK Gentrack Group Ltd 11.390 5% $1,170,937,010 QOR Qoria Limited 0.415 5% $542,232,890 FLX Felix Group 0.210 5% $42,944,940 XYZ Block Inc 96.510 5% $5,298,308,114 UBN Urbanise.Com Ltd 0.840 4% $66,058,362 LVE Love Group Global 0.125 4% $5,066,771 ASB Austal Limited 5.520 4% $2,274,372,238 PHX Pharmx Technologies 0.080 4% $47,880,543 PPK PPK Group Limited 0.315 3% $28,605,937 WBT Weebit Nano Ltd 1.820 3% $419,949,381 OEC Orbital Corp Limited 0.092 2% $14,994,954 RKN Reckon Limited 0.490 2% $55,514,468 DTL Data#3 Limited 7.430 2% $1,158,714,331 NXL Nuix Limited 2.480 2% $813,603,994 DSE Dropsuite Ltd 5.880 1% $418,227,407 PRO Prophecy Internation 0.430 1% $31,712,042
Making news for the right reasons or just hitting milestones, here were some of the month's notable gainers…
Elsight (ASX:ELS)
Elsight's share price ripped higher in May after it secured a second major contract from a European defence drone maker, worth US$5.35m on top of an earlier US$4.28m deal announced in April.
That brings the customer's total commitment to US$9.63m, with all units set for delivery this year.
Elsight's Halo tech is being embedded into defence drone programs, and more than US$1m of the April order has already been delivered and booked as revenue.
On top of that, Elsight was selected by Northrop Grumman for a prestigious US defence accelerator, just 8 companies chosen from over 225 applicants.
That program gives it direct access to Northrop's tech and procurement teams, and a fast-track to potential US DoD contracts.
Eroad (ASX:ERD)
Transport tech firm Eroad surged after delivering a strong FY25 result and setting upbeat guidance for the year ahead.
It flipped to a profit, pulled in NZ$16m in free cash flow (a huge jump from NZ$1.3m last year), and saw revenue climb to NZ$194.4m, up nearly 7%.
Annual recurring revenue (ARR) also rose to NZ$175.1m.
But it was the outlook that really got investors paying attention.
Eroad is guiding to FY26 revenue of at least NZ$205m, and ARR of at least NZ$188m, with free cash flow yield of 8–10%.
It's also targeting medium-term ARR growth of 11–13%.
Etherstack (ASX:ESK)
Radio tech firm Etherstack popped in May after locking in a record US$7m in cash receipts for the first half of FY25, its strongest half-year since listing.
Most of that came from project revenue already delivered, and it reckons H1 revenue alone could beat all of last year's full result.
It's also flagged more big deals likely coming soon from long-term clients, and its recurring revenue from support and 'comms-as-a-service' is steadily growing.
All up, investors saw strong cash, solid outlook, and momentum.
Yojee (ASX:YOJ)
Logistics tech minnow Yojee surged in May off the back of two big catalysts.
First, it presented at the IFCBAA national freight conference, putting its next-gen freight forwarding software in front of key industry players.
Second, WiseTech's massive $2.1bn acquisition of E2open lit a fire under the whole sector, showing just how hot logistics tech is right now.
Now read: WiseTech's $2bn power play, and one small logistics tech stock stirring interest
Yojee's building its own momentum too, with an AI assistant baked into its platform, and a pilot deal with global player Röhlig Logistics kicking off in Singapore.
