The plan to save Rachel Reeves
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Sky News' deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Anne McElvoy have their guide to the day ahead in British politics.
The domestic agenda is key today with some hints starting to emerge about what Chancellor Rachel Reeves is planning in her Spring Statement in three weeks' time.
Sam reveals details of a four-point plan to get big government announcements out there before the statement itself.
Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, may or may not help the chancellor's preparations when he appears before the Treasury select committee today.
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Reuters
16 minutes ago
- Reuters
US natgas prices climb 2% on soaring oil futures after Israel strikes Iran
June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday as gas followed oil prices higher after Israel launched strikes against Iran, raising worries that the Gulf nation could disrupt Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies. U.S. crude futures jumped more than 13% overnight, reaching their highest levels since January. Gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 5.9 cents, or 1.7%, to $3.551 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:18 a.m. EDT (1418 GMT). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest level since May 30 for a fourth day in a row. For the week, the front-month was down about 4% after gaining about 13% over the prior two weeks. The premium of gas futures for August over July rose to a record high of 11 cents per mmBtu. With August futures trading higher than July futures so far this year, energy traders said the higher premium was likely due to expectations of lower supply, higher demand and/or a lower surplus of gas in storage in August than July. So far this year, energy firms have pulled a monthly record high of 1.013 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during a brutally cold January and added a monthly record high of 497 bcf into storage in May when mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low, according to federal energy data. The prior all-time monthly injection high was 494 bcf in May 2015. Analysts expect energy firms will set another storage record this week with an eighth triple-digit injection. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release the June 13 storage report a day ahead of schedule on Wednesday, June 18, due to the U.S. Juneteenth holiday on June 19. GAS/POLL During the week ended June 6, energy firms added 100 bcf or more of gas into storage for seven weeks in a row, tying the seven-week triple-digit injection record set in June 2014, according to federal energy data going back to 2010. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has eased to 105.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance. Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 28. With hotter summer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.5 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week and 102.1 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has fallen to 14.0 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's (LNG.N), opens new tab 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3. Energy traders said they expect maintenance to continue through late-June at Sabine, which has been pulling in about 3.0 bcfd of gas since the end of May. That figure compares with an average of 4.5 bcfd during the month of May. text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: opens new tab For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: opens new tab For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps
The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Will interest rates be cut next week? The key factors for the Bank of England and 2025 predictions
The Bank of England 's (BoE) next meeting to determine interest rates is on Thursday 19 June, and all eyes will be on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and whether its members opt to continue lowering rates. The base rate - currently at 4.25 per cent following cuts in February and May - impacts consumers and taxpayers through everything from their mortgages to savings, so what do experts foresee both next week and beyond? Will interest rates be cut next week? Almost certainly not, is the short answer. While back-to-back cuts were considered possible among economists earlier this year, since then we've had more uncertainty over Donald Trump's tariffs, businesses dealing with higher labour costs coming into force, higher than expected inflation rates and now escalating tensions after Israel's strike on Iran. As such, most analysts expect the MPC's June decision to be a split vote, but overall one to hold rates at 4.25 per cent for now. It's worth remembering that for mortgages in particular, many products are priced using future expectations of the interest rate, so changes in that market can still occur. For savers, while no immediate cut to variable rates is likely, it's always worth checking the best offers on the market to make sure your money is earning as much as it can for you. Influential factors around cuts The MPC has nine members and their votes decide if the base rate is cut, raised or kept the same. Barclays analysts expect a 6-3 split vote this time, but say 'the MPC would need to have substantial conviction that the economy is deteriorating quicker than its May forecast' to have another two voters flip to cutting. Even so, three votes to cut at this stage would be indicative of the direction of travel, paving the way for an August cut. Others have pitched expectations at a 7-2 split this time around. Among the factors MPC members will have been looking at are job and wages data, the level of inflation across the UK and also external factors which can impact the UK economy. While inflation data came in higher than expected for April at 3.5 per cent, though a rise overall was already on the cards with increased labour costs. Higher inflation is a reason to keep interest rates up, as it can discourage businesses from investing in new projects or hiring - which in turn raises earnings and spending power. Meanwhile, last week's key data saw salary growth slowing and unemployment rising - these are factors which can see interest rates decrease. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM UK, explained that while pay growth remains higher than ideal for the BoE, the drop-off is at a faster rate. 'The labour market is clearly easing more quickly than expected,' he said. 'Payrolls fell in May by the most since 2023 and private sector pay growth [...] slowed to 5.1 per cent in April from 5.5 per cent in March. Admittedly, pay growth is still well above the 3 per cent that is consistent with 2 per cent inflation. But pay growth is now likely to come in significantly below the MPC's forecast of 5.2 per cent, which will help to ease some concerns that sticky wage growth will keep inflation elevated.' What about the rest of 2025? Most analysts still expect two rate cuts between now and the end of 2025, one in August and one in November, to bring the base rate down to 3.75 per cent. Market rates currently price in an 82 per cent chance of an interest rate cut in August, though that has lowered slightly from earlier this week following Israel's missile attack on Iran. Higher oil prices are generally seen as inflationary, though can lead to lower spending power for consumers too. Investment bank UBS, meanwhile, says inflation is still 'uncomfortably' high and predicts the remaining higher interest rate to push the pound even higher against the dollar across the rest of this year. Barclays is sticking with an expectation of another cut beyond that in February, giving a 3.5 per cent rate by early 2026.
