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Welcome to Canada Playbook. Ahead of today's swearing-in …
→ A guide to Cabinetmaking rumors and math.
→ The latest on Alberta's separatism discourse.
→ A little more by-election math for planning purposes.
Trade war
CABINET DAY — Later this morning, MARK CARNEY will introduce the country to a Cabinet built for crisis times. Today's swearing-in is just the latest stress test for a rookie prime minister and an anxious nation.
A new PM's Cabinet reveal always invites geeky office pools, unsolicited advice from all corners, inevitably bruised egos, and the best day ever for the people who swear an oath and meet their personal driver for the first time.
Carney and Co. have spent weeks — maybe months — sorting hardened veterans, star recruits, regional standouts and dozens of ambitious lawmakers.
Most won't make the cut.
— The names we know so far: A coordinated leak from the Prime Minister's Office on Monday advised the fishbowl to expect half of the Cabinet to be new faces.
The PMO also hinted there will be 'up to 10" secretaries of state. (That's a title for junior ministers, whose duties and influence have varied by era.)
— A glut of newbies: The rumor mill is churning. Tongues are wagging about former Hydro One Chair and Goldman alum TIM HODGSON; former broadcaster EVAN SOLOMON; former Saskatchewan minister BUCKLEY BELANGER; rookie Calgary MP COREY HOGAN and rookie Edmonton MP ELEANOR OLSZEWSKI; former IBM Canada President CLAUDE GUAY; former Delta Chamber of Commerce head JILL MCKNIGHT; former Vancouver Mayor GREGOR ROBERTSON; former Yellowknife Mayor REBECCA ALTY; gun control advocate NATHALIE PROVOST; former Quebec Finance Minister CARLOS LEITíO; and climate-focused public servant SHANNON MIEDEMA.
Cabinetmaking is often zero-sum. Adding one name subtracts another.
NERD MAGNETS — Carney campaigned on being Not Trudeau before heading to the Oval Office last week with DOMINIC LEBLANC and MÉLANIE JOLY, two ministers who helped to define the Trudeau era.
Both have forged key Trump 2.0 relationships in Washington, as has fellow Cabmin DAVID MCGUINTY. Few Ottawa prognosticators would count them out of U.S.-focused roles, though Global News sources are watching for Joly to be shuffled.
Let's consider the long list of variables that confronts every Prime Minister's Office as it assembles its executive team.
— Because it's 2025: As Playbook first reported during the leadership campaign, Carney has committed to tapping an equal number of men and women — a pledge that adds a layer of complexity to the exercise.
— The former deputy: In his pre-election Cabinet, Carney assigned leadership contest runner up CHRYSTIA FREELAND to the transport and internal trade portfolios. Busting barriers is a top priority in this new era. CBC News reports that Freeland will remain in some capacity. (CTV News pulled back a Monday report that Freeland was on the way out.)
→ History 101: Trudeau's first team included 11 Ontarians and seven Quebecers alongside three British Columbians, two Albertans, two Manitobans and one rep from every other province (plus a minister from Nunavut).
→ Prairie peeps: But a Cabinet packed with Laurentian elites carries risk in these days of separatist whispers in a pair of prairie provinces. The Liberals have options.
For the first time since 2019, Saskatchewan elected a Liberal. BUCKLEY BELANGER served in provincial NDP Cabinets for eight years. COREY HOGAN and ELEANOR OLSZEWSKI are new Albertan faces in each of that province's largest cities.
→ Nova Scotia-bound: KODY BLOIS picked up his province's only spot in Carney's first Cabinet, but now former Cabmin SEAN FRASER is back on the scene. The Toronto Star has sources saying Blois is out and Fraser is in.
A third name is in the mix: Halifax newcomer SHANNON MIEDEMA, first floated as a possible pick weeks back by the Globe's BOB FIFE.
→ The still-new crew: In March, Carney elevated ARIELLE KAYABAGA to government House leader — a high-pressure portfolio once the chamber is back in session. He also brought in ALI EHSASSI, one of the first MPs to endorse Carney's leadership bid.
→ The former ministers: A clutch of Trudeau-era power players won reelection. Rising star KARINA GOULD and Trudeau BFF MARC MILLER, who were left out of Carney Cabinet 1.0, are back for another term. Current destiny: Unknown.
→ Speculation overdrive: The Hill Times' ABBAS RANA floated even more names. B.C. MP RANDEEP SARAI cracked his 'rumored' list, alongside four-term Quebec MP JOËL LIGHTBOUND and former Trudeau deputy chief of staff MARJORIE MICHEL.