All up, investors saw a small-cap riding a big wave, and jumped on board. ASX tech losers in May Code Name Price Month % Change Market Cap DUB Dubber Corp Ltd 0.016 -61% $41,973,880 1TT Thrive Tribe Tech 0.001 -50% $2,031,723 DTZ Dotz Nano Ltd 0.048 -36% $28,323,086 BLG Bluglass Limited 0.011 -31% $22,198,234 FCT Firstwave Cloud Tech 0.013 -28% $22,275,743 OPL Opyl Limited 0.019 -27% $4,464,398 EIQ Echoiq Ltd 0.245 -26% $158,070,989 SIS Simble Solutions 0.003 -25% $2,628,991 BRN Brainchip Ltd 0.205 -24% $435,534,473 SKO Serko 2.720 -22% $338,912,408 SPA Spacetalk Ltd 0.160 -22% $12,395,156 DWG Dataworks Group 0.130 -21% $13,289,126 HTG Harvest Tech Grp Ltd 0.016 -20% $14,335,148 KNO Knosys Limited 0.035 -19% $7,564,854 NOV Novatti Group Ltd 0.022 -19% $11,950,156 RWL Rubicon Water 0.210 -18% $50,545,971 FBR FBR Ltd 0.005 -17% $28,447,261 NOR Norwood Systems Ltd. 0.020 -17% $10,318,553 JAN Janison Edu Group 0.140 -15% $36,384,355 IFG Infocusgroup Hldltd 0.006 -14% $1,574,561 NVQ Noviqtech Limited 0.027 -13% $6,791,487 HYD Hydrix Limited 0.014 -13% $3,818,764 EPX Ept Global Limited 0.023 -12% $15,150,929 AJX Alexium Int Group 0.008 -11% $12,691,429 8CO 8Common Limited 0.016 -11% $3,585,518 IOD Iodm Limited 0.130 -10% $77,070,523 CYB Aucyber Limited 0.080 -10% $16,751,735 3DP Pointerra Limited 0.055 -8% $44,279,224 ACE Acusensus Limited 0.970 -8% $135,825,086 CF1 Complii Fintech Ltd 0.025 -7% $14,284,841 ICE Icetana Limited 0.014 -7% $6,133,997 MX1 Micro-X Limited 0.056 -7% $37,363,326 WHK Whitehawk Limited 0.014 -7% $10,378,849 XRG Xreality Group Ltd 0.030 -6% $19,906,426 SOR Strategic Elements 0.032 -6% $15,236,274 HSN Hansen Technologies 5.100 -6% $1,047,697,081 AT1 Atomo Diagnostics 0.017 -6% $11,321,179 X2M X2M Connect Limited 0.019 -5% $7,375,455 TZL TZ Limited 0.059 -5% $16,556,232 BDT Birddog 0.047 -4% $7,589,843 CXZ Connexion Mobility 0.026 -4% $21,216,424 CML Connected Minerals 0.130 -4% $5,376,568 IFM Infomedia Ltd 1.210 -2% $471,132,514 AVA AVA Risk Group Ltd 0.103 -2% $30,499,563 DDR Dicker Data Limited 8.230 -2% $1,473,911,938 CCR Credit Clear 0.230 -2% $97,669,188 PPS Praemium Limited 0.730 -2% $348,732,077 DRO Droneshield Limited 1.315 -2% $1,127,576,305 ATA Atturralimited 0.860 -2% $328,224,812 CPU Computershare Ltd 40.220 -1% $23,657,729,209 NVX Novonix Limited 0.420 -1% $283,058,021
This story does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decision.
Originally published as ASX tech May winners: Silicon surge sends Aussie tech sector skyward by 22pc Stockhead
The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index rose 1.59% in May, easing from a 2.16% gain in April but still finishing in the green. Stockhead
As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific, Aussie tech players like Vection, DroneShield and Harvest are quietly stepping into the spotlight
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Dr Boreham's Crucible: It's a long way to the top if you want to roll prostate cancer, but Clarity is a clear contender
Dr Boreham's Crucible: It's a long way to the top if you want to roll prostate cancer, but Clarity is a clear contender

