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Politico
6 days ago
- Business
- Politico
Deadline vs. deal
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. Happy Friday! In today's edition: → Canada's quiet push to shape Trump's next trade deal. → The U.S. billionaire fighting to save 400 B.C. ostriches. → Pentagon ghosts the Halifax International Security Forum. MORNING MONEY: CAPITAL RISK — POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are adapting. Want to know how health care regulation, tariffs or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here. Trade war HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM — Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC says he'll be back in Washington next week as 'complex negotiations' toward a new trade and security deal inch toward that Aug. 1 deadline. LeBlanc had a 'productive, cordial meeting' with U.S. Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK in D.C. on Wednesday night. — Like the PM: The minister is emphasizing that Canada plans to 'take the time necessary to get the best deal.' — Rinse and repeat: Canada's Ambassador to the U.S., KIRSTEN HILLMAN, told reporters Thursday that negotiations will continue 'until the deal is the right deal.' — Deadline pressure: DONALD TRUMP has set an Aug. 1 deadline for reaching agreements or setting steep new tariffs on more than 100 countries. The president said all the reciprocal tariffs coming Aug. 1 will range from 15 percent to 50 percent, Bloomberg reports. — On Capitol Hill: Trade reporter DANIEL DESROCHERS reports Republican lawmakers are sounding upbeat after back-to-back meetings with U.S. Trade Representative JAMIESON GREER, praising the agreements the administration has notched and projecting optimism that there's more to come. — Not everyone's cheering: Desrochers and CHRIS MARQUETTE report that Trump's 'massive' deal with Japan is giving U.S. automakers heartburn. — Over in Europe: The European Union is eyeing a Japan-style deal that sets a 15 percent U.S. baseline tariff — but is ready to retaliate if no agreement can be reached by the Aug. 1 deadline, POLITICO's KOEN VERHELST, ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN and NETTE NÖSTLINGER report. CONVERSATION STARTER CHECK-IN WITH TRUMP 1.0 — WILBUR ROSS, who served as U.S. Commerce secretary from 2017 to 2021 and was a key figure in the Trump administration's first-term trade agenda, told POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS that his former boss is now acting with even greater brashness to impose an agenda that hammers American adversaries. This exchange stood out from where we sit. Here's Ross in his own words: What do you think is Trump's biggest achievement overall in the trade arena since taking office? 'The biggest achievement is not having a trade war. 'Think about it — Trump has changed the rules of the game. Let's say SCOTT [BESSENT] is right that [the U.S. is drawing in] $300 billion a year. What president has ever extracted [that value] from foreign countries? 'And it's not just directly through trade. 'Look at the deal he made with the NATO countries on Ukraine. Here, we get credit for selling them some of the most advanced weapons in the world — and yet it's not costing us anything. 'The other fascinating thing is that countries are now thrilled to end up paying us a 15 percent tariff. Think about it — when Trump made his first announcement, if he had said, 'We're going to insist on 15 percent from everybody,' the world would have been in an uproar. Now people say, 'Oh, only 15 percent? Thank you very much, Mr. President.'' Pro subscribers can read the interview here. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — PM Carney has no public events on his schedule. TALK OF THE TOWN BIRDS OF A FEATHER — U.S. billionaire and Republican megadonor JOHN CATSIMATIDIS is personally appealing to Prime Minister MARK CARNEY to spare a flock of about 400 British Columbia ostriches from government-ordered slaughter following exposure to avian flu. Catsimatidis, a longtime friend of President DONALD TRUMP, wrote to the PM, asking him to save the ostriches — or else ship them to the United States. He's also reached out to Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER. 'I spoke to Donald Trump about it,' Catsimatidis said. 'He knows about it.' — State of play: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has offered to test the ostriches after they survived a bird flu outbreak on a British Columbia farm. And MEHMET OZ, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has said he'll house the ostriches on his Florida ranch. The challenge to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency cull order is now before the Federal Court of Appeal in Ottawa. A decision is expected this month. 