→ Overseas jobs: Canada hasn't had a top envoy in Germany for six months plus a day. RALPH GOODALE is nearing the end of his term in the U.K. after just over four years. STÉPHANE DION has headed up the Canadian Embassy in France for nearly three years.
Just in case somebody is in line for a soft landing.
→ Swearing-in eve post: Toronto MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH posted a GILDA RADNER quote on social media from a Second City show: 'Life is about not knowing, having to change, taking the moment and making the best of it without knowing what's going to happen next. Delicious ambiguity.'
→ A word on those left out: In his widely read book on government transitions, DAVID ZUSSMAN writes this of hopefuls on the outside looking in:
'While some MPs assume that they will be called, because of their proven loyalty to the prime minister or because of the need for gender or geographical balance, others will nervously sit by the phone, waiting for it to ring.'
Zussman's advice for PMs: 'It is good manners and probably good politics' to call the MPs who didn't make the cut.
And, of course, remind them of all the posts yet to be filled.
— In related reading: Advice from PAUL WELLS on putting it together.
LISTEN UP, OTTAWA
LONG-FORM POLITICS — Add COREY HOGAN, at least for now, to the list of substacking federal lawmakers. The rookie MP and longtime podcaster posted a thorough rebuttal to the mostly online arguments in favor of Alberta leaving Canada.
Hogan is only now getting his feet wet as an elected person in Ottawa. But amid all the onboarding, he countered claims that a sovereign Alberta could force Canada to build more pipelines, accrue more national wealth and perpetually elect conservative governments.
— Writers' club: Hogan joins a cadre of substackers that includes MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, TOM KMIEC, GARNETT GENUIS, RANDY HOBACK and NATE ERSKINE-SMITH.
— Headline takeaway: 'The next several months could be a dangerous time for Alberta,' Hogan wrote. 'It does not take a majority of Albertans voting to separate to severely damage our home — serious talk alone will be sufficient.'
— Referendum watch: CBC News' JASON MARKUSOFF reports on a potential question circulated by the Alberta Prosperity Project, which wants a provincewide vote pronto.
— Flashpoint watch: Alberta's government announced a freeze on the province's industrial carbon price at C$95 per ton, citing tariff-and-trade uncertainty.
In an interview with the Calgary Herald, Environment Minister REBECCA SCHULZ said the move 'does send a message to the federal government that we are not interested in making our industries uncompetitive at a time like this.'
→ Hot issue: Expect carbon tax politics to rank somewhere near the top of a briefing binder or two for new federal ministers sworn-in today.
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister MARK CARNEY will attend a Cabinet swearing-in ceremony at 10:30 a.m.
Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android .
For your radar
MORE NAPKIN MATH — Official election results are already popping up in the Canada Gazette — a key step in PIERRE POILIEVRE's eventual return to the House of Commons.
When the Gazette formalizes DAMIEN KUREK's win in Alberta's Battle River-Crowfoot riding, the date of publication will give a clearer sense of when he can resign — which paves the way for Poilievre to run for the vacant seat.
Monday's Playbook consulted the calendar. Here's how the math breaks down if the relevant Gazette edition is posted today.
→ Step 1: Kurek would be eligible to step down on June 12.
→ Step 2: The formal vacancy notice could come as early as the same day.
→ Step 3: A writ period could get underway as early as June 23.
→ Step 4: The by-election voting date window could open on July 29.
— A small wrinkle: The next available Monday, when by-elections are almost always scheduled, would be Aug. 4 — which happens to be a stat holiday. Back in 2005, a by-election in Labrador was held on the Tuesday following the Victoria Day long weekend.
— E-Day: The earliest possible voting day for Poilievre would be Tuesday, Aug. 5.
MORNING MUST-CLICKS
— POLITICO's RACHAEL BADE looks at the way DONALD TRUMP's midterm obsession is hovering over Capitol Hill.
— And from POLITICO's VICTORIA GUIDA, DANIEL DESROCHERS, MEGAN MESSERLY and PHELIM KINE: Why the US and China pulled back from the edge.
— KAREN WEISE of the NYT reports on negotiations over the Columbia River basin.
— From DAVE WADDELL in the Windsor Star: Could the 1965 Auto Pact point to a 2025 trade war solution for Canada?
— PHIL TANK writes in the Saskatoon StarPhoenix on the state of play for the upcoming meeting between PM Carney and the premiers: 'Regardless of Liberal fortunes in Saskatoon, the city provides a microcosm for issues afflicting cities across Canada, like homelessness and addiction. Let's hope none of the first ministers get attacked with bear spray, which has become an epidemic here.'
— In the National Post, KELLY MCPARLAND urges the PM to 'make a sensible decision' about 24 Sussex.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to GURRATAN SINGH of Crestview Strategy, MEGAN BUTTLE of Earnscliffe Strategies, Ontario Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA, and GUY CARON, mayor of Rimouski, Quebec (and former NDP MP).
