Why the proposed Texas congressional map may not be a lock to net five new GOP seats

Yahoo

3 days ago

The proposed overhaul of Texas' congressional map is, as demanded by President Donald Trump, designed to give the GOP five new seats in next year's midterm election.
But while the newly drafted lines would all but assure Republicans at least some pickups, an analysis of the tentative redistricting plan suggests the GOP is far from guaranteed to net all five seats.
The map, for one, relies on census data from 2020 in a state with a rapidly growing population and demographics that are poised to continue changing in the years to come. And while the five reconfigured districts would have been firmly for Trump if they'd been in place last year, other recent statewide races would have been far more competitive — especially in the midterm years of 2018 and 2022, when Democrat Beto O'Rourke would have carried or narrowly lost some of the new districts in his runs against Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Greg Abbott.
Still, the proposal presented few, if any, opportunities for Democrats to flip the script by targeting Republican districts — a possibility even some GOP incumbents were girding for ahead of the draft map's release.
The mid-decade redistricting effort is coming at the behest of Trump's political operatives, who pressured state leaders to redraw the Texas map to help pad Republicans' razor-thin majority in the U.S. House.
The proposed map targets Democrats in South Texas and around Dallas, Houston and Central Texas. And it does so without seriously jeopardizing any of the 25 districts Republicans already control, dampening the hopes of Democrats who had hoped an aggressive gerrymander could backfire on the GOP and create opportunities to oust a few sitting Republicans, particularly in a Trump midterm election year when the national climate is expected to favor Democrats.
'I don't see any Democratic silver linings here at all,' Odus Evbagharu, the Texas Democratic Party treasurer, said. He argued that the new district lines would suppress the power of voters of color, adding, 'From day one, this redistricting process has been a mess. It's been broken, it's in shambles.'
Still, while the map would pave the way for the GOP to control up to 30 of the state's 38 congressional districts, the two seats in South Texas appear to be firmly in play for Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, both of whom were reelected last year even as Trump carried their districts. The map drawers made those districts just a shade redder, in what amounts to a gamble that the party's recent historic gains among Hispanic voters — who dominate the electorate in both districts — will stick.
Retaining the three other targeted seats would be a far bigger reach for Democrats, though experts said some could be in play in a strong Democratic year. That trio of blue districts includes the 9th Congressional District in Houston, held by Rep. Al Green; the 32nd District in Dallas and its northern suburbs, represented by freshman Rep. Julie Johnson; and the 35th District, which runs from San Antonio to Austin, held by Rep. Greg Casar.
Each went for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by large margins last year and, under the newly proposed lines, would have favored Trump by at least 10 points.
Johnson's district would become untouchable for Democrats, picking up several new bright red counties east of Dallas. Had the new lines been in place for past elections, statewide Republicans would have carried the district even under the most favorable Democratic wave years, such as in 2018, when the district would have gone for Cruz by about 9 percentage points over O'Rourke.
The margins were less pronounced in Casar's newly configured 35th District, which Cruz would have carried by three-tenths of a point in 2018, and Green's 9th District, which would have gone for O'Rourke by 2 percentage points under the new lines.
All three Democrats condemned the proposed map, with Johnson calling it a 'corrupt, racist power grab' that was made to 'rig the game for Donald Trump.'
Before the draft map was released, Democratic groups pledged millions of dollars to recruit candidates and support their campaigns. House Majority PAC, which works to elect House Democrats, announced a $20 million fund for Texas, while House Majority Forward — a nonprofit affiliated with the PAC — spent money on ads in a handful of GOP districts in apparent anticipation that those seats would become more competitive under a new map.
The plan did not appear to leave any room for Democratic pickups. While many Republican incumbents had reliably red voters shifted out of their districts, the map was crafted so that every existing GOP district would have voted for Trump by at least 15 percentage points.
'There's no Republican in Congress who has been hung out to dry by this map, so given that, it looks like there is some significant upside for Republicans,' Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said. 'It would take a pretty big blue wave in 2026 to imperil any of the Republican incumbents.'
With their prospects otherwise bleak, Democrats are hopeful that Cuellar and Gonzalez could hang on by continuing to buck trends at the top of the ticket.
Gonzalez was also the victim of GOP redistricting efforts in 2021, when state lawmakers approved new maps that tilted the 15th Congressional District — a longtime Democratic seat Gonzalez represented at the time — in favor of the GOP. Gonzalez jumped ship to run in the neighboring 34th District in 2022, which he has represented ever since.
That seat, which currently stretches from Brownsville up the state's southeastern coast to Kingsville, followed the trend that swept South Texas in 2024, with Trump carrying the district by more than 4 percentage points. Gonzalez narrowly won reelection by 2.6 percentage points.
The split-ticket voting was even more pronounced in Cuellar's district, where the so-called King of Laredo — an anti-abortion Democrat seen as one of his party's most moderate members in Congress — overcame a federal indictment and Trump's 7-point advantage in his district to win reelection by more than 5 points.
If Cuellar, who is scheduled to go to trial on the bribery and money laundering charges in September, can escape his legal woes, operatives and analysts rate the district as a potential tossup.
'He's an incredible performer, given how much the district has changed,' said Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, while noting Cuellar's legal baggage.
Under the new lines, Trump would have carried both Gonzalez and Cuellar's districts by about 10 percentage points. In a midterm election, which usually sees lower rates of voter turnout and typically punishes the party in power, experts say both have a shot at holding their seats.
Gonzalez's path may be more difficult. Under the proposed map, his district would lose familiar territory in Hidalgo County and take on more right-leaning voters in Nueces County.
In a statement, Gonzalez pledged to fight the new map electorally and in court, but he acknowledged the difficulty of defending a more GOP-friendly district.
'The newly proposed TX-34, under the Republicans' outrageously gerrymandered map, is a blatant Trump-rigged district,' he said. 'When they know they can't win, they cheat!'
Cuellar, meanwhile, lost voters in the San Antonio region but took back a portion of Hidalgo County that he once represented under previous maps. Democrats have a recent history of success under the new boundaries: Democrat Joe Biden would have won it by almost 10 points in 2020, and O'Rourke by a whopping 32 points in the 2018 Senate race.
The district's electoral history is evidence of how rapidly Latino voters in South Texas have shifted to the right. But Cuellar, a Laredo institution, has routinely withstood that trend.
A spokesperson for his campaign was much more muted than other Texas Democrats in a statement — and listed a host of conservative-coded issues that speak to why Cuellar has been able to win over Trump voters.
'Rep. Cuellar understands the communities that he represents and they trust his experience delivering results,' the spokesperson said. 'He looks forward to continuing to serve the people of South Texas in Congress and advancing the issues that matter most to them — including strengthening border security, protecting American oil and gas, securing resources for rural communities and supporting farmers and ranchers.'
Disclosure: Southern Methodist University has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
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