'Look, we're not here to fight. We think they're iconic animals. We think that there's a benefit to saving their lives,' Catsimatidis told Playbook. 'In America, we all have a heart, and the president even pardons turkey on Thanksgiving Day in the United States. So I just want the prime minister to have a heart and do the right thing,' he added. — Crickets: The Prime Minister's Office has declined a chance to weigh in. In Muskoka, Ontario, earlier this week, the PM said he wasn't going to comment. — No signs of budging: Behind the scenes, Liberal officials cite long-standing policies that call for a cull of birds exposed to avian flu, a health and safety concern in Canada. — Phone a friend: Catsimatidis, a known animal lover, continues to sound the alarm over the issue to top U.S. figures including Dr. Oz and Health and Human Services Secretary ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. — Flock together: Both Smith and Ford said this week in Huntsville that they believe the birds should be saved. 'If we can find a better way than doing mass culls in any situation like this, I think it's probably worth it to try to find a better way to do it,' Smith said. Ford said he's spoken to Catsimatidis many times about the ostriches. 'I'm an animal lover and I wanna do everything I can to help them,' the premier said this week. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: Anger levels in the West Wing. Down: Expectations for Aug. 1. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . For your radar HALIFAX HIT — The Pentagon has suspended participation in all think tank and research events, POLITICO's JACK DETSCH reported Thursday, citing an email sent to staff. The Pentagon's public affairs office is also reviewing attendance policy at major security conferences — and it explicitly banned attendance at the Halifax International Security Forum, the annual confab in Nova Scotia that gathers senior military brass, Western politicians, academics and journalists. It's unclear why that forum was singled out, Detsch reported. Canada's defense minister typically plays a major role in Halifax, taking bilateral meetings with counterparts and leading onstage discussions. DAVID MCGUINTY's office declined comment Thursday. — Canadian response: The Ottawa-based Canadian Global Affairs Institute convenes conferences on defense and security — with Americans on the agenda. CGAI president DAVID PERRY called a reduced U.S. footprint 'a shame' in such an uncertain geopolitical moment. 'The U.S. remains the lead Western security and defense ally, and particularly as America goes through a significant evolution of its global defense posture, it's more important than ever for the rest of the Western alliance to understand what the Americans are thinking,' Perry told POLITICO. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — OLLIE WILLIAMS of Cabin Radio has a report on Carney's visit to Inuvik. CBC News has more on Carney's meeting with NATAN OBED, president of Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, and other Inuit leaders. — The PM is calling for Israel to relinquish control of aid delivery to Gaza. The Globe's STEVE CHASE has the story. — FAKIHA BAIG of The Canadian Press weighs in on the upcoming federal by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot. — POLITICO's CAITLIN OPRYSKO reports that the first six months of Trump's term have produced a cash cow of historic magnitude for the lobbying industry in Washington. — CALDER MCHUGH writes on Trump's 'South Park' problem. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to journo PAUL PARK, senior producer of CBC's 'The House' JENNIFER CHEVALIER, former P.E.I. premier and retired Sen. CATHERINE CALLBECK, former Montreal Mayor DENIS CODERRE, B.C. Cabmin BOWINN MA (40!) and MADISON KUCHAR of McMillan Vantage. Saturday: Hill journo PAUL WELLS, Bloomberg's RANDY THANTHONG-KNIGHT, the Canada West Foundation's GARY MAR, Bluesky's JANICE NICHOLSON, Navigator's COLIN MACDONALD and Maple Leaf Strategies' DIMITRI PANTAZOPOULOS. Sunday: Former Cabmins PETER KENT and BEV ODA, retired Sens. CAROLYN STEWART OLSEN and CLAUDETTE TARDIF, and former MPs COLIN FRASER and SHAWN MURPHY. Also celebrating: JULIE CHAISSON, executive director of the Nova Scotia PC caucus office. Movers and shakers: VIRGINIA MEARNS is Canada's new Arctic ambassador. Mearns was formerly