National Hurricane Center's Florida outlook is clear. What is Tropical Storm Barbara?

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7 hours ago

With a hot Sunday on the horizon and the Saharan dust cloud pretty much gone, people in Florida on June 8 will need to apply the sunscreen and watch for a passing thunderstorm in some spots.
But what we won't have to worry about this week, according the National Hurricane Center forecasters on June 8, is any tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of America.
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The dust that passed was helping keep the tropics quiet, as the dry air helps prevent the development of new storms and helps prevent any existing ones from strengthening.
Another large plume of dust moving off Africa could reach Florida around June 13, according to AccuWeather.
If you're hearing about a tropical storm somewhere, there is one, but Tropical Storm Barbara is in the Pacific and not anything headed our way.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 8:
The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. It's moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, before a storm is approaching.
Tropical Storm Barbara is in the eastern Pacific, far from Florida. It is the second named storm of the Pacific hurricane season, which started May 15.
The storm had 45 mph winds, was last charted the morning of June 8 at 180 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Tropical Storm Barbara was not causing any watches or warnings for land.
Named storms in the Pacific have a different set of names than those in the Atlantic. Andrea will be the first named storm in the Atlantic (it was Alvin for the Pacific).
"This dust will likely prevent anything from forming across most of the Atlantic tropical basin over the next few weeks," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.
"The only areas that can see a risk of development will be across the western Caribbean or in the Gulf.
"The timing we are looking at for possible tropical development in the central and western Caribbean is June 12-16 or perhaps a bit later," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather meteorologists said there is a low risk for tropical development in that area through mid-June.
"Should a tropical depression or storm take shape next week, it may be more likely to track into the Gulf and then perhaps swing toward Louisiana or Florida," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
"Should it wait till later next week or perhaps hold off until nearly the middle of the month, steering breezes would be more likely to take it into southern Mexico or Central America."
It appears that the latter option, with movement toward Mexico or Central America, is more likely, according to AccuWeather.
Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month."
➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said.
"The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year," Truchelut said. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded."
The GFS model, which stands for Global Forecast System, is the weather prediction model operated by the National Weather Service. In addition to providing data for a wide range of forecasts, it's also used for hurricane tracking.
A "wall of dust" moved through Florida and the dust plume was expected to stretch along the Gulf Coast and portions of the southwest Atlantic coast through June 6.
Those conditions, which produce vivid sunrises and sunsets, along with hazy skies, along with dirty spots on cars and other objects when it rains, should dissipate this weekend.
Another dust plume is expected in about a week, which has its advantages. Dust in the atmosphere helps prevent the formation or strengthening of tropical systems.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Center tracks tropical wave as Florida stays in the clear