GCC will need 2,800 new schools for extra 1.5m students by 2029

Arabian Business

27-05-2025

The number of students in GCC region will grow by 1.5m to reach 15.5m and require an additional 2,800 schools by 2029, according to Alpen Capital's latest education industry report.
Within this, the K-12 segment is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1 per cent between 2024 – 2029 to reach 12.9m.
As student numbers increase along with rising populations in the region, hundreds of new schools will be needed, said Alpen Capital.
Schools in the GCC
Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director of Alpen Capital, said: 'The GCC education sector is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by government-led reforms, increased private sector participation, and accelerating digital innovation.
'Demand for private education continues to rise, supported by sustained economic growth, a growing population, rising affluence, and a strong preference for globally recognised curricula.
'However, institutions are facing pressure from rising operational costs and a shortage of qualified teachers, particularly in an increasingly competitive and quality-conscious market.
'GCC governments' continued focus on modernising education—through the integration of digital skills and innovative teaching methodologies—is expected to enhance education quality and support long-term outcomes'.
According to Alpen Capital, the total number of students in the GCC education sector is projected to increase from 14m to 15.5m at a CAGR of 2.1 per cent between 2024 – 2029.
This growth is expected to be driven by continued economic expansion in the region and a steady increase in population, which in turn is contributing to a rising school-age demographic.
Favourable macroeconomic conditions, including high per capita income and sustained government budget allocations, are providing additional momentum to the sector.
Among the various segments, the pre-primary segment is expected to witness the fastest growth, with student enrolments projected to increase at a CAGR of 2.7 per cent between 2024–2029.
The tertiary segment is projected to expand steadily, with a CAGR of 2.1 per cent, supported by rising demand and ongoing government efforts to enhance the quality of higher education.
Meanwhile, the primary and secondary segments are also anticipated to grow at a steady pace, with enrolments projected to increase at CAGRs of 2 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively, over the forecast period.
The number of K-12 students in private schools are expected to grow at a slightly faster pace of 2.3 per cent CAGR, as compared to public schools which is forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 2 per cent between 2024 – 2029.
With the exception of UAE, public schools are expected to retain their dominant position in the GCC's K–12 educational landscape, accounting for approximately 70.8 per cent of total enrolments by the end of the forecast period.
Among the GCC nations, Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the largest education market, accounting for 64.6 per cent of the region's total student enrolments by 2029.
In terms of annualised growth, Oman is projected to lead with a CAGR of 3.3 per cent during the 2024–2029 period, followed by Bahrain at 2.4 per cent, and the UAE and Qatar, both at 2.2 per cent.
The demand for schools across the GCC region is expected to rise at a CAGR of 1.4 per cent during the forecast period, requiring an addition of more than 2,800 schools by 2029.
Within this, demand for private schools is expected to expand at a CAGR of 2.4 per cent, outpacing the public-school segment, which is anticipated to grow at a slower CAGR of 1.1 per cent during the same period.
Hameed Noor Mohamed, Managing Director of Alpen Capital (ME), said: 'The education sector of the GCC offers a strong growth outlook, with investor interest remaining high, driven by robust fundamentals and sustained long-term demand.
'This is creating substantial opportunities for both regional and international education providers to establish or scale their presence in a growing market.
'Looking ahead, M&A activity in the GCC education sector is expected to stay buoyant, as operators focus on improving educational quality, expanding capacity, and streamlining operations.
'The growing demand for affordable schooling and the integration of Edtech solutions are anticipated to further drive deal activity within the sector'.
As per the report, sustained economic momentum is expected to not only support public investment in education but also make the education sector increasingly attractive to private and international investors.
Furthermore, the GCC population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1 per cent between 2024 – 2029 to reach 67.1m by 2029.
This population expansion is mirrored in the growth of the school-age population, which is expected to drive steady rise in enrolment.
Rising affluence, preference for international curricula, supportive government initiatives and increasing private sector participation is poised to attract international institutions, creating a strong momentum for sector expansion and investment.
In terms of challenges, the private operators are facing increasing cost pressures due to rising expenditures on retention of qualified teachers, real estate, and digital infrastructure.
These pressures are further compounded in a highly competitive market with a growing number of private international schools.
The sector also continues to face a shortage of skilled teachers and educational staff, which is intensifying, given the rapid growth of premium international schools that require high-calibre teaching talent.
Highlighting the trends in the education sector, the report states that educational institutes in the GCC are rapidly integrating emerging technologies to drive innovation and enhance student engagement.
With continued investments in EdTech, the region is preparing students with future-ready skills and delivering an inclusive learning experience.
The GCC education industry is also witnessing a clear shift toward strengthening kindergartens, nurseries, and early learning programs through policy reforms and greater private sector engagement.
Meanwhile, the foreign universities are establishing a stronger presence across the region to meet the rising demand for diverse higher education options.
GCC countries are making substantial investments in education to develop an ecosystem aligned with global standards.
This commitment has driven significant transformation in recent years, particularly through the integration of technology. Strengthening digital infrastructure will be key to advancing the sector further—enabling innovation, enhancing learning outcomes, and unlocking new avenues for growth and investment across the region.