HBD + 1 to Rogers Communications GR guy HARDAVE BIRK.
Noted: PIERRE POILIEVRE is staying put in the residence of the leader of the Official Opposition, IAN BAILEY reports.
Spotted: Outgoing Conservative comms guy SEBASTIAN SKAMSKI, fêted Monday by staffer colleagues and Hill journalists alike.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.
PROZONE
The latest headlines for our paid subscribers:
— How long will Trump's tariff revenue surge last?
— US and China slash tariffs as trade war cools.
— Revoking EPA climate rule could trigger carbon boom.
— Pipeline enforcement plunges in Trump's first months.
— Low-carbon steel project scales back on hydrogen.
TRIVIA
Monday's answer: ROY SLEMON was the first deputy commander of NORAD.
Props to ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN ALHO, MAIA EASTMAN, JOHN PEPPER, GARY ALLEN, DENNIS NAUGHTON, BOB GORDON, SCOTT LOHNES, DARRYL DAMUDE, LAURA JARVIS, PETER STUDER and MARCEL MARCOTTE.
Today's question: How many ministers were there in Canada's very first Cabinet?
Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .
Wednesday's Playbook will be written by MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.
Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
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The Hill
28 minutes ago
- The Hill
Canada plans to hit NATO spending target early and reduce reliance on US defense, Carney says
TORONTO (AP) — Canada will meet NATO's military spending guideline by early next year and diversify defense spending away from the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday, asserting that Washington no longer plays a predominant role on the world stage. The announcement means Canada will achieve NATO's spending target of 2% of gross domestic product five years earlier than previously planned. 'Our military infrastructure and equipment have aged, hindering our military preparedness,' Carney said. 'Only one of our four submarines is seaworthy. Less than half of our maritime fleet and land vehicles are operational. More broadly, we are too reliant on the United States.' According to NATO figures, Canada was estimated to be spending 1.33% of GDP on its military budget in 2023, below the 2% target that NATO countries have set for themselves. Canada previously said it was on track to meet NATO's target by the end of the decade. 'Our goal is to protect Canadians, not to satisfy NATO accountants,' Carney said in a speech at the University of Toronto. Canada is about to host U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders at a summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in Alberta on June 15-17, and before the NATO summit in Europe. NATO allies are poised to increase the commitment well beyond the 2% target. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week that most U.S. allies at NATO endorse Trump's demand that they invest 5% of gross domestic product on their defense needs and are ready to ramp up security spending even more. 'We are meeting 2%. And that is the NATO target as it is today,' Carney said at a later news conference. 'We will need to spend more.' He said there will be discussions on the increased spending amount and its timeline at the NATO summit. Carney has said he intends to diversify Canada's procurement and enhance the country's relationship with the EU. 'We should no longer send three-quarters of our defense capital spending to America,' Carney said in a speech at the University of Toronto. 'We will invest in new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles and artillery, as well as new radar, drones and sensors to monitor the seafloor and the Arctic.' Canada has been in discussions with the European Union to join an EU drive to break its security dependency on the United States, with a focus on buying more defense equipment, including fighter jets, in Europe. Carney's government is reviewing the purchase of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options. 'We stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans throughout the Cold War and in the decades that followed, as the United States played a predominant role on the world stage. Today, that predominance is a thing of the past,' Carney said in French, one of Canada's official languages. He added that with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the United States became the global hegemon, noting that its strong gravitational pull became virtually irresistible and made the U.S. 'our closest ally and dominant trading partner.' 'Now the United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony: charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security,' Carney said. Carney later said at the news conference that it was 'understandable' that the U.S. is providing a lower degree of security. 'So we are stepping up,' he said. Trump's calls to make Canada the 51st U.S. state have infuriated Canadians, and Carney won the job of prime minister after promising to confront the increased aggression shown by Trump. The prime minister said 'a new imperialism threatens.' 'Middle powers compete for interests and attention, knowing that if they are not at the table, they will be on the menu,' Carney said during his speech. Carney said the long-held view that Canada's geographic location will protect Canadians is increasingly archaic. European allies and Canada have already been investing heavily in their armed forces, as well as on weapons and ammunition, since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
2 hours ago
Canada plans to hit NATO spending target early and reduce US defense reliance, Carney says