senior director of Inuit relations at the Qikiqtani Inuit Association. Send Playbookers tips to canadaplaybook@ LOBBY WATCH — Troilus Gold Corporation logged recent meetings with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, Energy Minister TIM HODGSON, Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN, Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Quebec Lieutenant STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC. — Mattamy Homes posted a June 27 meeting with Housing Minister GREGOR ROBERTSON and senior staff from his office; Deputy Minister PAUL HALUCHA; and KYLE FOX, deputy policy director to Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne. — McKesson Canada, a network of pharmacies that includes Guardian, I.D.A. and The Medicine Shoppe brands, posted a July 17 meeting with ANIE PERRAULT, acting chair of the Patented Medicine Prices Review Board. Earlier this month, The Globe and Mail reported on the federal regulator's new guidelines for monitoring drug prices. — Calian Group logged a July 23 meeting with Lt.-Gen. MICHAEL WRIGHT, commander of the Canadian Army. Top priority: 'Canada's plans to increase defence spending, and supporting defence / national security capability development.' PROZONE For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter. From Pro trade reporter DOUG PALMER: As Trump raises tariffs, companies find ways to cheat — and risk getting caught. In other Pro headlines: — UN court declares countries must tackle climate change. — White House gives Chevron green light to resume oil production in Venezuela. — What clean energy bosses say about Trump's attacks on renewables. — Trump's AI plan meets a stressed American electric grid. — With US out of picture, EU tries to fill the climate void with China. — Trump's minerals adviser moves to inner White House circle. TRIVIA Thursday's answer: On July 24, 1984, then-federal party leaders JOHN TURNER, BRIAN MULRONEY and ED BROADBENT met in the first televised election debate held solely in French. Props to JOHN MERRIMAN, JOHN PEPPER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ELIZABETH BURN, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ANDREW SZENDE. Friday's question (via reader DARREN MAJOR): In 2013, HULK HOGAN arm-wrestled then-Mayor ROB FORD to help promote the Fan Expo convention in Toronto. What other 1980s wrestler challenged Ford to an arm wrestling match — but never got one? Think you know your 1980s wrestlers? Hit us back: canadaplaybook@
Politico
23-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
Not-so-great expectations
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC heads back to D.C. → The future implications of public service cuts. → Canada keeps watch on a Chinese research vessel. Trade war HUNTSVILLE LEVEL SET — Negotiating with DONALD TRUMP is proving harder than it looks, no matter how many Canadian lawmakers have read 'The Art of the Deal.' — Tuesday morning: Premiers met with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, eager for signs of progress. — Tuesday afternoon: The leaders emerged from the update resigned that a deal may not arrive by the end of the month. Trump has said that on Aug. 1, he plans to raise tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent. Whether they will apply to goods that do not comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remains to be seen. 'Of course we would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?' Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT said after the meeting. 'You almost need to ask Donald Trump and I'm not even sure he knows himself what he wants.' — The expectation manager: Carney, who ran for office on his economic bona fides, said he wants the best deal for Canada — and won't settle for an agreement 'at any cost.' 'They're complex negotiations, and we'll use all the time that's necessary,' he added. — Put another way: Toronto Star columnist MARTIN REGG COHN writes from Huntsville: 'When in doubt, manage expectations. Manage the premiers. Manage the media. Manage the country.' — Can't stop, won't stop: A team of Canadian negotiators is headed to Washington today, including Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Carney's chief of staff, MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD. — Hurry up and wait: 'We want a good deal, not a fast deal. And we don't want to make a fast deal at the expense of a good deal. That's the realization we've come to,' New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT said after the briefing with the PM. — Regardless: If Team Canada