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Politico
4 hours ago
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- Politico
Hot n cold
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → The PM gets room to move — but not for long. → PIERRE POILIEVRE steps back into the spotlight. → Plus, PMJT and a pop star hit the town and blow up the internet. Trade war SUMMER OF LOVE — Canadians are not about to punish Prime Minister MARK CARNEY for chaos beyond his control. Despite campaigning on his ability to strike a deal with President DONALD TRUMP, pollsters say Carney is unlikely to pay a political price if he doesn't deliver by Friday. 'He's got some leeway. He's got some space to play a little bit of hardball from a public opinion standpoint,' SHACHI KURL, president of the Angus Reid Institute, told Playbook. — Now the big caveat: 'Public opinion will — and can — change the minute this starts to really punch Canadians in their pocketbooks.' — Elbow test: After Carney made a concession to Trump by abandoning the digital services tax, Abacus Data CEO DAVID COLETTO tested whether Canadians thought the PM's elbows were up or down. → Survey says: Elbows up. Coletto shared some unreleased data showing more than half of Canadians willing to give the PM the benefit of the doubt, recognizing Trump as unpredictable and uncontrollable. 'I don't see evidence that people are feeling that the decisions the government's made up to this moment are hurting Carney's personal numbers or the government's approval ratings,' Coletto told Playbook. 'I don't see evidence that they're challenging his motivations and his capacity to make the call.' — What Canadians want from the PM: That he puts Canada's interests ahead of political gain, understands the challenges facing ordinary people, has a plan for the country and communicates openly and clearly — according to new research from Abacus Data. — What Canadians like about the PM: That he's a calm and steady force, avoids unnecessary conflict, doesn't pick fights and provides thoughtful answers, Coletto said. And notably — he's not JUSTIN TRUDEAU. — PM's blindspots: Canadians struggle to relate to Carney's global-elite status, but they aren't especially bothered by it. — One love: Canadian premiers aren't budging from the PM's side. At last week's premiers' meeting in Muskoka, Ontario, Playbook asked Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON, a Progressive Conservative, what more the federal government could be doing. 'The abilities of the prime minister are something that I'm confident in,' Houston replied. — Unbreakable bond: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD says the premiers are united — at least as long as there's a trade war to fight together. 'We came up with a consensus around the table on how we tackle this situation with President Trump,' he told reporters Monday in Toronto. Even Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH has nice things to say about Carney. — MIA: With Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE focused on winning back a seat in the House of Commons, the PM has benefited from a lack of high-profile critics questioning his negotiating chops. — The other shoe: Kurl argues Carney is likely to be judged by the kind of deal he eventually secures with the U.S. — not whether he meets Friday's deadline. 'There still continues to be this very 'elbows up, take a hard line,' bloody-minded mentality,' Kurl said. — Elbows down territory: 'When we start to unfortunately see furloughs and layoffs and mills shutting down and factories shutting down — and all of the impacts to related economies,' Kurl added. — In related reading: DAVID AGREN reports on Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM's attempts to mollify Trump. A Mexican trade expert tells the Globe: 'Without clear benchmarks, it's really easy for the U.S. government to just keep moving the goal posts.' LISTEN UP, OTTAWA LAST NIGHT IN CAMROSE — PIERRE POILIEVRE is back in campaign mode. He opened his pitch to Battle River-Crowfoot voters with a nod to the values he says he learned in Alberta — 'faith, family and freedom, hard work, helping your neighbors.' And he pledged to be a 'powerful megaphone' against EV mandates — 'because driving a pickup truck is a local issue' — and a defender of law-abiding gun owners. The Conservative leader thanked DAMIEN KUREK, who won the riding in April with 83 percent of the vote, for stepping aside to clear the path for his return. — State of play: ÉRIC GRENIER of The Writ calls Battle River-Crowfoot one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. Our pal PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER at 338Canada says the race doesn't look close. — Everybody in: At an April election forum hosted by the Camrose & District Chamber of Commerce, only a single candidate showed up — reports FAKIHA BAIG of The Canadian Press. Last night, nine candidates shared the stage with Poilievre, including Independent BONNIE CRITCHLEY, Liberal DARCY SPADY and NDP candidate KATHERINE SWAMPY. The would-be MPs and the Conservative leader without a seat fielded questions from constituents assembled in advance. Most used a prompt about the economy to air their views on immigration, though there was a dedicated section for that issue as well. At one point, Critchley challenged Poilievre's candidacy: 'You don't know what's going on here unless you live here.' For most of the forum — which included a 20-minute intermission — candidates took turns blaming Ottawa. Poilievre, an Ottawa-area MP for more than two decades, pointed his finger directly at the Liberals. — For the record: There are more than 200 candidates in the race. Most are associated with the 'Longest Ballot Committee,' a group pushing for electoral reform. 'Many people would agree with their stated objectives,' writes Dalhousie's LORI TURNBULL. 'But let's call B.S. on the tactics.' — Long and short of it: Elections Canada announced this week it will use an adapted ballot. CHRIS SELLEY of the National Post explains: 'Instead of marking your X on a ballot as long as a beach towel, you will write down your chosen candidate's name.' Spelling won't count on voting day. 'As long as your intention is clear, your vote will be counted,' the agency said. Poilievre called the ballot protest a scam. 'When, God willing, if I have your support and I get to Parliament, I will put forward legislative changes to make sure that this never happens again,' he said last night. Election day is Aug. 18. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC is heading to Washington. — The PM will chair a virtual Cabinet meeting at 2 p.m. on the state of the negotiations with the United States and the situation in the Middle East. Carney spoke Tuesday with PM KEIR STARMER, who has vowed the U.K. will recognize a Palestinian state in September unless the Israeli government takes 'substantive steps' to end the crisis in Gaza. The Globe reports that the Carney government is weighing its response. — Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM will make an interest rate announcement at 9:45 a.m. today. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . TALK OF THE TOWN BOOM, BOOM, BOOM — JUSTIN TRUDEAU and KATY PERRY went for a walk Monday in Montreal, ate dinner at a top-notch resto, and then briefly took over the internet when TMZ was first to publish photos of the high-profile hang at Restaurant Le Violon. — More American eyes: People had a take. So did Slate, E! News, Cosmopolitan — the list goes on south of the border. Back home, fishbowl dwellers went all in on speculating, gossiping and obsessing about what the former prime minister and touring pop star were up to together. Every question raised another. → Questions, questions: Were they on a date? Was it all a sly PR move meant to generate a few headlines? Would Trudeau take in Perry's Tuesday night show in Ottawa — or her next concert tonight in Montreal? If the Trudeau-Perry encounter was supposed to stay quiet: uh, whoops. Everybody in Canada got in on it: CP, the Star, the Post, CBC, CTV and on and on. Call it a welcome midsummer distraction from tariffs, trade and roiling geopolitics. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — POLITICO's West Wing Playbook considers how U.S. allies have adapted to Trump and his governing style — no longer treating him as an outcast but as a critical partner and, in recognition of the premium he places on personal relationships, a friend. — CATHERINE MORRISON of The Canadian Press reports that Statistics Canada has announced plans to end most term and casual employment contracts by October. — PAUL WELLS explains why former PM STEPHEN HARPER's counsel is worth hearing. — POLITICO's ALEX GUILLÉN reports on the Trump administration's proposed move to repeal the U.S. federal government's bedrock scientific declaration on the dangers of greenhouse gases. — 'He's been in constant contact with them, as is the prime minister,' Calgary Chamber of Commerce CEO DEBORAH YEDLIN says of Energy Minister TIM HODGSON's reachout to the energy sector. 'We haven't had that kind of dialogue in a very, very, very long time,' she tells the Calgary Herald. PROZONE The latest Pro Canada PM subscriber newsletter: Walking backward toward a deal. Our latest headlines for POLITICO Pro readers: — Interior push to fast-track minerals-from-waste projects faces backlash. — Meet the only US company building an advanced reactor. — Italian court allows climate lawsuit against energy giant to proceed. — Lutnick says U.S. will continue to press EU on digital services taxes. — Europe learned to love American LNG. This is how Trump wrecks it. LOBBY WATCH Our daily check-in on federal lobbyist registrations and notable meetings around town: — Alcoa Canada, the subsidiary of the U.S.-based aluminum producer, logged July meetings with a spate of senior political staff and bureaucrats: — Crestview's MIRA AHMAD registered to lobby on behalf of the Public Service Alliance of Canada. On the priority list: 'Federal public service workforce reductions, including staffing cuts, outsourcing, job security concerns, and the long-term impacts on service delivery and the capacity of the public service.' PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON, former Quebec MNA LORRAINE RICHARD, Alberta MLA JOE CECI and former Conservative MP KELLIE LEITCH (55!) Noted: The PM spoke with Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on Tuesday afternoon. The 'Auto Mayors' want the federal government to ax the EV sales mandate. The Globe's ERIC ATKINS has the details. Movers and shakers: CATHAY WAGANTALL, a Conservative MP from Saskatchewan, announced that she will not seek reelection in the next federal election … VICTORIA LACHANCE joined McMillan Vantage as a consultant. Former Health Minister MARK HOLLAND was named CEO of the Canadian National Exhibition … KATHERINE CUPLINSKAS is senior manager of media relations at Bell Canada … Fortinet, the cybersecurity company, appointed longtime senior Hill staffer MIKE POWER as Canada's head of government affairs. The U.S. Senate has approved the nomination of WILLIAM KIMMITT to be undersecretary of Commerce for international trade. POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS reports that Kimmitt served as counselor to then-U.S. Trade Representative ROBERT LIGHTHIZER in the first Trump administration. According to Kimmitt's law firm biography, he was also deeply involved in implementing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. TRIVIA Tuesday's answer: Prince CHARLES and Lady DIANA SPENCER wed on July 28, 1981. For wedding gifts, Canada presented antique Canadian furniture, books by Canadian authors, a painting by ROBERT BATEMAN and a brooch. Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, RAY DEL BIANCO, BARB SULLIVAN, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, JOHN PEPPER, CAMERON BISHOP, CAMERON RYAN, JENN KEAY, MALCOLM MCKAY, ELIZABETH BURN, and GANGA WIGNARAJAH. Wednesday's question: Then-PM JOHN DIEFENBAKER officially opened the Trans-Canada Highway in 1962. In what year was it finally completed? Answers to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
a day ago
- Business
- Politico
Let 'em cook
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → Inside the unfolding drama of Canada-U.S. trade talks. → STEPHEN HARPER offers cross-border advice. Also, he's writing a memoir. Trade war TALKING IN CIRCLES — Despite months of back and forth in rooms ranging from mountainous Kananaskis, Alberta, to steamy Washington, D.C., Canada has not managed to secure final terms of an economic and security deal with the U.S. President DONALD TRUMP said talks with MARK CARNEY's government are 'not really a negotiation.' It's a point some Canadian officials agree with. Playbook spoke to four senior officials familiar with negotiations from various federal and provincial perspectives. They were granted anonymity to discuss private talks. Behind closed doors, Canadian and U.S. officials have spent months circling the same unresolved issues, with Trump's team sidestepping specifics, a senior Canadian government official tells Playbook. — Face-to-face meetings: Officials describe the meetings between Canadian officials — Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN — and U.S. officials, Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK and Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT, as chaotic and one-sided, with the Americans recycling grievances and offering no clear path forward. Lutnick or Bessent often riff off Trump's greatest hits, raising security issues at the U.S. border, complaining about fentanyl smuggling and asking why Canada treats the U.S. unfairly. Trump's team swerves to a new topic every time they meet, the senior federal government official said. LeBlanc mainly listens, the same official told Playbook. — Defending the talks: 'The way this has worked with our trading partners who have secured deals, or are making progress towards one, is that they came to us with deal offers, that were then refined and negotiated further,' a White House official said in a statement. — What Canada wants: Carney has conceded any deal with Trump is likely to include some level of tariffs. Now the Liberal government wants stability, especially around tariffs invoked using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. — Feeling the pain: The trade war is pummelling Canada's auto, steel, aluminum and forestry industries and leading to a decline in investment. The Carney government wants those tariffs eliminated, or lowered to a fixed level that doesn't fluctuate, the senior government official said. 