Deadline vs. deal

Politico

25-07-2025

Presented by
Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada
Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Happy Friday!
In today's edition:
→ Canada's quiet push to shape Trump's next trade deal.
→ The U.S. billionaire fighting to save 400 B.C. ostriches.
→ Pentagon ghosts the Halifax International Security Forum.
MORNING MONEY: CAPITAL RISK — POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are adapting.
Want to know how health care regulation, tariffs or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here.
Trade war
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM — Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC says he'll be back in Washington next week as 'complex negotiations' toward a new trade and security deal inch toward that Aug. 1 deadline.
LeBlanc had a 'productive, cordial meeting' with U.S. Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK in D.C. on Wednesday night.
— Like the PM: The minister is emphasizing that Canada plans to 'take the time necessary to get the best deal.'
— Rinse and repeat: Canada's Ambassador to the U.S., KIRSTEN HILLMAN, told reporters Thursday that negotiations will continue 'until the deal is the right deal.'
— Deadline pressure: DONALD TRUMP has set an Aug. 1 deadline for reaching agreements or setting steep new tariffs on more than 100 countries. The president said all the reciprocal tariffs coming Aug. 1 will range from 15 percent to 50 percent, Bloomberg reports.
— On Capitol Hill: Trade reporter DANIEL DESROCHERS reports Republican lawmakers are sounding upbeat after back-to-back meetings with U.S. Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER, praising the agreements the administration has notched and projecting optimism that there's more to come.
— Not everyone's cheering: Desrochers and CHRIS MARQUETTE report that Trump's 'massive' deal with Japan is giving U.S. automakers heartburn.
— Over in Europe: The European Union is eyeing a Japan-style deal that sets a 15 percent U.S. baseline tariff — but is ready to retaliate if no agreement can be reached by the Aug. 1 deadline, POLITICO's KOEN VERHELST, ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN and NETTE NÖSTLINGER report.
CONVERSATION STARTER
CHECK-IN WITH TRUMP 1.0 — WILBUR ROSS, who served as U.S. Commerce secretary from 2017 to 2021 and was a key figure in the Trump administration's first-term trade agenda, told POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS that his former boss is now acting with even greater brashness to impose an agenda that hammers American adversaries.
This exchange stood out from where we sit. Here's Ross in his own words:
What do you think is Trump's biggest achievement overall in the trade arena since taking office?
'The biggest achievement is not having a trade war.
'Think about it — Trump has changed the rules of the game. Let's say SCOTT [BESSENT] is right that [the U.S. is drawing in] $300 billion a year. What president has ever extracted [that value] from foreign countries?
'And it's not just directly through trade.
'Look at the deal he made with the NATO countries on Ukraine. Here, we get credit for selling them some of the most advanced weapons in the world — and yet it's not costing us anything.
'The other fascinating thing is that countries are now thrilled to end up paying us a 15 percent tariff. Think about it — when Trump made his first announcement, if he had said, 'We're going to insist on 15 percent from everybody,' the world would have been in an uproar. Now people say, 'Oh, only 15 percent? Thank you very much, Mr. President.''
Pro subscribers can read the interview here.
THE ROOMS THAT MATTER
— PM Carney has no public events on his schedule.
TALK OF THE TOWN
BIRDS OF A FEATHER — U.S. billionaire and Republican megadonor JOHN CATSIMATIDIS is personally appealing to Prime Minister MARK CARNEY to spare a flock of about 400 British Columbia ostriches from government-ordered slaughter following exposure to avian flu.
Catsimatidis, a longtime friend of President DONALD TRUMP, wrote to the PM, asking him to save the ostriches — or else ship them to the United States.
He's also reached out to Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER.
'I spoke to Donald Trump about it,' Catsimatidis said. 'He knows about it.'
— State of play: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has offered to test the ostriches after they survived a bird flu outbreak on a British Columbia farm. And MEHMET OZ, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has said he'll house the ostriches on his Florida ranch.
The challenge to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency cull order is now before the Federal Court of Appeal in Ottawa. A decision is expected this month.
'Look, we're not here to fight. We think they're iconic animals. We think that there's a benefit to saving their lives,' Catsimatidis told Playbook.
'In America, we all have a heart, and the president even pardons turkey on Thanksgiving Day in the United States. So I just want the prime minister to have a heart and do the right thing,' he added.
— Crickets: The Prime Minister's Office has declined a chance to weigh in. In Muskoka, Ontario, earlier this week, the PM said he wasn't going to comment.
— No signs of budging: Behind the scenes, Liberal officials cite long-standing policies that call for a cull of birds exposed to avian flu, a health and safety concern in Canada.
— Phone a friend: Catsimatidis, a known animal lover, continues to sound the alarm over the issue to top U.S. figures including Dr. Oz and Health and Human Services Secretary ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.
— Flock together: Both Smith and Ford said this week in Huntsville that they believe the birds should be saved.
