Ostensible ceasefire in Gaza, real and fictional, has made the ARF more important than ever — Phar Kim Beng and Lutfy Hamzah
What's unfolding is a paradox of modern diplomacy: an undeclared ceasefire that, despite not being real in military terms, is already reshaping geopolitical realities. For the upcoming Asean Regional Forum (ARF) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, this fiction has provided a stage for reality to emerge.
A ceasefire both real and fictional
Despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes and continued resistance by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio has spoken publicly of a proposed 60-day ceasefire. According to the framework reportedly accepted in principle by Israel and now under review by Hamas, this temporary truce would involve a staged release of hostages and prisoners, reduction of Israeli troop presence in populated areas, and the facilitation of humanitarian aid through Egypt and Qatar.
But even as talks continue, Israeli bombs have not stopped falling on Gaza — particularly in Khan Younis and Rafah — and civilian casualties continue to mount. Human rights groups and UN officials have labelled the situation not only a humanitarian catastrophe but also an example of what one UN Special Rapporteur recently called an 'economy of genocide.' Hence, the ceasefire remains an 'ostensible' one: a hopeful diplomatic façade masking an unrelenting ground reality.
Yet fiction has its uses. This very illusion of a truce has allowed diplomatic momentum to shift from crisis management in the Middle East to strategic planning in the Indo-Pacific. And it has changed the itinerary of one of the world's most powerful diplomats.
Israeli bombs have not stopped falling on Gaza — particularly in Khan Younis and Rafah — and civilian casualties continue to mount. — AFP pic
Rubio postpones East Asia trip — but with intent
Originally scheduled to travel to Japan and South Korea in the first week of July, Secretary Rubio abruptly cancelled both visits. Officially, the reason was to focus on the Middle East. But analysts have been quick to note that this decision had additional advantages for both Japan and South Korea — especially given the domestic volatility in both countries.
In Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is grappling with the possibility of an electoral backlash in the Upper House election on July 20. Trade negotiations with the United States have stalled over issues such as tariffs on automobiles, digital services, and agriculture. A visit from Rubio, carrying the pressure of the Trump administration's new economic doctrine, could have forced Ishiba into public concessions that would weaken his domestic credibility. As Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations aptly noted, Rubio's decision to bypass Tokyo was 'fortuitous'.
In South Korea, President Lee Jae-Myung faces a faltering economy. The Bank of Korea has slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 0.8 per cent. Rumours of a US withdrawal of 4,500 troops from the peninsula have also created anxiety in Seoul. Lee is in no position to confront the twin challenges of economic downturn and American strategic retrenchment. Rubio's decision to forgo a visit removes at least one political headache from the Korean leader's immediate horizon.
Asean Regional Forum as a strategic pivot
The geopolitical beneficiary of all this is the 31st Asean Regional Forum (ARF), scheduled for July 9 to 11 in Kuala Lumpur. With Rubio confirmed to attend in his dual role, the ARF has been catapulted into relevance. No longer a 'talk shop', the ARF has become the multilateral venue for serious side-bar conversations between Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Riyadh, Doha, and Jakarta.
Rubio's presence will lend heft to the ARF, but more importantly, it reflects a US foreign policy recalibration. Under Trump's renewed leadership, Washington is taking a harder, transactional approach to alliances, but also an increasingly pragmatic stance toward regional diplomacy. The multilateral format of the ARF offers cover for difficult conversations without the bilateral optics that can inflame domestic politics.
Strategic relief for Muslim-majority South-east Asia
For the Group Chair of Asean — Malaysia — and for preponderantly Muslim countries like Indonesia and Brunei, the ostensible ceasefire in Gaza offers strategic relief. Since October 2023, Muslim-majority governments in South-east Asia have been under immense domestic pressure to condemn Israeli actions, suspend economic relations with Israel, and vocally support the Palestinian cause.
However, as state actors, these governments must navigate a delicate balance: staying true to public sentiment while maintaining geopolitical neutrality. The proposed ceasefire, though not yet implemented, grants them a temporary reprieve. It allows Asean Muslim-majority states to shift the regional narrative back toward development, security, and digital transformation.
For Malaysia, this moment is particularly consequential. As ARF host and Asean Chair, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has the rare opportunity to preside over an Indo-Pacific security dialogue at a time of extreme global flux. With Rubio present, the spotlight is firmly on Kuala Lumpur. This enables Anwar to reassert Malaysia's civilisational diplomacy — grounded in Islamic moderation and Asian consensus — as a bridge between the Global North and Global South.
The return of Trump: Consolidating global recalibration
All of this unfolds against the backdrop of Donald Trump's aggressive political reassertion. Since assuming the presidency for a second time in January 2025, Trump has pressed forward with what his aides call the 'Golden Age' doctrine. This includes the recent passage of the 'Big, Beautiful Bill', which slashes social spending while locking in tax cuts and expanding defence budgets. The US Supreme Court has also strengthened executive power, granting Trump leeway unseen since the Reagan era.
On the foreign policy front, Trump has approved surgical strikes on Iranian and Houthi military targets, even as he pushes peace negotiations in Gaza. The contradictory nature of these moves — bombing while brokering — mirrors the duality of the Gaza ceasefire it self: part illusion, part strategy.
It is precisely this context that makes the ARF more important. For South-east Asia, a region often caught in the crossfire of US-China rivalry, the ARF offers a rare moment of regional autonomy. With global attention diverted to the Middle East, and bilateral diplomacy in Northeast Asia on hold, Asean must seize the moment to reassert its relevance.
Conclusion: Fiction with consequences
The ostensible ceasefire in Gaza may be fictional in military terms, but its diplomatic impact is already deeply real. It has shifted attention from bilateral pressure points in Japan and South Korea to multilateral engagement in Southeast Asia. It has relieved Muslim-majority governments in Asean from having to respond daily to the moral outrage of Gaza. And most importantly, it has turned the Asean Regional Forum into a newly relevant stage for strategic dialogue in the Indo-Pacific.
In a world where perception often precedes policy, the fiction of peace may well be the prelude to real stability. For Malaysia and the rest of Asean, this is a chance not to be missed.
* Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is the Director of the Institute of Internationalization and Asean Studies (IINTAS) at IIUM, and Lutfy Hamzah is a Senior Research Fellow at IINTAS.
** This is the personal opinion of the writers or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
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