News.com.au

time24 minutes ago

  • News.com.au

Dr Boreham's Crucible: It's a long way to the top if you want to roll prostate cancer, but Clarity is a clear contender

There's nothing like a great biotech rivalry, such as the one between radio-pharmaceutical peers Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) and Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX). Raising the stakes, Clarity executive chairman Dr Alan Taylor makes a bare-all promise pertaining to Telix's proposed prostate cancer therapy TLX-591. 'I'm willing to say that if that gets to market, I will run down (Sydney's) Pitt Street with no clothes on,' he says. Taylor's 'nudie run' promise is inspired by Clarity's progress with its own phase II therapeutic trial, which resulted in a 'phenomenal response' from pre-chemotherapy patients (including a complete response). But the lesions need to be 'seen' first, with effective imaging. Clarity contends that despite commercialised therapies including Telix's Illuccix and Lantheus's Pylarify, there's a vast untapped diagnosis opportunity. Fresh from a $203 million capital raising, Clarity is undertaking two phase III diagnostic trials and an adjunct study of its diagnostic agent, 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA. The prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is present in most prostate cancers. The therapeutic variant, 67Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA is subject to a phase II trial (see below). About Clarity Clarity was formed in 2010 by TM Ventures and listed on August 24, 2021, having raised $92 million at $1.40 apiece. The company is based on the work of the late Dr Alan Sargeson at the Australian National University; and Prof Paul Donnelly at the University of Melbourne's Bio21 Institute of Molecular Science and Technology. Clarity is based in Sydney's now-gentrified inner-city Redfern. Taylor trained at the Garvan Institute in Sydney before spending 15 years in investment banking (including at boutique firm Inteq Ltd). He was keen on commercialising Australian life sciences and decided sitting in an investment bank 'ivory tower' wasn't going to cut it. He joined Clarity as executive chair in late 2013. Clarity's current chief scientific officer, Dr Matt Harris was part of TM Ventures and was Clarity CEO between 2010 and 2018. Dr Colin Biggin then took over and was replaced by current CEO Michelle Parker last October. Dr Biggin remains as chief operating officer and an executive director. In April this year, Clarity dropped a neuro-blastoma program (Sartate) and a prostate cancer program (Bombesin), to focus on three key efforts. They are programs for prostate cancer, neuro-endocrine tumours (Sartate) and breast cancer (Bombesin). Let's get (a bit) sciencey Clarity's SAR-bis-PSMA reflects a 'novel approach of connecting two PSMA-targeting agents to Clarity's proprietary sarcophagine (SAR) technology'. SAR securely holds copper isotopes inside a cage-like structure, called a chelator. This prevents copper leakage into the body. It also is able to bind a targeting agent – anything from a small molecule to a large antibody. The imaging agent is for improved positron emission tomography (PET) scanning. Taylor says Clarity's molecule developed for PSMA targeted imaging was similar to other products such as Pylarify and the unpatented gallium-68 PSMA-11 (the basis of Illuccix). But the first product was just as bad as the others. 'So, we went back to the benchtop and re-built that molecule into a bispecific, with two targeting agents instead of one,' he says. 'That increased the uptake to the lesion by two to three times, one hour after administration … and allowed for significantly better imaging at 24 hours.' Get a (half) life Clarity claims a half-life of 12.7 hours for copper-64, compared with less than two hours for the standard of care gallium-68 or fluorine-8. Patients can be administered and imaged the same day, next day or even the day after. Crucially, with a 48-hour shelf-life, the doses can be made further from the patient, at central or regional facilities. Another benefit is the nuclear material can be produced in electron accelerators and cyclotrons for therapy and diagnostics respectively, rather than nuclear reactors and generators. Clarifying Amplify Following two successful lead-in trials dubbed Propeller and Cobra, Clarity is undertaking two prostate cancer phase III trials, aimed at US Food and Drug Administration approval. One underserved segment is blokes who have had a radical prostatectomy (prostate removal) and have low – but rising – level of the tell-tale prostate specific antigen (PSA) in the blood. In the US alone, one million men might be walking around with the recurring cancer, dubbed bio-chemical recurrence. Current detection rates are low. Enrolling 220 patients, Amplify is a single-arm, open-label study at multiple US and Australian sites. The patients are evaluated on the day of administration and 24 hours later. In late April, the trial dosed its first patient, at a US site. Clarifying Clarify The second phase III effort, the similarly-structured Clarify, is enrolling 383 patients across 23 sites, mainly in the US. This one is for high-risk prostate cancer, prior to radical procedures such as prostate removal. Such a procedure can leave a patient impotent and/or incontinent. So, if they end up still having cancer, that's the worst of all worlds. Clarify trial recruitment is expected to close early next year. Canaccord expects a read-out on both Clarify and Amplify as early as March or April next year, with potential commercialisation as early as June 2027. Co-PSMA An investigator-led study, Co-PSMA benchmarks 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA head to head against the standard-of-care. The 50 enrolled patients are also being measured for 'potential curative outcomes' with targeted radiotherapy. The study is being carried out at Sydney's St Vincent's Hospital, under the auspices of the investigator, Prof. Louise Emmet. Taylor says the patients already have had a prostatectomy but are concerned about rising PSA levels with undetectable disease. 