Postelection momentum: Will new leadership lift Kospi past 2,800?

Korea Herald

2 days ago

With policy clarity in sight, investors turn bullish — Kospi seen testing 3,000
After months of political limbo, South Korean capital markets are brimming with anticipation as Tuesday's presidential election ushers in new leadership and an end to a prolonged policy vacuum.
While candidates differ in the specifics of their market-boosting pledges, they share common ground on one urgent issue: the need to resolve the persistent 'Korea discount' that has long weighed on valuations.
Market watchers expect this shared resolve — alongside broader investor optimism — to fuel a postelection rebound, regardless of who takes office.
Investor sentiment points to a gradual Kospi recovery, with the index likely to test 2,800 in the second half — a level not seen since July 2024.
'Expectations for economic stimulus are likely to strengthen after the election, and a shift from policy vacuum to active support could drive a stronger won and foreign buying,' said Daishin Securities analyst Lee Kyoung-min.
However, Lee flagged a potential short-term pullback as the market digests preelection gains. The Kospi broke above 2,700 last week for the first time in nine months on hopes for political clarity.
While forecasting a near-term trading band of 2,550 to 2,800, Lee reaffirmed his year-end target of 3,000 points, expressing confidence that improved fundamentals under the new administration could ultimately push the market to that level.
Other brokerages have also raised their targets, with wider bands reflecting increased volatility. Korea Investment & Securities projects a 2,400–2,900 range, expecting third-quarter consolidation followed by a gradual fourth-quarter uptrend. NH Investment & Securities sees 2,350–3,000, while Shinhan Securities targets 2,550–2,780.
Historical precedent supports the optimism.
Eugene Investment's Huh Jae-hwan, analyzing nine presidential elections since 1981, found the Kospi gained after six. Huh noted that, on average, the index rose 3 to 4 percent in the first month and 14 to 16 percent over the year, typically driven more by easing political uncertainty than specific policy pledges.
Analysts emphasized that the Kospi's sustained growth will hinge on foreign investor flows, particularly if the won continues to strengthen.
'A move above 2,600 will need renewed foreign inflows to maintain momentum,' said Noh Dong-kil of Shinhan Securities, calling foreign investment the key driver of a second-half rally.
Foreign investors had been net sellers for nine straight months since August, offloading 15.4 trillion won ($11.2 billion). That sell-off dragged the Kospi from a near-2,900 peak last July to as low as 2,300.
Sentiment rebounded in May as easing US tariff fears and signs of political clarity prompted foreign investors to buy 1.2 trillion won over the month, followed by an additional 240 billion won purchase Monday.
The key driver, analysts say, is currency.
'Foreign inflows are closely tied to dollar moves,' said Kim Soo-yeon of Hanwha Investment & Securities, noting that foreigners typically turned to net buyers about a month before the won strengthened.
After spending much of the year weaker than 2024 levels, and briefly approaching 1,500 won per dollar, the currency slipped to 1,369 won on May 26, its first dip below last year's mark. It has since stabilized in the high-1,300 range.
Daishin's Lee expects further gains. 'Anticipation of stimulus and industrial policies should lift demand confidence and add upward pressure on the won,' he said, projecting the won to enter the low 1,300s against the greenback by the third quarter.
Pro-market campaign pledges
Still, much will depend on how swiftly the new administration delivers, with foreign inflows likely to stay cautious until it fills the policy vacuum left since December.
Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea has pledged to usher in a 'Kospi 5,000 era' by strengthening minority shareholder protections. He calls for overhauling the Commercial Act to improve corporate governance, proposing codified fiduciary duties, expanded cumulative voting and safeguards against spinoff listings.
To bolster market integrity, Lee proposed to permanently ban those convicted of stock manipulation, along with stronger real-time surveillance and stricter clawback rules on short-swing profits. He also reaffirmed Korea's push for inclusion in Morgan Stanley Capital International's developed markets index.
Conservative rival Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party has largely echoed the previous administration's market-friendly stance, proposing dividend tax cuts and incentives for long-term investment. He called for stronger investor outreach through presidential road shows abroad and a financial policy council comprising regulators and private-sector experts.
Kim supports limited governance reform through the Capital Markets Act, not the broader Commercial Act. His proposals target listed firms only, aiming to boost shareholder protection and board expertise, while easing inheritance tax burdens during business succession. Like Lee, he also backs tougher penalties for stock crimes, including life sentences and punitive damages.
In the cryptocurrency space, the two candidates struck rare common ground.
Both backed the launch of spot crypto exchange-traded funds — a key industry demand — while supporting the establishment of a regulatory framework for emerging digital assets such as stablecoins and security token offerings.
Separately, Lee emphasized structural reform, including centralized oversight and lower transaction fees, while Kim leaned toward deregulation, backing institutional trading and the removal of the one-bank-per-exchange rule.
Global headwinds may cloud optimism
Risks remain, as uncertainty over global trade and Korea's weak growth outlook could temper capital markets' recovery.
Korea's export-reliant economy remains exposed to US tariff hikes, with a bilateral deal expected in early July. Until then, outbound shipment prospects remain murky, adding pressure to an economy forecast to grow less than 1 percent this year.
'Trump is likely to continue tariff threats, currency talk and trade renegotiations while pushing tax cuts and deregulation,' said Na Jeong-hwan of NH Investment & Securities. Markets may grow numb to tariff headlines, he added, but US political risks could intensify into September.
Still, with local markets significantly undervalued, Korea's domestic outlook offers room for optimism. 'As long as local markets follow US trends, expectations for fiscal and monetary stimulus under new leadership, coupled with structural reforms, should help lift the Kospi,' Na said.