'If we know what world we're going into, then we can have better plans and policies to attract investment.' — Sharing notes: Japan, the European Union and Mexico have traded notes with Canada on the unconventional negotiations, discussing what it's like to deal with Trump's administration. — List of demands: One Mexican business official said the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative presented a list of demands that includes issues surrounding intellectual property and energy. Canada has not received such a list, a senior Canadian government official said. Read more from MICKEY DJURIC and POLITICO's trade team in Washington. PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for POLITICO Pro subscribers: Trade war watch. From Pro reporters DANIEL DESROCHERS, BEN LEFEBVRE and DOUG PALMER: Trump got his tariff hike. The rest remains murky. More trade headlines for our paid subscribers: — White House trade deal with Europe runs into energy market realities. — French PM slams EU-US trade deal as 'submission' to Trump. — The winners (there are some) and losers from the EU's trade deal with Trump. — EU to lower car tariffs to zero percent in trade deal. — Trump says US will 'look at' blanket 10 percent tariff on UK goods. Caught our ear HARPER THE ANALYST — Somebody who works somewhere in the Carney government recently asked former Prime Minister Stephen Harper for advice on Trump. Harper was a keynote speaker Monday morning at the Council of State Governments' Midwestern Legislative Conference in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He wasn't more specific about who reached out, but acknowledged his advice wasn't what it would've been in 2024. (We've asked Carney's office to confirm any conversations.) 'I would have said, a year ago, this is a real opportunity for Canada to really deepen its economic and security partnership with the United States,' he told the audience of lawmakers gathered in the Prairie city. → Diversity now: 'My advice was the opposite,' he said. 'We've gotta get something short term worked out with the Trump administration, but this really is a wakeup call for this country to truly diversify its trade export markets.' (Cue applause.) → Sovereignty play: The former PM was all for boosting defense spending. His advice to Carney: 'Let's make sure we spend a lot more on defense, so that we can be independently responsible for our own land, seas and skies, independent of the United States.' (Cue more applause.) → Spread the word: 'This is the advice that every allied capital is getting from everybody like me they talk to,' Harper said. — On Trump: Harper, who reminded the crowd his academic specialty covered fiscal policy and economic history, offered a blunt review of Trump's 'Tariff Man' approach to trade. 'Comprehensive protectionism, the idea of using tariff barriers to raise revenue and comprehensively relocate industries … this is a failed economic policy where it has been tried,' he said. — Veiled shot: Asked about his frequent trips to India by moderator VICTOR THOMAS, president and CEO of the Canada-India Business Council, Harper cracked a joke at his successor's expense. 'I like to say I went there partly because in India, I was admired for my sense of fashion,' he said to laughter. 'Canadians will know what that's about.' (For those who don't know: Former PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU made unflattering international headlines for his sartorial choices during a fraught 2018 visit. Maclean's dubbed him 'The Mr. Dressup prime minister.') — On Modi: Amid bilateral unpleasantness that appears ready for a reset, Harper made his case for closer Canada-India ties. 'India is one of the rare democratic countries these days that has, whether you like Modi or do not like Modi, a leader who is in a strong political position and moving his country forward in a very clear direction.' Thomas didn't ask about India's alleged role in the recent bilateral deep freeze. — For your bookshelf: Harper told the crowd he just completed the first draft of his memoir. But he immediately tempered expectations: 'I have to be honest. All the best stories can't go in. They really can't.' — 12 words of bliss: Life after politics has its perks, said Harper, who runs a global consultancy and chairs an international federation of conservative parties. The former PM put it succinctly: 'I have a lot less stress. I make a lot more money.' THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — Prime Minister MARK CARNEY has no public events on his itinerary. — U.S. Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA delivers a lunchtime keynote at the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. Hoekstra is set to explore 'the evolving trade landscape, shared security priorities, and the global economic forces reshaping our cross-border relationship.' Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . MORNING MUST-CLICKS — President Trump said Monday that he will work with European allies to 'set up food centers' in Gaza, POLITICO's MYAH WARD reports. — From our colleagues in Brussels: Under-fire EU says trade deal with Trump was best it could do. And also: EU admits it can't guarantee $600B promise to Trump. — JACK DETSCH, PAUL MCLEARY and FELICIA SCHWARTZ report on the repercussions of the 'think tank ban,' which prevents employees from taking part in such events as the Halifax International Security Forum. — 'Poilievre looks as if he's frightened of his own base,' PressProgress editor LUKE LEBRUN writes in a Star column. 'This dynamic is key to understanding why he keeps pandering to this constituency even when it comes at the cost of hurting his party's chances among mainstream voters or, evidently, undermining trust in our institutions.' — DARREN MAJOR of CBC News has the latest from Elections Canada, which now says voters will need to write in their desired candidate when they vote in the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election. — The Globe reports: Toronto has spent more than half the summer so far under heat warnings. LOBBY WATCH A daily check-in on federal lobbyist registrations and notable meetings around town: — Sussex Strategy's DAN LOVELL logged a Monday meeting with Energy Minister TIM HODGSON and WALE OYEBANJO, senior policy and major projects adviser in the minister's office. — TACTIX's ERIN GORMAN and JEAN-MICHEL LAURIN registered to lobby on behalf of Merck Canada. Top priority: 'Exploring funding opportunities for a biopharmaceutical technology startup accelerator initiative.' — Strategies North Advisory's AUSTIN GLOVER logged recent meetings on behalf of Kee Tas Kee Now Tribal Council, a group of First Nations in northern Alberta advocating for 'critical infrastructure on-reserve, such as educational and community facilities.' Glover posted meetings with bureaucrats at Public Safety Canada and policy advisers in Health Minister MARJORIE MICHEL's office. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former Cabmin MARCI IEN, Bloomberg's LAURA DHILLON KANE and former MP DAVID DE BURGH GRAHAM. Noted: Auto theft in Canada declined by 19 percent in the first half of this year, compared to the first six months of 2024, according to a report from the insurance industry organization Équité Association. PAUL DANS, one of the chief authors of the controversial Project 2025, is launching a GOP primary challenge against Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), with a formal announcement expected Wednesday, AP reports. Movers and shakers: Rubicon Strategy added DAVID KNIGHT LEGG as a senior adviser … EMILY GRANT was promoted to senior advance in the PMO … TD Bank names JOHN MACINTYRE as new board chair. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Monday's answer: CAMILLA, the queen consort, was photographed reading 'The Grey Wolf' by Canadian author LOUISE PENNY. Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, JENN KEAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BARBARA GRANTHAM, RAYLENE LANG, GREG MACEACHERN, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, JOHN MATHESON, PATRICK JUNEAU, DALE BARBOUR, A. PETRIC, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ELIZABETH BURN, BARBARA SULLIVAN, JOANNA PLATER, JOHN PEPPER, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, BOB GORDON, RAY DEL BIANCO, MARC SHAW, DARRYL DAMUDE, CAMERON BISHOP and MARC HUMBERT. Today's question: Prince CHARLES and Lady DIANA SPENCER wed on this date in 1981. What did Canada present to the couple as wedding gifts? Answers to canadaplaybook@ . Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
