Rahm to win and DeChambeau to bomb out – our writers' Open Championship predictions

Telegraph

16-07-2025

The Open Championship is back at Royal Portrush, and the expectations of drama are already rising. With the first tee shot creeping closer, we tasked our golf correspondents with scripting how this major might unfold.
Who will win?
Shane Lowry
He has been due a win all year and there is nobody better among his peers at links golf. He is the best chipper in the world and that is a boon around this layout. All the pressure will be on Rory McIlroy, and once again the man from Clara in County Offaly can burst through from the relative shadows to steal the local hero's thunder. James Corrigan, Golf Correspondent
Scottie Scheffler
Boring prediction but he's the bookies' favourite for a reason. Best player in the world. Tom Cary
Jon Rahm
The Spaniard was a runner-up in the LIV Golf League at Valderrama. Having been tied in 11th at Royal Portrush in 2019, he is in his prime at age 30 to go on a run for the Claret Jug. Tom Morgan
Jon Rahm
After a small major dip since joining LIV, the Spaniard has shown glimpses of his best at the big tournaments this year. He was Scottie Scheffler's biggest threat at the PGA Championship until the final three holes and finished T7 at Oakmont last month. He arrives at Portrush having finished second last week at LIV's event in his homeland and carded his best Open finish last year at Royal Troon. A man in form. Frankie Christou
Justin Rose
None of the leading lights look rock-solid so I am throwing a dart at an outsider, albeit one with outstanding pedigree. Rose had an underwhelming Open record for many years, but has finished in the top 25 in six of his last nine tries, including a runner-up finish at Royal Troon last year.
There have been three top-six finishes and four missed cuts in his last seven major appearances, so it has been a case of duck or no dinner, but when Rose's putter is warm he can still mix it with the game's best. Banked a top-10 finish at the Scottish Open last week, and The Open has always rewarded experience and nous. After McIlroy pipped him at Augusta, wouldn't it be typical for Rose to find redemption on the Northern Irishman's home turf? Dan Zeqiri
The dark horse
Russell Henley
He is world No 5 and 66-1? That is ridiculous. Not the most extravagant golfer, but is a top-10 specialist and one of these weeks is going to land a big one. James Corrigan, Golf Correspondent
Ryan Fox
The New Zealander has the game to contend at an Open and did well the last time it was held at Portrush, finishing T16, his best finish at a major. Tom Cary
Russell Henley
Underrated, but showing signs he is of the calibre of player to win a major. Would be some leap, however, at the age of 36. His biggest ever career win came in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Tom Morgan
Harry Hall
With many English hopes hanging on Tommy Fleetwood or Tyrrell Hatton, the Cornish flat-cap wearing 28-year-old has gone under the radar. Hall has been having an impressive year on the PGA Tour this season and has found some form just in time for Portrush, finishing outside the top 20 just once since May. Frankie Christou
Cameron Young
The fact he did not bother playing the Scottish Open is a negative, but Young has played in three Opens and finished in the top eight twice, never missing the cut. He has also finished in the top five at the US Open and US PGA Championship, and in the top 10 at the Masters twice. His powerful driving suits the game's toughest tests and he is worth keeping an eye on. Dan Zeqiri
Big name to miss the cut
Justin Thomas
Adore him as a golfer, but just do not think he gets links golf. His record agrees. Not one top 10 in eight Opens – and only one top 30. Would love to be wrong as when he is on a roll is one the game's best to watch. James Corrigan, Golf Correspondent
Bryson DeChambeau
Three missed cuts in seven Opens suggests he isn't entirely comfortable with links golf. Finished T30 at LIV Andalucia last week. Tom Cary
Francesco Molinari
Europe's vice-captain has spoken regularly of his unhappiness since winning the 2018 Open. He failed to make the cut at Royal Troon last year and he is going to struggle here again. Tom Morgan
Collin Morikawa
The two-time major winner has chewed up and spat out two caddies this year alone and has landed on Matt Fitzpatrick's former bagman Billy Foster for The Open. Their first outing together ended in a missed cut last week at the Scottish Open and he has not finished inside the top 10 in his last five major starts. I expect the blame game to continue before the American starts to look in the mirror. Frankie Christou
Bryson DeChambeau
The American has been off-colour since missing the cut at last month's US Open as defending champion. Despite two strong finishes in 2019 and 2021, the capricious nature of links golf has never looked receptive to DeChambeau's precise calculations. Dan Zeqiri
Best performing Brit
Tyrrell Hatton
A penny dropped for Hatton at the US Open, when he was in the mix until a bad break on the 17th. Finished seventh here last time. On a different level now. James Corrigan, Golf Correspondent
Tommy Fleetwood
You could make a case for any number of Brits to contend, but I fancy Fleetwood to bounce back from heartbreak at the Travelers. Tom Cary
Tyrrell Hatton
Excellent at the US Open last month, before eventually dipping late on. Hatton loves the Open and he demonstrated his ability with a T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019. Tom Morgan
Rory McIlroy
Not sticking my neck out here, but his showing last week at the Renaissance Club was encouraging after his post-Masters slump. His 61 as a 16-year-old at Portrush is still the course record and the fact it is in his home country should have given him the added motivation he has been lacking. Frankie Christou
Matt Fitzpatrick
Rose aside of course, it was heartening to see Fitzpatrick looking more like his old self at the Scottish Open and he is the type of nuggety competitor who should thrive at the Open. Much like Lowry, winner at Royal Portrush in 2019, he is highly proficient around the greens and scrambling is likely to be key. Dan Zeqiri
What you'd like to see
The Open challenge
The wind to blow and everyone to realise that the Open is the best major there is, held on the most stunning layouts. James Corrigan, Golf Correspondent
McIlroy to win on home soil
Fleetwood to bounce back from heartbreak at the Travelers. Rose to bounce back from heartbreak at Augusta. Westwood to roll back the years. Tyrrell Hatton to channel his temper and win a big one. McIlroy to win an emotional Open on home soil. All would be incredible but the last would shake the Giant's Causeway to its foundations. Tom Cary
Rory win
It's an unimaginative answer, but it is hard not to hope for a Rory McIlroy triumph. Nothing will beat the career grand slam being rounded off in April, but after struggling for motivation since, McIlroy securing a victory here on home turf would be some story. Tom Morgan
England's oldies to have a go
Lee Westwood and Rose will be, if not already, considered as England's greatest ever golfers in the modern era behind Nick Faldo but it is astonishing neither have lifted the Claret Jug. Rose went close last year, while Westwood is back following a three-year absence after getting in through qualifying. If either of them manage to flirt with the lead come Sunday, it will make for great entertainment and no doubt the whole country will be rooting for them to bring an end to this 32-year curse. Frankie Christou
Hatton in the heat of battle
Hatton has one of the most complete games in the field and is getting closer to a major breakthrough. He was right in the mix with two holes to play at Oakmont, before finishing with consecutive bogeys. In Hatton's defence, he suffered a rotten piece of misfortune on the 17th when his ball stopped in thick rough rather than rolling back into the bunker. Often appears to be in a fight with himself as well as the course, but that can be compelling in itself. Dan Zeqiri