appeared united, the night before probably helped. — All steak, no sizzle: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD hosted a barbecue at his Muskoka cottage on Monday night, where the group chowed down on steak, chicken and seasonal vegetables, and enjoyed plenty of libations. Premiers quipped that it was nice to mingle without cameras rolling and the media nearby. Ford organized a birthday cake for British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY, who turned 49 on Monday. — Extra room: The prime minister slept at Ford's cottage, in a guest house. The two stayed up until 12:30 a.m., chatting in front of the fireplace and 'solving all the world's problems,' Ford said. 'The prime minister is the most humble person you'd ever want to meet,' he added. — Skipping town: The PM did not stick around for a Tuesday night gala hosted by Ford, who will pass the Council of the Federation chair role to Prince Edward Island Premier ROB LANTZ. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — The PM will visit his birthplace: Fort Smith, Northwest Territories. He's touring the community alongside Premier R.J. SIMPSON. The PM will meet with families to discuss affordability challenges and talk to Indigenous leaders about wildfires. In the evening, he'll travel to Inuvik to meet with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED and Inuvialuit Regional Corporation CEO DUANE NINGAQSIQ SMITH. — It's the final day of the premiers' confab. CP's LIAM CASEY reports internal trade, public safety and health care on the agenda. — The sentencing hearing for 'Freedom Convoy' leaders TAMARA LICH and CHRIS BARBER begins this morning. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . For your radar CUTS BOTH WAYS — As virtually every cross-border conversation these days seems to hinge on Canada-U.S. negotiations, CHRISTOPHER SANDS worries about the bureaucrats who keep the broader relationship ticking. Job cuts are a reality in Washington as Canadian public servants get anxious about the impact of planned spending reductions. Sands, director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies, gamed out all the uncertainty in a Substack post. He let Playbook in on why he wrote it: 'To try to alert people about the danger. … No one has been talking about the future implications.' — Anybody there? Canadians who need answers on shared priorities already compete with other countries for Americans' time, Sands writes. — Prepare for longer lines: 'Shrinking the federal workforce risks triggering a chain reaction of triage across all levels of government, keeping Canada waiting on hold.' — Meeting strategy: Americans are already outnumbered at bilateral meetings by Canadians who sometimes represent multiple departments from two levels of government. Sands wrote that the Americans in the room are 'tempted to 'play the clock' in meetings. Everyone speaks until time runs out and before anyone can assign homework or ask for a decision. That strategy results in more meetings — and more friction.' He tells Playbook: 'I don't think many Canadian officials appreciate the U.S. tactics of stalling by letting the Canadians talk.' — Warning sign: Canadians, too, can delay progress by using meetings to settle internal squabbles. Sands wrote: 'Some future U.S. officials may conclude 'the juice isn't worth the squeeze' — that working with Canada costs more effort than it's worth.' We asked Sands if Canadians understand the risk of time-crunched Americans prioritizing other files. 'Occasionally, you get someone to nervously acknowledge the point, but then there is always a less frightening explanation they will adopt,' he tells us. — The pessimistic scenario: 'The U.S.-Canada relationship could easily devolve into a series of awkward first encounters with new staff, no historical perspective, inadequate institutional support from within government and too little outside the government from universities and think tanks,' Sands wrote. Unless it doesn't: 'There's still time to act. To build capacity. To preserve knowledge. To invest in people and institutions who understand the relationship and can carry it forward.' For your radar KEEPING AN EYE OUT — As we noted for Pros yesterday, and CBC's Murray Brewster reported, a Canadian military aircraft has been monitoring a Chinese research vessel operating in Arctic waters outside Canadian territorial waters. The Canadian Armed Forces confirmed to POLITICO on Monday that a CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft recently dispatched to Anchorage, Alaska, has kept an eye on the polar icebreaker known as Xue Long 2. — Why send a plane? 