2 days ago
- Business
- Politico
Tariff roulette
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to a week that could define Canada's economic future — or deepen its trade crisis. In today's edition of Canada Playbook: → As Canada hopes for an August deal, Trump is chasing trade wins elsewhere. → A midsummer dollop of news on interest rates and economic growth. → Why EU Ambassador GENEVIÈVE TUTS is hawkish on transatlantic bonds. Trade war SUMMER BLOCKBUSTER — Aug. 1 approaches, the day Canada and the U.S. are expected to strike a new economic and security deal — or not. Prime Minister MARK CARNEY and President DONALD TRUMP have recently sought to temper expectations. — He's just not that into you: The White House has informed Canada that it is not the priority at the moment, Playbook has learned. Trump, who is in Europe, is focused on securing agreements with other countries, like India. — Get in line: In Scotland on Sunday, Trump struck a trade deal with the European Union, locking in a 15 percent tariff. It follows his deal with Japan last week, though there are questions about that one. → Trump's Canada take: 'We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada,' the president told reporters outside the White House on Friday. 'I think Canada could be one where they'll just pay tariffs, not really a negotiation,' he said. — State of play: The president is unpredictable, and Canadian officials don't often know what he's going to do until he does it. — For example: Trump caught Canada off guard when he paused negotiations over the digital services tax. He blindsided them again when he sent Carney a letter to say tariffs on Canadian goods would increase to 35 percent on Aug. 1. — The devil in the details: The White House is playing coy about whether the 35 percent tariff would exempt goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. While the U.S. has suggested that would be the case, the decision ultimately lies with Trump. Canada will view the lack of an exemption as a serious setback at the table. → Why it matters: That exemption would mean most Canadian businesses would retain tariff-free access to the U.S. market. 'The vast majority of Canadian goods and services are tariff-free,' Carney told reporters last week in Hamilton, Ontario. — In related news: The Globe's JASON KIRBY and MARK RENDELL explain why in a world of tariff pain, USMCA gives Canada an edge — for now. — But, but, but: Trump's tariffs are hammering four Canadian sectors: steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. Another could soon be hit: Trump said a new 50 percent tariff on imported copper will take effect Aug. 1. — Where we go from here: Canada is looking for certainty, so it can provide relief for impacted sectors and stability to investors. So far, officials have been dodging questions about further retaliation, but the Liberal government previously promised to match Trump's tariffs on aluminum if they don't reach a deal. — Worth noting: The Globe's NOJOUD AL MALLEES reports that the government collected about C$1.5 billion more in import duties in April and May over the same period last year, a 180 percent increase thanks to countertariffs. — Trump insists: He will negotiate with 'three or four other countries' before Aug. 1. Others will have just his letter. 'Most of the others are going to be a certain tariff and we're going to keep it as low as we can. They're generally smaller countries or countries we don't do much business with, but they've already received, to a large extent, they've received a letter,' Trump said Sunday. → Coming up: Trump said countries that don't get a deal will receive a confirmation letter this week. Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK said other countries can keep talking to Trump beyond that date. 'I mean, he's always willing to listen. And between now and then, I think the president's going to talk to a lot of people. Whether they can make him happy is another question,' Lutnick said on 'Fox News Sunday.' Negotiators on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border will keep talking. — In related reading from POLITICO: 'Donaldddddd': Foreign leaders schmooze Trump on his personal cell. THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING ECONOMIC INDICATORS This week's data could reinforce fears Canada is tipping into recession: — On Wednesday, interest rates: Most bank economists think TIFF MACKLEM will hold the Bank of Canada's policy rate steady at 2.75 percent. Macklem also stood pat in June and April announcements after seven consecutive cuts dating to 2024. 'At this point, there is a bit less than a 50% chance of even one cut priced in for the rest of 2025,' BMO's DOUG PORTER wrote in a lookahead note. In their own note, RBC's CLAIRE FAN and ABBEY XU sized up the impact of stubbornly high core inflation measures, a 'weakening but relatively resilient economic backdrop' and the potential for increased federal spending amid the threat of permanent tariffs. Their conclusion: 'We do not expect the [bank] will cut again in this cycle.' — On Thursday, GDP data: Most bank economists are projecting a slight turn to the negative for month-over-month May numbers. Porter raised the specter of an economy that shrinks in the second quarter of 2025. A decline in consecutive quarters meets the technical definition of recession. (But remember: Q1 GDP grew by 2.2 percent — exceeding expectations.) THE EPSTEIN CRISIS Scandal dominates U.S. newscycles as fallout continues: The president failed to move the news cycle past JEFFREY EPSTEIN last week, and the narrative shows no sign of fading. — In related reading: ANKUSH KHARDORI, a senior writer for POLITICO Magazine and a former federal prosecutor at the Department of Justice, annotates shifts in the Trump administration's rhetoric in response to the scandal. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO GAZA Canada continues to recalibrate its foreign policy: Foreign Affairs Minister ANITA ANAND is in New York today for a United Nations conference on achieving a Palestinian state, The Star reports. Prime Minister MARK CARNEY has called Israel's 'denial of humanitarian aid' in Gaza 'a violation of international law.' The PM has stopped short of following France, which will recognize a Palestinian state in September, the first G7 nation to do so. Trump is also due to meet with British PM KEIR STARMER today to talk about the need for a ceasefire in Gaza. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM Carney will make an affordability announcement in Prince County, Prince Edward Island at 9:30 a.m. — Former PM STEPHEN HARPER will deliver a keynote at the Midwestern Legislative Conference annual meeting in Saskatoon at 9:30 a.m. local time. Topic: The importance and future of the Canada-U.S. relationship. PLAYBOOK'S ONE-ON-ONE 'NOT JUST … BLAH BLAH BLAH' — As the PM talks a big game about reducing Canada's dependence on the United States, the European Union's top envoy in Canada insists transatlantic bonds are tightening between Ottawa and Brussels. 'Something is happening now, very concretely, not just political blah blah blah,' GENEVIÈVE TUTS told Playbook in an interview in her office on Friday. — Seriously: Tuts described June's EU-Canada summit as 'not just symbolic,' but a 'crucial' and 'historic' moment for the longtime allies in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and global tariff tension. 'I felt a real commitment to deliver on very concrete topics.' — Once more, with feeling: 'This was not a show,' said Tuts, whose note-taking tic — we all have one — is repeatedly drawing circles around her scribbles. 'This was a strong willingness, and this was sincere.' — More trade, please: Tuts was hawkish on expanding business takeup on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement — Canada's free-trade deal with the EU first applied provisionally in 2017. 'It's good, but we could go from good to great,' she says. The 'main challenge' is making sure businesses that do trade are aware of CETA, Tuts said. She points to a new EU-Canada industrial policy dialogue, as well as nascent negotiations on a digital trade agreement, as opportunities to get the word out. → There's an app for that: Tuts nodded to creative solutions to 'matchmaking' companies on opposite sides of the Atlantic. 'I had a discussion in Brussels with one of my colleagues who was even talking about having an app, a sort of Tinder CETA, to organize this matchmaking process,' Tuts said. — Let's talk: Our colleagues in Europe have reported on formal talks between the European Commission and Canada, as well as Japan, to coordinate responses to Trump tariffs. → Well, d'uh: Tuts described those conversations as a no-brainer. 'This is not surprising that people facing the same challenges, people who are allies and friends, talk to each other,' she told us. 'The relationship between President von der Leyen and Prime Minister Carney is very good. They know each other. They speak the same language. They understand each other. And they talk to each other on a regular basis.' — ICYMI: HBD +2 to Tuts, who celebrated Saturday. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — 'There's no shortage of people in Ottawa trying to think big thoughts. I think if there's a problem it's at the service delivery,' author and scholar DONALD J. SAVOIE tells AMNA AHMAD in a National Post Q&A. — From AARON WHERRY over the weekend: Can Mark Carney move fast and not break things? — The NDP has released the rules for its leadership race. Via DAVID BAXTER of The Canadian Press: 'They're telling candidates they must gather specific numbers of signatures from supporters in diverse regional, racial and LGBTQ+ groups.' — Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED told the Globe's EMILY HAWS that in the next decade Inuit are looking to build 79 projects, totaling about C$30 billion. — The PM sat with APTN's DENNIS WARD for a one-on-one interview. — In his latest missive, PAUL WELLS observes 'there is a notable droop to the once proudly waving Canadian elbow.' LOBBY WATCH Our daily check-in on federal lobbyist registrations and notable meetings around town: — Westport Fuel Systems, a fuel delivery component supplier, posted a July 24 meeting with PMO policy coordinator JOSHUA SWIFT. The company is advocating for federal programs that 'encourage the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles — specifically vehicles that use natural gas and/or hydrogen as a primary fuel.' PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to MARCO MENDICINO, former Cabmin who served briefly as Carney's chief of staff. Greetings also to Sandstone Group senior associate, longtime Liberal staffer and Playbook trivia regular GEORGE YOUNG. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Movers and shakers: NATAN OBED told the Globe he'll be seeking reelection as president at the Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami's annual general meeting in September. Alberta MP HEATHER MCPHERSON says she is 'considering' entering the NDP leadership race. 'I've certainly had lots of folks ask me to.' ANDREW WING is now the executive assistant to Northern and Arctic Affairs Minister REBECCA CHARTRAND. Spotted: Retired teacher YOLAINE MUNTER, mother to Canadian Medical Association CEO ALEX MUNTER, scoring a shoutout from GABRIELA DABROWSKI as the Ottawa-born tennis star received a key to the city. 'There's no greater thrill for my mom Yolaine than to celebrate the success of former students,' Munter posted on social media. A visiting teenager, telling Playbook on Friday that he'd dreamed for years of visiting the House of Commons — and, when he finally took a tour, was overwhelmed enough that he nearly fainted on entering the chamber. Noted: AILISH CAMPBELL has wrapped up her time as Canada's EU ambassador. Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW has called a by-election in Spruce Woods for Aug. 26. Elections Canada deregistered the Edmonton Riverbend Green Party Association, effective July 31. Via DARREN MAJOR of CBC News: As of Sunday evening, 209 candidates had registered to run in the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election. BRUCE ANDERSON has returned to 'Good Talk' after stepping away from the pod during the federal election campaign. The Canadian Coast Guard isn't monitoring that Chinese research vessel, but the U.S. Coast Guard did. PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter. In other news for Pro readers: — Commerce triples anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber. — Tesla barred from offering autonomous rides in California. — USDA chief says potentially half of its DC staff may not relocate for reorganization. — EU plan to offshore climate action not grounded in analysis, commission admits. — Whale entanglements decline but still threaten survival. TRIVIA Friday's answer: In 2013, HULK HOGAN arm-wrestled then-Mayor ROB FORD to help promote the Fan Expo convention in Toronto. The other 1980s wrestler who challenged Ford to an arm wrestling match — but never got one — was the IRON SHEIK. (Thanks to DARREN MAJOR for the submission.) Props to PATRICK DION, DAVID GRANOVSKY, RAY DEL BIANCO, JEFFREY VALOIS, BOB GORDON, DARRYL DAMUDE, JOHN PEPPER, DAVE PENNER, AIDEN MUSCOVITCH, ELIZABETH BURN, CAMERON PENNER, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, AXEL RIOUX and ADAM SMITH. Today's question: In celebration of the birthday of CAMILLA, the royal family shared a portrait of the queen consort. What Canadian novel was she deep into reading in the photo? Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
Politico
5 days ago
- Business
- Politico
Deadline vs. deal