'We want to avoid aggressive therapies such as chemical castration (testosterone blockers),' he says. 'The earlier we can find the lesions and have external beam radiation and nip it in the bud, the longer quality of life we can have.' The previous Cobra trial showed 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA detected tumours as small as 1.9 millimetre in diameter, with sub-5.0mm lesions detected in 14 % of patients. Co-PSMA is scheduled to read out in the next couple months. Secure-ing a better prostate treatment? We shouldn't forget the phase I/IIa therapeutic trial, Secure. Carried out in the US, Secure is a multi-centre, single arm, dose escalation study enrolling 24 patients with (advanced) metastatic, castration-resistant, prostate cancer. Participants in the first three cohorts in the dose escalation stanza have been treated with three strengths, with no 'dose limiting toxicities'. Even at the low dose, pre-chemo patients saw a PSMA reduction of 50%. At double the dose all patients had an 80 %-plus PSMA reduction; two of them 90 % plus. One patient with 'no hope' had a complete response, that is, the tumour disappeared. The company is likely to begin a phase III trial if the positive trends continue. NET agent is a Disco hit In mid-June, Clarity revealed top-line data from the jazzily titled Disco, a phase II effort for patients with known or suspected neuro-endocrine tumours (NETs). 'Patients with NETs are often misdiagnosed and experience delays in receiving the correct diagnosis,' the company says. Comparing Clarity's 64-Cu-Sartate with the gallium-based, standard of care 68-Ga-Dotatate, the results showed Clarity's agent to be more effective, either four or 20 hours post-administration. Across the 45 study participants, 64-Cu-Sartate detected 393 to 488 lesions, compared with 186 to 265 for 68-Ga-Dotatate. More than 90% of the 'discordant' lesions were Sartate positive and all of the biopsied legions were verified as cancer. 'In the Disco trial, we continue to observe the substantial limitations of the current generation of short half-life isotope products,' Taylor says. Clarity is planning a phase III study and has a therapeutic trial in mind as well. Sartate targets the somatostatin receptor SSTR2, present in other cancers such as certain breast and lung tumours. Finances and performance Last month's $203 million raising was through a placement at $4.20 a share, a hefty 18% premium to the 15-day weighted average price. 'I have never done a deal that fast,' says Taylor, who dubs the raising as 'fast, well executed and sizeable'. The raising was one of the biggest in ASX biotech history. In a similar supersized vein, in April last year the company raised $121 million in a rights issue and placement (at $2.55 a share). Last December, Clarity shares were promoted to the ASX200 index. Over the last year its shares have ranged from a record high of $8.79 on September 23 last year to a low of $1.46 on April 9 this year (amid the Trump tariff turmoil). The stock hit an all-time low of 40 cents in May 2022. Clarity shares have been affected by the build-up of short-sellers who account for about 10% of the register. Over the last week the stock has lost close to 20%. Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, in the hope of buying them back at a lower price and restoring them to the lender. Size of the prize With prostate cancer, Canaccord estimates Clarity's total addressable market at US$5 billion in the next three to five years, with sales of US$730 million. The firm estimates the current (poorly served) biochemical recurrence (BCR) market at between 110,000 and 200,000 patients, who on average have 1.7 to 2.2 scans per year, equating to a potential scan volume of 187,000 to 440,000 per year. A further 500,000 BCR patients may benefit in future. The firm reckons that in the first year of launch, 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA could generate US$17 million of revenue, rising to US$580 million by year three. Canaccord says while there's pent-up demand in the BCR population, the overall market for prostate imaging and therapies is crowded. 'Clarity will be required to show data in line – or improved on – those available therapies, especially as a later entrant.' Meanwhile, Clarity estimates the US neuro-endocrine tumour diagnostic at around 100,000 scans per year, increasing to about 120,000 scans a year by 2029. Dr Boreham's diagnosis Taylor says that taking expanded indications into account, the neuro-endocrine tumour opportunity is 'as large, if not larger' than the prostate cancer imaging potential. He initially viewed the prostate cancer diagnosis market as low risk and low reward. Given the unserved needs, especially from the BCR cohort, he now concurs it's a 'blockbuster market'. Two years ago, your columnist compared Clarity to the fifth Wiggle, in that the company's profile was overshadowed by that of the commercialised Telix. 'We are now more like AC/DC than the Wiggles, looking to make it big in the US with Australian tech,' he says. As AC/DC would attest, it's a Long Way To The Top in terms of cracking the US market. But it's a lovely view when you get there. We're confident Clarity can reach the summit – at least with a diagnostic approval. On the therapy side, hopefully TLX-591 and Clarity's candidate can get to market. For the benefit of Sydney CBD passers-by, we also hope Taylor keeps his gear on. At a glance ASX code: CU6 Share price: $3.62 Shares on issue: 371,893,943 Market cap: $1.35 billion Financials (June quarter 2025): receipts nil, cash outflows $9.1 million, cash balance $84.1 million (ahead of $203 million placement) Chief executive officer: Michelle Parker