'Competitors are exploring Arctic waters and the seafloor, probing our infrastructure, and collecting intelligence using dual-purpose research vessels and surveillance platforms,' the DND statement read. — Duration of operations: The Canadian military 'will continue to actively monitor the Xue Long 2 so long as it continues to operate near Canadian territorial waters.' — Eyes on the trackers: STEFFAN WATKINS, an Ottawa-based research consultant who tracks the movements of military aircraft and vessels, published the Chinese ship's whereabouts in a weekly report — and noted the CP-140's flights out of Anchorage. — Two years running: When Xue Long 2 sailed a similar path last year through the Bering Strait and into Arctic waters, the Royal Canadian Navy sent a frigate to shadow the Chinese vessel. A CP-140 conducted similar patrols at the time, Brewster and others reported. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY told The Globe and Mail the government is in active discussions with automakers about EV sales mandates. — In the Financial Post, GABRIEL FRIEDMAN reports: Tariffs are costing automakers billions. — In The New Yorker, ANTONIA HITCHENS profiles Trump's tariff dealmaker-in-chief. — SARA CONNORS of APTN speaks with Indigenous groups and conservationists about the green light for oil and gas drilling within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. — PAUL WELLS challenges PIERRE POILIEVRE's musings on X. — From POLITICO's PAUL DALLISON: The political wisdom of OZZY OSBOURNE. PROZONE The latest Pro Canada PM subscriber newsletter via SUE ALLAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Carney's team heads back to DC. From PHELIM KINE, ELI STOKOLS and DANIEL DESROCHERS: Trump's threat of Russia-related secondary tariffs sparks skepticism. Our latest headlines for POLITICO Pro readers: — OpenAI CEO warns of 'impending fraud crisis.' — Trump has set off a lobbying boom in Washington. — Trump announces trade deal with Japan. — France wants EU to punch back harder at Trump in tariff fight. — Bessent: Next round of trade talks with China happening next week. LOBBY WATCH — NATIONAL's MARTIN DARAICHE logged a July 11 meeting with PMO chief of staff MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD on behalf of Marinvest Energy Canada, the subsidiary of a Norwegian company that wants to build an LNG export facility in Baie-Comeau, Quebec. — McMillan Vantage's JEFF RUTLEDGE posted a July 17 meeting with PMO senior policy adviser SHAWN GROVER on behalf of Glencore Canada. The company owns Elk Valley Resources, a steel-making coal mine operator in British Columbia. — Navigator's MATT TRIEMSTRA is now repping the Treaty Land Entitlement Committee of Manitoba, a group of First Nations negotiating a settlement with Ottawa. — La-Z-Boy of Ottawa, Kingston and Gatineau wants to secure tariff relief for furniture imports — and is now repped on the Hill by consultant ALAIN PILON. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Le Journal de Montréal columnist RICHARD MARTINEAU and former Progressive Conservative MP DAVID DAUBNEY. Movers and shakers: Former NDP MP BRIAN MASSE is now an employment services specialist at the Multicultural Council of Windsor-Essex — the agency where he was youth coordinator before winning his first election in 2002. LAURA LUMSDEN, former director of Canada-U.S. coordination at Global Affairs Canada, is now counselor of political affairs at Canada's UN mission. Media mentions: Global News Ottawa bureau chief MERCEDES STEPHENSON announced some personal news: 'I'm expecting my first baby in a few weeks and will be taking some time off for parental leave to focus on this very special assignment.' DAVID AKIN will sub in as acting bureau chief. Noted: The PM told the premiers that Ottawa's 'Federal Major Projects Office' and the Indigenous Advisory Council will open by Labor Day. Republicans want to rename Kennedy Center's opera house after MELANIA TRUMP. TRIVIA Tuesday's answer: Former Prime Minister MACKENZIE KING died July 22, 1950. Props to GANGA WIGNARAJAH, J.D.M. STEWART, BOB GORDON, DARRYL DAMUDE, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DARREN MCEWAN, JENN KEAY, GREG FERGUS, GREG MACEACHERN, ELIZABETH BURN, DAN MCCARTHY, JEFFREY VALOIS, SHAUGHN MCCARTHUR, DARREN MAJOR, RAY DEL BIANCO, JOHN PEPPER, MARCEL MARCOTTE and KATIE FEENAN. Wednesday's question: In 'Value(s)', MARK CARNEY credits which global tech giant with advising him how to make decisions? Answers to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