TORONTO -- Canada will meet NATO's military spending guideline by early next year and diversify defense spending away from the United States, which he says no longer plays a predominant role on the world stage, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday. Carney said Canada will achieve NATO's spending target of 2% of gross domestic product five years earlier than it had previously planned. 'Our military infrastructure and equipment have aged, hindering our military preparedness," Carney said. 'Only one of our four submarines is seaworthy. Less than half of our maritime fleet and land vehicles are operational. More broadly we are too reliant on the United States.' According to NATO figures, Canada was estimated to be spending 1.33% of GDP on its military budget in 2023, below the 2% target that NATO countries have set for themselves. Canada previously said it was on track to meet NATO's spending target by the end of the decade. 'Our goal is to protect Canadians, not to satisfy NATO accountants,' Carney said. The announcement of increased spending came as Canada is about to host U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders at a summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in Alberta on June 15-17, and before the NATO summit in Europe. It also comes as NATO allies are poised to increase the commitment well beyond the 2% target. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week that most U.S. allies at NATO endorse Trump's demand that they invest 5% of gross domestic product on their defense needs and are ready to ramp up security spending even more. Carney has said that he intends to diversify Canada's procurement and enhance the country's relationship with the EU. 'We should no longer send three quarters of our defense capital spending to America,' Carney said in a speech at the University of Toronto. 'We will invest in new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles and artillery, as well as new radar, drones and sensors to monitor the seafloor and the Arctic.' Canada has been in discussions with the European Union to join an EU drive to break its security dependency on the United States, with a focus on buying more defense equipment, including fighter jets, in Europe. Carney's government is reviewing the purchase of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options. 'We stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans throughout the Cold War and in the decades that followed, as the United States played a predominant role on the world stage. Today, that predominance is a thing of the past,' Carney said in French. He added that with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the United States became the global hegemon, noting its gravitational pull, always strong, became virtually irresistible and made the U.S. 'our closest ally and dominant trading partner.' 'Now the United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony: charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security,' Carney said. The prime minister said that "a new imperialism threatens.' 'Middle powers compete for interests and attention, knowing that if they are not at the table, they will be on the menu," Carney said. Trump's calls to make Canada the 51st U.S. state have infuriated Canadians, and Carney won the job of prime minister after promising to confront the increased aggression shown by Trump. Carney said that the long-held view that Canada's geographic location will protect Canadians is becoming increasingly archaic. full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
San Francisco Chronicle
2 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Canada plans to hit NATO spending target early and reduce reliance on US defense, Carney says
TORONTO (AP) — Canada will meet NATO's military spending guideline by early next year and diversify defense spending away from the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday, asserting that Washington no longer plays a predominant role on the world stage. The announcement means Canada will achieve NATO's spending target of 2% of gross domestic product five years earlier than previously planned. 'Our military infrastructure and equipment have aged, hindering our military preparedness," Carney said. 'Only one of our four submarines is seaworthy. Less than half of our maritime fleet and land vehicles are operational. More broadly, we are too reliant on the United States.' According to NATO figures, Canada was estimated to be spending 1.33% of GDP on its military budget in 2023, below the 2% target that NATO countries have set for themselves. Canada previously said it was on track to meet NATO's target by the end of the decade. 'Our goal is to protect Canadians, not to satisfy NATO accountants,' Carney said. Canada is about to host U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders at a summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in Alberta on June 15-17, and before the NATO summit in Europe. NATO allies are poised to increase the commitment well beyond the 2% target. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week that most U.S. allies at NATO endorse Trump's demand that they invest 5% of gross domestic product on their defense needs and are ready to ramp up security spending even more. Carney has said he intends to diversify Canada's procurement and enhance the country's relationship with the EU. 'We should no longer send three-quarters of our defense capital spending to America,' Carney said in a speech at the University of Toronto. 'We will invest in new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles and artillery, as well as new radar, drones and sensors to monitor the seafloor and the Arctic.' Canada has been in discussions with the European Union to join an EU drive to break its security dependency on the United States, with a focus on buying more defense equipment, including fighter jets, in Europe. Carney's government is reviewing the purchase of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options. 'We stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans throughout the Cold War and in the decades that followed, as the United States played a predominant role on the world stage. Today, that predominance is a thing of the past,' Carney said in French, one of Canada's official languages. He added that with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the United States became the global hegemon, noting that its strong gravitational pull became virtually irresistible and made the U.S. 'our closest ally and dominant trading partner.' 'Now the United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony: charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security,' Carney said. Trump's calls to make Canada the 51st U.S. state have infuriated Canadians, and Carney won the job of prime minister after promising to confront the increased aggression shown by Trump. The prime minister said "a new imperialism threatens.' 'Middle powers compete for interests and attention, knowing that if they are not at the table, they will be on the menu," Carney said. Carney said the long-held view that Canada's geographic location will protect Canadians is increasingly archaic. European allies and Canada have already been investing heavily in their armed forces, as well as on weapons and ammunition, since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
