May CPI numbers won't look as friendly as they did last month, says NatWest's Michelle Girard
Michelle Girard, NatWest head of U.S. coverage and CEO of NatWest Markets Securities, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview May's CPI data, state of the economy, and more.
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Bloomberg Surveillance: Inflation and Tariffs
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney June 12th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, joins for a discussion on CPI and the labor market and whether the Fed will be late to cut rates. The Federal Reserve is rewriting its strategy document to balance the lessons learned from low inflation before the pandemic and the painful high inflation that followed, aiming to maximize economic benefits for working Americans while controlling inflation. 2) Rich Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO and former Fed Vice Chair, joins for an extended conversation on the Fed, rates, and the US economy. Today's 30-year Treasury auction is providing a fresh gauge of investor appetite for long-dated debt amid concerns over mounting deficits and their impact on demand. 3) Ian Lyngen, Head of US Rates at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the outlook for the 10-year-yield and brings us into PPI. President Trump's remarks on imposing unilateral tariffs on dozens of US trading partners and heightened tensions in the Middle East contributed to the risk-off tone across markets today. 4) Anton Posner, CEO at Mercury Resources, discusses how tariffs are affecting shipping and maritime industries and whether it will show up in the economic and consumer data and unilateral tariffs go into place. President Trump has threatened to impose higher duties on dozens of economies, but has only reached a trade framework with the UK and a tariff truce with China, which was recently threatened.
Yahoo
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Sector ETFs Set to Gain as Inflation Cools in May
Inflation in the United States softened in May. The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% year over year last month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. The inflation is down from April's 0.2% increase. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was 2.8%, flat year over year, well below its peaks in 2022 and 2023. Monthly core prices increased just 0.1%, against expectations of a 0.3% gain. The data has temporarily cooled fears of an aggressive inflationary breakout, especially in the face of uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs. It might prompt a more dovish Fed stance, reinforcing market expectations for stable interest rates. Declines in energy and vehicle prices helped offset increases in other categories. Energy prices fell 1% in May, with gasoline prices down 2.6%, marking the 12th consecutive year-over-year decline. New and used vehicle prices declined 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively (read: Oil Prices Rebound: Can the ETF Rally Last?).In contrast, food and shelter prices rose 0.3% each, with shelter being identified by the BLS as the "primary factor" behind the modest CPI increase. Egg prices dropped 2.7% in May but were 41.5% higher than a year ago. Apparel prices fell 0.4%, defying concerns of tariff-driven inflation, while still rising, posted its lowest annual rate (3.9%) since late 2021. That being said, many sectors stand to benefit from this cooling inflation trend. Below, we have highlighted ETFs from these sectors: Lower inflation often translates into higher purchasing power for consumers, thus boosting the performance of the consumer discretionary sector. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund XLY is the largest and most popular product in this space, with AUM of $21.7 billion and an average daily volume of around 4 million shares. It offers exposure to the broad consumer discretionary space and tracks the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund holds 51 securities in its basket, with key holdings in hotels, restaurants and leisure, broadline retail, specialty retail and automobiles with a double-digit allocation each. It charges 8 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold). Tech companies, particularly in the growth segment, are often financed with significant debt, making them sensitive to interest rates. When the interest rates are low, these companies can borrow more cheaply to finance their growth. This can support increased profitability and higher stock prices. As such, Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK seems a prudent choice. It targets the broad technology sector and follows the Technology Select Sector Index. The ETF holds about 69 securities in its basket and has key holdings in software, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, and technology hardware, storage & peripherals. