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Arabian Business
27-05-2025
- Business
- Arabian Business
GCC will need 2,800 new schools for extra 1.5m students by 2029
The number of students in GCC region will grow by 1.5m to reach 15.5m and require an additional 2,800 schools by 2029, according to Alpen Capital's latest education industry report. Within this, the K-12 segment is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1 per cent between 2024 – 2029 to reach 12.9m. As student numbers increase along with rising populations in the region, hundreds of new schools will be needed, said Alpen Capital. Schools in the GCC Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director of Alpen Capital, said: 'The GCC education sector is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by government-led reforms, increased private sector participation, and accelerating digital innovation. 'Demand for private education continues to rise, supported by sustained economic growth, a growing population, rising affluence, and a strong preference for globally recognised curricula. 'However, institutions are facing pressure from rising operational costs and a shortage of qualified teachers, particularly in an increasingly competitive and quality-conscious market. 'GCC governments' continued focus on modernising education—through the integration of digital skills and innovative teaching methodologies—is expected to enhance education quality and support long-term outcomes'. According to Alpen Capital, the total number of students in the GCC education sector is projected to increase from 14m to 15.5m at a CAGR of 2.1 per cent between 2024 – 2029. This growth is expected to be driven by continued economic expansion in the region and a steady increase in population, which in turn is contributing to a rising school-age demographic. Favourable macroeconomic conditions, including high per capita income and sustained government budget allocations, are providing additional momentum to the sector. Among the various segments, the pre-primary segment is expected to witness the fastest growth, with student enrolments projected to increase at a CAGR of 2.7 per cent between 2024–2029. The tertiary segment is projected to expand steadily, with a CAGR of 2.1 per cent, supported by rising demand and ongoing government efforts to enhance the quality of higher education. Meanwhile, the primary and secondary segments are also anticipated to grow at a steady pace, with enrolments projected to increase at CAGRs of 2 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively, over the forecast period. The number of K-12 students in private schools are expected to grow at a slightly faster pace of 2.3 per cent CAGR, as compared to public schools which is forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 2 per cent between 2024 – 2029. With the exception of UAE, public schools are expected to retain their dominant position in the GCC's K–12 educational landscape, accounting for approximately 70.8 per cent of total enrolments by the end of the forecast period. Among the GCC nations, Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the largest education market, accounting for 64.6 per cent of the region's total student enrolments by 2029. In terms of annualised growth, Oman is projected to lead with a CAGR of 3.3 per cent during the 2024–2029 period, followed by Bahrain at 2.4 per cent, and the UAE and Qatar, both at 2.2 per cent. The demand for schools across the GCC region is expected to rise at a CAGR of 1.4 per cent during the forecast period, requiring an addition of more than 2,800 schools by 2029. Within this, demand for private schools is expected to expand at a CAGR of 2.4 per cent, outpacing the public-school segment, which is anticipated to grow at a slower CAGR of 1.1 per cent during the same period. Hameed Noor Mohamed, Managing Director of Alpen Capital (ME), said: 'The education sector of the GCC offers a strong growth outlook, with investor interest remaining high, driven by robust fundamentals and sustained long-term demand. 'This is creating substantial opportunities for both regional and international education providers to establish or scale their presence in a growing market. 'Looking ahead, M&A activity in the GCC education sector is expected to stay buoyant, as operators focus on improving educational quality, expanding capacity, and streamlining operations. 'The growing demand for affordable schooling and the integration of Edtech solutions are anticipated to further drive deal activity within the sector'. As per the report, sustained economic momentum is expected to not only support public investment in education but also make the education sector increasingly attractive to private and international investors. Furthermore, the GCC population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1 per cent between 2024 – 2029 to reach 67.1m by 2029. This population expansion is mirrored in the growth of the school-age population, which is expected to drive steady rise in enrolment. Rising affluence, preference for international curricula, supportive government initiatives and increasing private sector participation is poised to attract international institutions, creating a strong momentum for sector expansion and investment. In terms of challenges, the private operators are facing increasing cost pressures due to rising expenditures on retention of qualified teachers, real estate, and digital infrastructure. These pressures are further compounded in a highly competitive market with a growing number of private international schools. The sector also continues to face a shortage of skilled teachers and educational staff, which is intensifying, given the rapid growth of premium international schools that require high-calibre teaching talent. Highlighting the trends in the education sector, the report states that educational institutes in the GCC are rapidly integrating emerging technologies to drive innovation and enhance student engagement. With continued investments in EdTech, the region is preparing students with future-ready skills and delivering an inclusive learning experience. The GCC education industry is also witnessing a clear shift toward strengthening kindergartens, nurseries, and early learning programs through policy reforms and greater private sector engagement. Meanwhile, the foreign universities are establishing a stronger presence across the region to meet the rising demand for diverse higher education options. GCC countries are making substantial investments in education to develop an ecosystem aligned with global standards. This commitment has driven significant transformation in recent years, particularly through the integration of technology. Strengthening digital infrastructure will be key to advancing the sector further—enabling innovation, enhancing learning outcomes, and unlocking new avenues for growth and investment across the region.