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Happy Friday! In today's edition: → Canada's quiet push to shape Trump's next trade deal. → The U.S. billionaire fighting to save 400 B.C. ostriches. → Pentagon ghosts the Halifax International Security Forum. MORNING MONEY: CAPITAL RISK — POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are adapting. Want to know how health care regulation, tariffs or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here. Trade war HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM — Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC says he'll be back in Washington next week as 'complex negotiations' toward a new trade and security deal inch toward that Aug. 1 deadline. LeBlanc had a 'productive, cordial meeting' with U.S. Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK in D.C. on Wednesday night. — Like the PM: The minister is emphasizing that Canada plans to 'take the time necessary to get the best deal.' — Rinse and repeat: Canada's Ambassador to the U.S., KIRSTEN HILLMAN, told reporters Thursday that negotiations will continue 'until the deal is the right deal.' — Deadline pressure: DONALD TRUMP has set an Aug. 1 deadline for reaching agreements or setting steep new tariffs on more than 100 countries. The president said all the reciprocal tariffs coming Aug. 1 will range from 15 percent to 50 percent, Bloomberg reports. — On Capitol Hill: Trade reporter DANIEL DESROCHERS reports Republican lawmakers are sounding upbeat after back-to-back meetings with U.S. Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER, praising the agreements the administration has notched and projecting optimism that there's more to come. — Not everyone's cheering: Desrochers and CHRIS MARQUETTE report that Trump's 'massive' deal with Japan is giving U.S. automakers heartburn. — Over in Europe: The European Union is eyeing a Japan-style deal that sets a 15 percent U.S. baseline tariff — but is ready to retaliate if no agreement can be reached by the Aug. 1 deadline, POLITICO's KOEN VERHELST, ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN and NETTE NÖSTLINGER report. CONVERSATION STARTER CHECK-IN WITH TRUMP 1.0 — WILBUR ROSS, who served as U.S. Commerce secretary from 2017 to 2021 and was a key figure in the Trump administration's first-term trade agenda, told POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS that his former boss is now acting with even greater brashness to impose an agenda that hammers American adversaries. This exchange stood out from where we sit. Here's Ross in his own words: What do you think is Trump's biggest achievement overall in the trade arena since taking office? 'The biggest achievement is not having a trade war. 'Think about it — Trump has changed the rules of the game. Let's say SCOTT [BESSENT] is right that [the U.S. is drawing in] $300 billion a year. What president has ever extracted [that value] from foreign countries? 'And it's not just directly through trade. 'Look at the deal he made with the NATO countries on Ukraine. Here, we get credit for selling them some of the most advanced weapons in the world — and yet it's not costing us anything. 'The other fascinating thing is that countries are now thrilled to end up paying us a 15 percent tariff. Think about it — when Trump made his first announcement, if he had said, 'We're going to insist on 15 percent from everybody,' the world would have been in an uproar. Now people say, 'Oh, only 15 percent? Thank you very much, Mr. President.'' Pro subscribers can read the interview here. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM Carney has no public events on his schedule. TALK OF THE TOWN BIRDS OF A FEATHER — U.S. billionaire and Republican megadonor JOHN CATSIMATIDIS is personally appealing to Prime Minister MARK CARNEY to spare a flock of about 400 British Columbia ostriches from government-ordered slaughter following exposure to avian flu. Catsimatidis, a longtime friend of President DONALD TRUMP, wrote to the PM, asking him to save the ostriches — or else ship them to the United States. He's also reached out to Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER. 'I spoke to Donald Trump about it,' Catsimatidis said. 'He knows about it.' — State of play: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has offered to test the ostriches after they survived a bird flu outbreak on a British Columbia farm. And MEHMET OZ, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has said he'll house the ostriches on his Florida ranch. The challenge to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency cull order is now before the Federal Court of Appeal in Ottawa. A decision is expected this month. 'Look, we're not here to fight. We think they're iconic animals. We think that there's a benefit to saving their lives,' Catsimatidis told Playbook. 'In America, we all have a heart, and the president even pardons turkey on Thanksgiving Day in the United States. So I just want the prime minister to have a heart and do the right thing,' he added. — Crickets: The Prime Minister's Office has declined a chance to weigh in. In Muskoka, Ontario, earlier this week, the PM said he wasn't going to comment. — No signs of budging: Behind the scenes, Liberal officials cite long-standing policies that call for a cull of birds exposed to avian flu, a health and safety concern in Canada. — Phone a friend: Catsimatidis, a known animal lover, continues to sound the alarm over the issue to top U.S. figures including Dr. Oz and Health and Human Services Secretary ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. — Flock together: Both Smith and Ford said this week in Huntsville that they believe the birds should be saved. 'If we can find a better way than doing mass culls in any situation like this, I think it's probably worth it to try to find a better way to do it,' Smith said. Ford said he's spoken to Catsimatidis many times about the ostriches. 'I'm an animal lover and I wanna do everything I can to help them,' the premier said this week. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: Anger levels in the West Wing. Down: Expectations for Aug. 1. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . For your radar HALIFAX HIT — The Pentagon has suspended participation in all think tank and research events, POLITICO's JACK DETSCH reported Thursday, citing an email sent to staff. The Pentagon's public affairs office is also reviewing attendance policy at major security conferences — and it explicitly banned attendance at the Halifax International Security Forum, the annual confab in Nova Scotia that gathers senior military brass, Western politicians, academics and journalists. It's unclear why that forum was singled out, Detsch reported. Canada's defense minister typically plays a major role in Halifax, taking bilateral meetings with counterparts and leading onstage discussions. DAVID MCGUINTY's office declined comment Thursday. — Canadian response: The Ottawa-based Canadian Global Affairs Institute convenes conferences on defense and security — with Americans on the agenda. CGAI president DAVID PERRY called a reduced U.S. footprint 'a shame' in such an uncertain geopolitical moment. 'The U.S. remains the lead Western security and defense ally, and particularly as America goes through a significant evolution of its global defense posture, it's more important than ever for the rest of the Western alliance to understand what the Americans are thinking,' Perry told POLITICO. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — OLLIE WILLIAMS of Cabin Radio has a report on Carney's visit to Inuvik. CBC News has more on Carney's meeting with NATAN OBED, president of Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, and other Inuit leaders. — The PM is calling for Israel to relinquish control of aid delivery to Gaza. The Globe's STEVE CHASE has the story. — FAKIHA BAIG of The Canadian Press weighs in on the upcoming federal by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot. — POLITICO's CAITLIN OPRYSKO reports that the first six months of Trump's term have produced a cash cow of historic magnitude for the lobbying industry in Washington. — CALDER MCHUGH writes on Trump's 'South Park' problem. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to journo PAUL PARK, senior producer of CBC's 'The House' JENNIFER CHEVALIER, former P.E.I. premier and retired Sen. CATHERINE CALLBECK, former Montreal Mayor DENIS CODERRE, B.C. Cabmin BOWINN MA (40!) and MADISON KUCHAR of McMillan Vantage. Saturday: Hill journo PAUL WELLS, Bloomberg's RANDY THANTHONG-KNIGHT, the Canada West Foundation's GARY MAR, Bluesky's JANICE NICHOLSON, Navigator's COLIN MACDONALD and Maple Leaf Strategies' DIMITRI PANTAZOPOULOS. Sunday: Former Cabmins PETER KENT and BEV ODA, retired Sens. CAROLYN STEWART OLSEN and CLAUDETTE TARDIF, and former MPs COLIN FRASER and SHAWN MURPHY. Also celebrating: JULIE CHAISSON, executive director of the Nova Scotia PC caucus office. Movers and shakers: VIRGINIA MEARNS is Canada's new Arctic ambassador. Mearns was formerly senior director of Inuit relations at the Qikiqtani Inuit Association. Send Playbookers tips to canadaplaybook@ LOBBY WATCH — Troilus Gold Corporation logged recent meetings with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, Energy Minister TIM HODGSON, Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN, Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Quebec Lieutenant STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC. — Mattamy Homes posted a June 27 meeting with Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON and senior staff from his office; Deputy Minister PAUL HALUCHA; and KYLE FOX, deputy policy director to Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne. — McKesson Canada, a network of pharmacies that includes Guardian, I.D.A. and The Medicine Shoppe brands, posted a July 17 meeting with ANIE PERRAULT, acting chair of the Patented Medicine Prices Review Board. Earlier this month, The Globe and Mail reported on the federal regulator's new guidelines for monitoring drug prices. — Calian Group logged a July 23 meeting with Lt.-Gen. MICHAEL WRIGHT, commander of the Canadian Army. Top priority: 'Canada's plans to increase defence spending, and supporting defence / national security capability development.' PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter. From Pro trade reporter DOUG PALMER: As Trump raises tariffs, companies find ways to cheat — and risk getting caught. In other Pro headlines: — UN court declares countries must tackle climate change. — White House gives Chevron green light to resume oil production in Venezuela. — What clean energy bosses say about Trump's attacks on renewables. — Trump's AI plan meets a stressed American electric grid. — With US out of picture, EU tries to fill the climate void with China. — Trump's minerals adviser moves to inner White House circle. TRIVIA Thursday's answer: On July 24, 1984, then-federal party leaders JOHN TURNER, BRIAN MULRONEY and ED BROADBENT met in the first televised election debate held solely in French. Props to JOHN MERRIMAN, JOHN PEPPER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ELIZABETH BURN, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ANDREW SZENDE. Friday's question (via reader DARREN MAJOR): In 2013, HULK HOGAN arm-wrestled then-Mayor ROB FORD to help promote the Fan Expo convention in Toronto. What other 1980s wrestler challenged Ford to an arm wrestling match — but never got one? Think you know your 1980s wrestlers? Hit us back: canadaplaybook@
Politico
6 days ago
- Business
- Politico
Hoekstra calls out the quiet
Presented by Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → PETE HOEKSTRA: 'No advocates' for U.S.-Canada ties — and that's a problem. → DANIELLE SMITH talks separatism, pipelines — and why Alberta's no 51st state. → No, the Coast Guard wasn't shadowing a Chinese research vessel. MORNING MONEY: CAPITAL RISK — POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are adapting. Want to know how health care regulation, tariffs or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here. Trade war BOOSTERS WANTED — DONALD TRUMP's man in Ottawa says the Canada-U.S. relationship needs more vocal champions. And he says that includes business leaders — amid high-stakes talks on a new trade and security deal that could define a Trump 2.0 cross-border reset. Amb. PETE HOEKSTRA made the appeal Monday at the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region summit in Bellevue, Washington. 'Where I've been for the last 90 days, there's no advocates for the Canadian-American relationship,' said Hoekstra, who insisted he's optimistic despite the swirl of tension and anger north of the border. — Eight days to deadline — or maybe not: While both Prime Minister MARK CARNEY and Trump administration officials play down the odds of a deal by Aug. 1, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Carney chief of staff MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD spent Wednesday in Washington, D.C. — and are still in town today. — No advocates in sight: In the other Washington, Hoekstra observed that Canada's business leaders have been 'relatively quiet' when it comes to defending or advancing the bilateral relationship. It was a modest shift from his sharper May critique, when he told the Mackinac Policy Conference the business community had been 'largely silent.' — If this, then that: 'So, when people now come to me and say, 'Well, you know, your favorability has gone down, and China's has gone up ... what's the surprise here?' Hoekstra asked. 'There's nobody been advocating for the strength of the relationship.' — View from the C-suites: Playbook canvassed business groups for reaction to the ambassador's remarks. → Canadian Chamber of Commerce: 'At the recent B7 summit, where we welcomed the U.S. ambassador, business leaders agreed that it's time for both countries to work toward a renewed, reliable relationship,' said president and CEO CANDACE LAING. 'Canada's business community will continue to be a vocal champion for a thriving, integrated North American economy that remains the envy of the world.' The chamber, which invited Hoekstra to the B7 Summit in Ottawa ahead of the G7 leaders' summit, has led three trade missions to D.C. — and is planning a fourth in October. → Business Council of Canada: 'Having spoken to the ambassador many times, I know he would like to see the temperature turned down on both sides and frankly, we agree,' said president and CEO GOLDY HYDER, who has called for an 'expedited review and extension' of the USMCA. → Canadian American Business Council: 'Across sectors and the border, companies and business groups are engaging deeply, often behind the scenes, to keep this relationship strong and forward-looking,' said CEO BETH BURKE. 