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund is the most popular and heavily traded ETF, with AUM of $74.9 billion and an average daily volume of 6 million shares. The fund charges 8 bps in fees per year and has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) (read: ETFs Poised to Win in the MSFT vs. NVDA Market Cap Battle). Homebuilders tend to benefit from easing inflation. Mortgage rates fall or stabilize in anticipation of rate cuts or pauses, making home loans more affordable. iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB provides exposure to U.S. companies that manufacture residential homes by tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index. With an AUM of $2 billion, it holds a basket of 47 stocks, with a heavy concentration on the top two firms. iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF charges 39 bps in annual fees and trades in a heavy volume of around 2 million shares a day on average. iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank #4 (Sell). With shelter inflation rising at its slowest pace since 2021, REITs may see some relief in their margins. Vanguard Real Estate ETF VNQ targets the real estate segment of the broader U.S. market. It follows the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index and holds 158 stocks in its basket. VNQ has key holdings in retail REITs, healthcare REITs and telecom tower REITs, with double-digit exposure Real Estate ETF is the most popular and liquid ETF, with an AUM of $33.8 billion and an average daily volume of 3 million shares a day. It charges 13 bps in fees per year from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank #4. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ): ETF Research Reports Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB): ETF Research Reports Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
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- Yahoo
Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Carvana, Beyond Meat, Sprouts Farmers Market, Urban Outfitters and LendingTree
Chicago, IL – June 12, 2025– Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Carvana's CVNA, Beyond Meat BYND, Sprouts Farmers Market SFM, Urban Outfitters URBN and LendingTree TREE. Optimistically, May's much-anticipated inflation data came in better than expected amid ongoing concerns that President Trump's tariffs could cause a cost surge. That said, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% from the prior month, below economists' estimates of 0.2% and beneath April's 0.2% monthly uptick as well. Year over Year, CPI rose 2.4% in May compared to expectations of 2.5%, although this was up from 2.3% in April, but April's data marked the lowest yearly increase since February of 2021. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, "Core" CPI rose 0.1% MoM, nicely beneath expectations of 0.3% and April's 0.2% gain. On an annual basis, Core CPI rose 2.8%, matching April's ascent but less than forecast of 2.9%. Keeping May's optimistic CPI data in mind, here are three retail stocks to watch that currently hold spots on the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list. Carvana's e-commerce platform for used cars has embodied consumer optimism, with its stock soaring nearly +3,000% since going public in 2017. These astronomical gains are hard to come by, but what is most appealing is that Carvana is starting to make good on its lofty growth projections thanks to its cost-cutting initiatives. CVNA is only 9% from its all-time high of $370 a share, and EPS estimates have soared over the last 60 days for fiscal 2025 and FY26, justifying more upside. One company that has been able to capitalize on a more health-conscious consumer while Beyond Meat and others have faltered is Sprouts Farmers Market. In the same time frame since Carvana went public, SFM shares are up over +600% to produce market-leading gains of its own. Notably, Sprouts launched its IPO over a decade ago but has gained notoriety in recent years as a provider of grass-fed, gluten-free, and keto-friendly food products. Earning SFM a spot on the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list and glamorizing the company's appealing EPS growth is that FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates are now up 9% and 7% in the last 60 days, respectively. Among fashion apparel retailers, Urban Outfitters stock stands out and has caught the attention of institutional investors. Institutional ownership of URBN shares is now over 70%, which should limit the volatility in Urban Outfitters' stock. This comes as the fashion apparel retailer achieved record quarterly sales of $1.3 billion during Q1, seeing strong brand performance, highlighted by Nuuly, its clothing and resale business that grew 60% and added 110,000 subscribers. On track for another peak in terms of annual sales (projections of $6 billion), Urban Outfitters' operational efficiency sets the company apart from many of its peers, optimizing inventory and enhancing its digital outreach. Like Carvana and Sprouts Farmers Market, Urban Outfitters has seen a very positive trend of earnings estimate revisions in the last two months. Following Wednesday's favorable CPI report, consumer lending stocks are seeing a nice bounce, with LendingTree standing out in particular and up over +2% in today's trading session. It has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at the moment and has appealing growth trajectories, with OneMain having an annual dividend yield of over 7% that certainly appeals to income investors. Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks? Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year. Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation. See Stocks Free >> Media Contact Zacks Investment Research 800-767-3771 ext. 9339 support@ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) : Free Stock Analysis Report LendingTree, Inc. (TREE) : Free Stock Analysis Report Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) : Free Stock Analysis Report Carvana Co. (CVNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
