Not-so-great expectations

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4 days ago

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In today's edition:
→ Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC heads back to D.C.
→ The future implications of public service cuts.
→ Canada keeps watch on a Chinese research vessel.
Trade war
HUNTSVILLE LEVEL SET — Negotiating with DONALD TRUMP is proving harder than it looks, no matter how many Canadian lawmakers have read 'The Art of the Deal.'
— Tuesday morning: Premiers met with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, eager for signs of progress.
— Tuesday afternoon: The leaders emerged from the update resigned that a deal may not arrive by the end of the month.
Trump has said that on Aug. 1, he plans to raise tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent. Whether they will apply to goods that do not comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remains to be seen.
'Of course we would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?' Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT said after the meeting.
'You almost need to ask Donald Trump and I'm not even sure he knows himself what he wants.'
— The expectation manager: Carney, who ran for office on his economic bona fides, said he wants the best deal for Canada — and won't settle for an agreement 'at any cost.'
'They're complex negotiations, and we'll use all the time that's necessary,' he added.
— Put another way: Toronto Star columnist MARTIN REGG COHN writes from Huntsville: 'When in doubt, manage expectations. Manage the premiers. Manage the media. Manage the country.'
— Can't stop, won't stop: A team of Canadian negotiators is headed to Washington today, including Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Carney's chief of staff, MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD.
— Hurry up and wait: 'We want a good deal, not a fast deal. And we don't want to make a fast deal at the expense of a good deal. That's the realization we've come to,' New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT said after the briefing with the PM.
— Regardless: If Team Canada appeared united, the night before probably helped.
— All steak, no sizzle: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD hosted a barbecue at his Muskoka cottage on Monday night, where the group chowed down on steak, chicken and seasonal vegetables, and enjoyed plenty of libations.
Premiers quipped that it was nice to mingle without cameras rolling and the media nearby. Ford organized a birthday cake for British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY, who turned 49 on Monday.
— Extra room: The prime minister slept at Ford's cottage, in a guest house. The two stayed up until 12:30 a.m., chatting in front of the fireplace and 'solving all the world's problems,' Ford said.
'The prime minister is the most humble person you'd ever want to meet,' he added.
— Skipping town: The PM did not stick around for a Tuesday night gala hosted by Ford, who will pass the Council of the Federation chair role to Prince Edward Island Premier ROB LANTZ.
THE ROOMS THAT MATTER
— The PM will visit his birthplace: Fort Smith, Northwest Territories. He's touring the community alongside Premier R.J. SIMPSON. The PM will meet with families to discuss affordability challenges and talk to Indigenous leaders about wildfires.
In the evening, he'll travel to Inuvik to meet with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED and Inuvialuit Regional Corporation CEO DUANE NINGAQSIQ SMITH.
— It's the final day of the premiers' confab. CP's LIAM CASEY reports internal trade, public safety and health care on the agenda.
— The sentencing hearing for 'Freedom Convoy' leaders TAMARA LICH and CHRIS BARBER begins this morning.
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For your radar
CUTS BOTH WAYS — As virtually every cross-border conversation these days seems to hinge on Canada-U.S. negotiations, CHRISTOPHER SANDS worries about the bureaucrats who keep the broader relationship ticking.
Job cuts are a reality in Washington as Canadian public servants get anxious about the impact of planned spending reductions.
Sands, director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies, gamed out all the uncertainty in a Substack post. He let Playbook in on why he wrote it: 'To try to alert people about the danger. … No one has been talking about the future implications.'
— Anybody there? Canadians who need answers on shared priorities already compete with other countries for Americans' time, Sands writes.
— Prepare for longer lines: 'Shrinking the federal workforce risks triggering a chain reaction of triage across all levels of government, keeping Canada waiting on hold.'
— Meeting strategy: Americans are already outnumbered at bilateral meetings by Canadians who sometimes represent multiple departments from two levels of government.
Sands wrote that the Americans in the room are 'tempted to 'play the clock' in meetings. Everyone speaks until time runs out and before anyone can assign homework or ask for a decision. That strategy results in more meetings — and more friction.'
He tells Playbook: 'I don't think many Canadian officials appreciate the U.S. tactics of stalling by letting the Canadians talk.'
— Warning sign: Canadians, too, can delay progress by using meetings to settle internal squabbles.
Sands wrote: 'Some future U.S. officials may conclude 'the juice isn't worth the squeeze' — that working with Canada costs more effort than it's worth.'
We asked Sands if Canadians understand the risk of time-crunched Americans prioritizing other files. 'Occasionally, you get someone to nervously acknowledge the point, but then there is always a less frightening explanation they will adopt,' he tells us.
— The pessimistic scenario: 'The U.S.-Canada relationship could easily devolve into a series of awkward first encounters with new staff, no historical perspective, inadequate institutional support from within government and too little outside the government from universities and think tanks,' Sands wrote.
Unless it doesn't: 'There's still time to act. To build capacity. To preserve knowledge. To invest in people and institutions who understand the relationship and can carry it forward.'