'We are in regular conversation with stakeholders and decision makers to ensure that, across industries, the partnership stays resilient and responsive.' — Money where their mouth is: To celebrate July Fourth, Hoekstra hosted Ottawa business leaders and politicos on the lawn of his Rockcliffe Park residence. A placard at the event thanked a long list of event sponsors, including Air Canada, Bell, BMO, Bombardier, Business Council of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. — Flashback: Shortly after arriving in Ottawa, the new ambassador spoke to POLITICO Canada about the fallout from trade tensions. He pushed back on 'Buy Canadian' and the removal of U.S. products from Canadian shelves. — Let buy gones be buy gones: British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY, whose office leaked a recording of Hoekstra's Monday remarks to The Canadian Press, defended boycotts when asked about them on Wednesday at the premiers' meetings in Ontario cottage country. 'Until they quit their threats to our economy, to our hardworking families … we will not drink their alcohol or visit their country,' he said. — Stand-up routine: Hoekstra told his Cascadian crowd that he knows Canadians are hurt and insulted by Trump's annexation talk, but he joked: 'It's not a whole lot of people or countries that we've asked to become the 51st state that I can remember.' Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM MARK CARNEY is in Inuvik, Northwest Territories, to co-chair a meeting of the Inuit-Crown Partnership Committee with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED. The PM will deliver opening remarks at 8:20 a.m. (10:20 EDT) before the door closes to cameras. CONVERSATION STARTER THE VIEW FROM THE WEST — Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH says Canadians should take her province's scrappy separatist movement seriously. But don't mistake those sovereigntists for wannabe Americans. As they try to gain a foothold in her province amid frustration with Canada's federal government, the premier dismisses any notion that her people want to become the 51st American state. 'Alberta hasn't been treated very well by Washington, either,' she says. As Smith joined her provincial counterparts for their annual summer confab in Ontario's cottage country, she sat down for a conversation with Playbook. The premier talked about her impression of Carney ('an affable, amiable guy' who understands Alberta), her longstanding demands of his government, the state of the separatist movement and the odds a new pipeline will pump Alberta oil to the world. Read MICKEY DJURIC's Q&A here. — In related reading: TREVOR TOMBE writes at The Hub today: A separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta. For your radar NO SHADOW HERE — It sure appeared as though a Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker was recently shadowing the Chinese research vessel Xue Long 2 near the Bering Strait. Ottawa-based researcher STEFFAN WATKINS, who tracks military aircraft and vessels, watched as CCGS Sir Wilfrid Laurier's path through the North Pacific seemed to parallel Xue Long 2 — a ship the Canadian Armed Forces did confirm was being monitored by a maritime patrol aircraft based in Anchorage, Alaska. — The official word: In a brief statement on Monday, Fisheries and Oceans Canada said the ship's route was coincidental: 'The Canadian Coast Guard was not shadowing the Xue Long 2.' — All according to plan: The Sir Wilfrid Laurier was on a previously scheduled mission, sailing from Japan to Alaska. According to a press release, the ship was deployed to: 'Conduct high seas boardings and inspection operations under international law to ensure compliance with regulations and to detect [illegal, unreported and unregulated] fishing.' — Next up: The 25th annual U.S.-Canadian research cruise. — Seriously, nothing to see here: A Fisheries and Oceans spokesperson said in a second statement that 'all sailing routes used by Canadian Coast Guard vessels are planned in advance.' The Sir Wilfrid Laurier's route to Alaska 'was the most direct, fuel efficient way' — though weather and currents delayed its arrival. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — POLITICO's ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN reports: Brussels has a last-resort 'trade bazooka.' — NIALL MCGEE reports in the Globe that Algoma Steel is seeking up to C$600-million from Ottawa in emergency trade war relief. — From POLITICO's DANIEL DESROCHERS and CHRIS MARQUETTE: Trump's 'massive' deal with Japan is giving US automakers heartburn. — 'We need to pull away from America, as far as we can,' STEPHEN MARCHE tells HARRISON MOONEY in a Q&A with The Tyee. 'This means reorienting our trade. It means all the stuff that Carney talked about.' — From DONALD J. SAVOIE in the Globe: Shaving department budgets won't be enough to rein in federal spending. — DEBORAH LYONS spoke to The Canadian Jewish News in her first interview since leaving her post as Canada's special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combating antisemitism: 'I've been really quite amazed and often become quite despondent and despairing about the fact that it was hard to get people to speak up, to speak with clarity, to speak with conviction about what we were seeing happening here on Canadian soil.' — As the Epstein drama continues to drive the news cycle in Washington, the mood inside the White House is quickly souring, POLITICO's DASHA BURNS reports. — MICHAEL KOVRIG wrote a piece for The Walrus. PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here's our latest policy newsletter. In news for Pro subscribers: — Trump AI Action Plan slashes regulation, speeds data center construction. — World's top court says climate inaction can breach international law. — Trump moves trigger nearly $1B writedown of Equinor's US offshore wind projects. — UK moves to force rules on Apple and Google app stores. — Steel plant in Vance's hometown trades clean future for more coal. LOBBY WATCH — SHIMON FOGEL registered to lobby for Inkas Group. One of the company's priorities: 'Securing Export Certificates for Canadian-manufactured armoured vehicles for international sales.' — ISABEL METCALFE logged several recent meetings on behalf of the First Nations Bank of Canada and FNB Trust, including with Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Crestview's DAN MOULTON and Cardus CEO MICHAEL VAN PELT. Former MPs GERARD KENNEDY, TERENCE YOUNG and BRENT RATHGEBER also celebrate today, along with former Ontario minister SEAN CONWAY and Emdash CEO CAITLIN KEALEY. Movers and shakers: KAREN RESTOULE joined Oyster Group as senior adviser … GREGORY FRAME is now senior comms adviser and press secretary to Energy Minister TIM HODGSON … MATHIEU BÉLANGER, a former staffer to two Liberal infrastructure ministers, is leaving the Federation of Canadian Municipalities for a new gig as vice president at engineering firm CIMA+. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Wednesday's answer: In 'Value(s)', MARK CARNEY credits Amazon with advising him how to make decisions. Props to RÉMI AUTHIER, MALCOLM MCKAY, BARRIE FRIEL, CULLY ROBINSON, ELIO PETERSON, ADAM C. SMITH, ELIZABETH ARSENAULT, MARC LEBLANC, JENNA LEAVY, CATHERINE DONG, ELIZABETH BURN, GANGA WIGNARAJAH and PAULA DRISCOLL. Today's question: On this date in history, the first televised debate held solely in French took place during a Canadian general election campaign. Who debated? Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