'If we can find a better way than doing mass culls in any situation like this, I think it's probably worth it to try to find a better way to do it,' Smith said.
Ford said he's spoken to Catsimatidis many times about the ostriches. 'I'm an animal lover and I wanna do everything I can to help them,' the premier said this week.
WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN
Up: Anger levels in the West Wing.
Down: Expectations for Aug. 1.
Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android .
For your radar
HALIFAX HIT — The Pentagon has suspended participation in all think tank and research events, POLITICO's JACK DETSCH reported Thursday, citing an email sent to staff.
The Pentagon's public affairs office is also reviewing attendance policy at major security conferences — and it explicitly banned attendance at the Halifax International Security Forum, the annual confab in Nova Scotia that gathers senior military brass, Western politicians, academics and journalists.
It's unclear why that forum was singled out, Detsch reported.
Canada's defense minister typically plays a major role in Halifax, taking bilateral meetings with counterparts and leading onstage discussions. DAVID MCGUINTY's office declined comment Thursday.
— Canadian response: The Ottawa-based Canadian Global Affairs Institute convenes conferences on defense and security — with Americans on the agenda. CGAI president DAVID PERRY called a reduced U.S. footprint 'a shame' in such an uncertain geopolitical moment.
'The U.S. remains the lead Western security and defense ally, and particularly as America goes through a significant evolution of its global defense posture, it's more important than ever for the rest of the Western alliance to understand what the Americans are thinking,' Perry told POLITICO.
MORNING MUST-CLICKS
— OLLIE WILLIAMS of Cabin Radio has a report on Carney's visit to Inuvik. CBC News has more on Carney's meeting with NATAN OBED, president of Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, and other Inuit leaders.
— The PM is calling for Israel to relinquish control of aid delivery to Gaza. The Globe's STEVE CHASE has the story.
— FAKIHA BAIG of The Canadian Press weighs in on the upcoming federal by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot.
— POLITICO's CAITLIN OPRYSKO reports that the first six months of Trump's term have produced a cash cow of historic magnitude for the lobbying industry in Washington.
— CALDER MCHUGH writes on Trump's 'South Park' problem.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to journo PAUL PARK, senior producer of CBC's 'The House' JENNIFER CHEVALIER, former P.E.I. premier and retired Sen. CATHERINE CALLBECK, former Montreal Mayor DENIS CODERRE, B.C. Cabmin BOWINN MA (40!) and MADISON KUCHAR of McMillan Vantage.
Saturday: Hill journo PAUL WELLS, Bloomberg's RANDY THANTHONG-KNIGHT, the Canada West Foundation's GARY MAR, Bluesky's JANICE NICHOLSON, Navigator's COLIN MACDONALD and Maple Leaf Strategies' DIMITRI PANTAZOPOULOS.
Sunday: Former Cabmins PETER KENT and BEV ODA, retired Sens. CAROLYN STEWART OLSEN and CLAUDETTE TARDIF, and former MPs COLIN FRASER and SHAWN MURPHY. Also celebrating: JULIE CHAISSON, executive director of the Nova Scotia PC caucus office.
Movers and shakers: VIRGINIA MEARNS is Canada's new Arctic ambassador. Mearns was formerly senior director of Inuit relations at the Qikiqtani Inuit Association.
Send Playbookers tips to [e-mail]
LOBBY WATCH
— Troilus Gold Corporation logged recent meetings with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, Energy Minister TIM HODGSON, Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN, Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Quebec Lieutenant STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC.
— Mattamy Homes posted a June 27 meeting with Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON and senior staff from his office; Deputy Minister PAUL HALUCHA; and KYLE FOX, deputy policy director to Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne.
— McKesson Canada, a network of pharmacies that includes Guardian, I.D.A. and The Medicine Shoppe brands, posted a July 17 meeting with ANIE PERRAULT, acting chair of the Patented Medicine Prices Review Board. Earlier this month, The Globe and Mail reported on the federal regulator's new guidelines for monitoring drug prices.
— Calian Group logged a July 23 meeting with Lt.-Gen. MICHAEL WRIGHT, commander of the Canadian Army. Top priority: 'Canada's plans to increase defence spending, and supporting defence / national security capability development.'
PROZONE
For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter.
From Pro trade reporter DOUG PALMER: As Trump raises tariffs, companies find ways to cheat — and risk getting caught.
In other Pro headlines:
— UN court declares countries must tackle climate change.
— White House gives Chevron green light to resume oil production in Venezuela.
— What clean energy bosses say about Trump's attacks on renewables.
— Trump's AI plan meets a stressed American electric grid.
— With US out of picture, EU tries to fill the climate void with China.
— Trump's minerals adviser moves to inner White House circle.
TRIVIA
Thursday's answer: On July 24, 1984, then-federal party leaders JOHN TURNER, BRIAN MULRONEY and ED BROADBENT met in the first televised election debate held solely in French.
Props to JOHN MERRIMAN, JOHN PEPPER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ELIZABETH BURN, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ANDREW SZENDE.
Friday's question (via reader DARREN MAJOR): In 2013, HULK HOGAN arm-wrestled then-Mayor ROB FORD to help promote the Fan Expo convention in Toronto. What other 1980s wrestler challenged Ford to an arm wrestling match — but never got one?
Think you know your 1980s wrestlers? Hit us back: [e-mail]