Record highs offer opportunity… and a warning
Record highs offer opportunity… and a warning

News.com.au

time24 minutes ago

  • News.com.au

Record highs offer opportunity… and a warning

Global equity markets have reached fresh record levels, supported by softer US inflation figures and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. It's an impressive run, but I believe the enthusiasm may be running ahead of the underlying reality. August rallies are not unusual, and they often have more to do with seasonal trading dynamics than with a meaningful shift in economic conditions. Lower volumes, repositioning by institutional investors, and a tendency for sentiment to swing quickly can all magnify price movements during the summer. This year's surge has the hallmarks of that pattern. The latest moves were fuelled by data showing inflation rising less than forecast, easing fears that tariffs were adding upward pressure to consumer prices. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed 1.1% higher at 6,445.76, the Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 21,681.90, and the Dow Jones added 483 points to finish at 44,458.61. The Russell 2000 outperformed with a jump of nearly 3%, as traders positioned for cheaper credit ahead. Futures markets now put the probability of a September rate cut near certainty, and some are even betting on a more aggressive 50 basis-point move after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for stronger action. But rate expectations can shift rapidly. A single data release, or a change in tone from policymakers at the Jackson Hole symposium later this month, could reset the market's assumptions. Opportunity and risk – discipline is key Earnings season is also sending mixed signals. Cava shares fell more than 22% after the restaurant chain reported weaker-than-expected revenue growth and cut its full-year forecast. In a truly broad-based rally, we would expect to see consistent earnings beats and upgraded guidance across sectors – something the current market has yet to deliver. Global economic conditions remain uneven. The US economy is performing better than many expected earlier this year, but Europe's recovery is still patchy, Asian markets remain volatile, and US-China trade negotiations continue against a backdrop of tension, particularly in technology and semiconductors. Any deterioration in these areas could quickly undermine investor confidence. This is why I see the current market as offering both opportunity and risk. Participating in the upside is possible – but only with a clear understanding of what's driving the move and a willingness to manage exposure if conditions change. Price action driven by sentiment and positioning can reverse just as fast as it climbs. August often gives the illusion of stability before reality reasserts itself in the autumn. For investors, this is a time to remain disciplined, assess whether portfolio gains are built on solid ground, and ensure that risk management plans are in place. It's one thing to benefit from short-term momentum; it's another to depend on it. Nigel Green, is the group CEO and founder of deVere Group, an independent global financial consultancy. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

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