Arabian Business
22-02-2025
- Business
- Arabian Business
GCC healthcare spending to hit $159bn by 2029; Saudi and UAE lead growth as hospital beds to pass 140,500
Current Healthcare Expenditure (CHE) in the GCC will reach $159bn by 2029, according to forecasts by Alpen Capital. It implies an annualised growth rate of 7.8 per cent and CHE in the GCC is anticipated to increase at growth rates ranging from 4 per cent to 8.8 per cent. UAE-based investment banking advisory firm, Alpen Capital, launched its latest GCC Healthcare Industry report which features forecasts on the sector, recent analysis on trends, growth drivers and challenges facing the segment. GCC healthcare spending Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director of Alpen Capital, said: 'The GCC healthcare industry is poised for strong growth driven by macro-economic factors, a growing and ageing population, and the expansion of mandatory health insurance. 'Government-led diversification strategies and national development plans of the GCC will continue to enhance the healthcare infrastructure and facilities, bringing them at par with international standards. 'Further growth of the healthcare industry will be fuelled by privatisation initiatives, substantial investments in digital transformation and rising demand for specialised healthcare services. 'Looking ahead, we expect the sector to offer innovative opportunities for investors and operators to expand their presence and deliver advanced, high quality healthcare services'. Olivier Tricou, Managing Director, Alpen Capital, said: 'The GCC healthcare industry is experiencing significant transformation, driven by a growing demand for specialized medical centres and increasing medical tourism. 'In response, private sector players are investing heavily to expand healthcare services and meet the needs of a diverse population. Key trends shaping the industry include the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and digitalisation, which are enhancing diagnostics, patient care, and operational efficiency. 'Additionally, there is a notable increase in specialised clinics to address complex medical conditions and cater to specific patient demographics. To remain competitive, healthcare organisations are developing strategic plans that leverage technology and multi-specialty services. 'This ongoing transformation is expected to drive a dynamic M&A landscape, as operators seek to scale, innovate, and align with the region's evolving healthcare demands'. According to Alpen Capital, CHE in the GCC is expected to grow from an estimated $109.1bn in 2024 to $159bn in 2029, at a CAGR of 7.8 per cent. The region's expanding population base, high incidence of NCDs, rising cost of treatment and medical inflation, coupled with increasing penetration of health insurance are expected to drive growth. CHE as a proportion of GDP in the GCC is anticipated to grow from 5 per cent in 2024 to 5.7 per cent in 2029. The growth varies widely among the GCC nations largely owing to country-specific population projections, economic conditions and cost of healthcare among other factors. Saudi Arabia is likely to witness the highest growth rate at 8.8 per cent, whereas the UAE's healthcare industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.7 per cent during the forecast period. The market rankings are expected to remain unchanged, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominating the region's CHE with a combined share of 82.6 per cent by 2029. CHE of Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman is expected to grow at CAGRs of 8.3 per cent, 6.3 per cent, 6 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively between 2024-2029. The report forecasts that the region is likely to require 12,317 new hospital beds between 2024 and 2029. This translates into an estimated annual average growth of 1.9 per cent since 2024 to reach a collective bed capacity of 140,572. Majority of the new additions are expected to be driven by the private sector as the GCC governments have started focusing on privatization to reduce cost burden and increase standard of care. Saudi Arabia is likely to witness the highest demand for beds in the GCC at over 8,500 new beds, accounting for 69 per cent of the region's total additions during the forecast period. The report highlights that economic growth, coupled with the governments' focus on economic diversification, is expected to drive healthcare investments in infrastructure and human capital development. Key demographic trends – such as population growth, increasing life expectancy at birth, and improvements in infant mortality rate– are shaping the regions' healthcare demand. Notably, the proportion of population over 50 years is projected to increase from 12.7 per cent in 2024 to 13.8 per cent in 2029, further intensifying the demand for specialised healthcare services. Additionally, the expansion of health insurance coverage and the rise in medical tourism are expected to boost the utilisation of private hospitals and healthcare services. Despite these strong growth drivers, the GCC's healthcare sector faces several challenges. The industry remains highly reliant on foreign healthcare professionals across specialties. There also remains a gap in supply of specialised care units in the tertiary care segment, contributing to rising outbound medical tourism. Moreover, the cost of healthcare services continues to rise due to high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), increasing demand for advanced treatments, dependence on imported medical supplies, and a shortage of specialised treatment centres. In response, the GCC governments are actively promoting privatisation through public-private partnership (PPP) models to increase quality and efficiency of care. Significant investments in digital transformation aim to integrate innovative technologies for better healthcare outcomes. Another key trend, precision medicine and genomics are gaining traction with a goal of developing targeted treatments and therapies. Additionally, the rising demand for specialised and complex treatments is accelerating the establishment of Centres of Excellence (CoEs), long-term post-acute care (LTPAC) facilities and home healthcare services. As the sector continues to mature, PPPs are expected to bring about a shift in care delivery that will be pivotal in shaping the industry's landscape. With the GCC healthcare ecosystem becoming more digital and patient-centric, health-tech innovations present significant prospects for growth. Going forward, industry players are likely to focus on value-driven investments, with larger operators targeting smaller providers and tech-enabled healthcare firms to expand their service offerings.