For your radar
KEEPING AN EYE OUT — As we noted for Pros yesterday, and CBC's Murray Brewster reported, a Canadian military aircraft has been monitoring a Chinese research vessel operating in Arctic waters outside Canadian territorial waters.
The Canadian Armed Forces confirmed to POLITICO on Monday that a CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft recently dispatched to Anchorage, Alaska, has kept an eye on the polar icebreaker known as Xue Long 2.
— Why send a plane? 'Competitors are exploring Arctic waters and the seafloor, probing our infrastructure, and collecting intelligence using dual-purpose research vessels and surveillance platforms,' the DND statement read.
— Duration of operations: The Canadian military 'will continue to actively monitor the Xue Long 2 so long as it continues to operate near Canadian territorial waters.'
— Eyes on the trackers: STEFFAN WATKINS, an Ottawa-based research consultant who tracks the movements of military aircraft and vessels, published the Chinese ship's whereabouts in a weekly report — and noted the CP-140's flights out of Anchorage.
— Two years running: When Xue Long 2 sailed a similar path last year through the Bering Strait and into Arctic waters, the Royal Canadian Navy sent a frigate to shadow the Chinese vessel. A CP-140 conducted similar patrols at the time, Brewster and others reported.
MORNING MUST-CLICKS
— Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY told The Globe and Mail the government is in active discussions with automakers about EV sales mandates.
— In the Financial Post, GABRIEL FRIEDMAN reports: Tariffs are costing automakers billions.
— In The New Yorker, ANTONIA HITCHENS profiles Trump's tariff dealmaker-in-chief.
— SARA CONNORS of APTN speaks with Indigenous groups and conservationists about the green light for oil and gas drilling within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
— PAUL WELLS challenges PIERRE POILIEVRE's musings on X.
— From POLITICO's PAUL DALLISON: The political wisdom of OZZY OSBOURNE.
PROZONE
The latest Pro Canada PM subscriber newsletter via SUE ALLAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Carney's team heads back to DC.
From PHELIM KINE, ELI STOKOLS and DANIEL DESROCHERS: Trump's threat of Russia-related secondary tariffs sparks skepticism.
Our latest headlines for POLITICO Pro readers:
— OpenAI CEO warns of 'impending fraud crisis.'
— Trump has set off a lobbying boom in Washington.
— Trump announces trade deal with Japan.
— France wants EU to punch back harder at Trump in tariff fight.
— Bessent: Next round of trade talks with China happening next week.
LOBBY WATCH
— NATIONAL's MARTIN DARAICHE logged a July 11 meeting with PMO chief of staff MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD on behalf of Marinvest Energy Canada, the subsidiary of a Norwegian company that wants to build an LNG export facility in Baie-Comeau, Quebec.
— McMillan Vantage's JEFF RUTLEDGE posted a July 17 meeting with PMO senior policy adviser SHAWN GROVER on behalf of Glencore Canada. The company owns Elk Valley Resources, a steel-making coal mine operator in British Columbia.
— Navigator's MATT TRIEMSTRA is now repping the Treaty Land Entitlement Committee of Manitoba, a group of First Nations negotiating a settlement with Ottawa.
— La-Z-Boy of Ottawa, Kingston and Gatineau wants to secure tariff relief for furniture imports — and is now repped on the Hill by consultant ALAIN PILON.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to Le Journal de Montréal columnist RICHARD MARTINEAU and former Progressive Conservative MP DAVID DAUBNEY.
Movers and shakers: Former NDP MP BRIAN MASSE is now an employment services specialist at the Multicultural Council of Windsor-Essex — the agency where he was youth coordinator before winning his first election in 2002.
LAURA LUMSDEN, former director of Canada-U.S. coordination at Global Affairs Canada, is now counselor of political affairs at Canada's UN mission.
Media mentions: Global News Ottawa bureau chief MERCEDES STEPHENSON announced some personal news: 'I'm expecting my first baby in a few weeks and will be taking some time off for parental leave to focus on this very special assignment.' DAVID AKIN will sub in as acting bureau chief.
Noted: The PM told the premiers that Ottawa's 'Federal Major Projects Office' and the Indigenous Advisory Council will open by Labor Day.
Republicans want to rename Kennedy Center's opera house after MELANIA TRUMP.
TRIVIA
Tuesday's answer: Former Prime Minister MACKENZIE KING died July 22, 1950.
Props to GANGA WIGNARAJAH, J.D.M. STEWART, BOB GORDON, DARRYL DAMUDE, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DARREN MCEWAN, JENN KEAY, GREG FERGUS, GREG MACEACHERN, ELIZABETH BURN, DAN MCCARTHY, JEFFREY VALOIS, SHAUGHN MCCARTHUR, DARREN MAJOR, RAY DEL BIANCO, JOHN PEPPER, MARCEL MARCOTTE and KATIE FEENAN.
Wednesday's question: In 'Value(s)', MARK CARNEY credits which global tech giant with advising him how to make decisions?
Answers to [e-mail]
Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.
Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.