The Herald Scotland
an hour ago
- The Herald Scotland
I know the ingredients of Ulster's riots only too well
When I saw images of the homes of immigrant families in Ballymena with loyalist flags placed in their windows to ward off racist mobs, and fearful handmade posters reading 'I work in a care home', I felt as if I was back there. It was all so horribly, desperately, familiar. I grew up about ten miles from the epicentre of the anti-immigrant rioting, in my hometown Antrim. Ballymena and Antrim are like twins. Same people, same problems, same hate. Loyalism runs strong here, as it does in other towns where violence spread: Larne, Portadown, Newtownabbey, Carrickfergus. As a young reporter, I covered crime and terrorism in these places. Read more from Neil Mackay: Back then, the towns of County Antrim were dominated by loyalist paramilitaries. Other areas had Republican gunmen and the IRA. Where I grew up, the UVF and UDA were in charge. Though there's always exceptions to the rule. Republican areas had loyalist pockets, and vice versa. Nothing is ever simple in the north of Ireland. My own family history was far from simple. On my maternal side, it was all Irish, Republican and Catholic. On the paternal side, all British, Loyalist and Protestant. Only in a place like Northern Ireland could the term 'mixed marriage' exist into the 21st century. So I got to know what makes both sides tick. I learned to understand – not accept, just understand – their hatreds. When I learned enough, I'd had enough. That's why I left and have lived in Scotland these last 30 years. I couldn't bear the place anymore. Though, in my heart, I still love its beauty, and its people. When my people are good – on both sides – they're very, very good. When they're bad, they're monsters. There's a terrible truth about what has happened in Northern Ireland, which might help folk in Scotland, bewildered by the labyrinthine history and tribal complexity of my country, understand the deep roots of recent events. Read more: The truth lies in what's called the 'siege mentality' of Ulster's loyalists. I deliberately differentiate between loyalism and unionism. Unionism is a perfectly respectable, mainstream political position. Loyalism has much darker shades to it. Everything is on a spectrum in Northern Ireland. There is, after all, a world of difference between an Irish nationalist who believes in gaining a United Ireland through democratic means, and an advocate of the IRA and armed republicanism. Loyalism's siege mentality has deep roots in the past. It goes back to the Plantation of Ulster in the 1600s, when mostly Scottish Protestants settled lands once owned by Irish Catholics. In effect, Ireland became the first 'British' colony, and Ulster was ground zero. To take someone's land you must fight them, and that means you must kill them and they'll kill you back. To kill people, you must learn to hate them. Therein lies the source of loyalism's siege mentality. Loyalists just never felt safe on the land they took. Why would someone from Ireland, like me, have a name like 'Mackay'? The plantation is your answer. Sometime, long ago, my paternal Scottish ancestors colonised the land which my maternal Irish ancestors owned. Siege mentality requires a sense of your own supremacy. You must think: this is my land, nobody else deserves it. Wars and bloodshed have come and gone, but such ancestral traits are hard to shake. All of us carry some burden inherited from our grandfathers and grandmothers. The Troubles are over. Such a ghastly euphemism for what it was: an ethnic civil war of neighbour against neighbour. But grievance and supremacy linger on. To many hardline loyalists, this land is still their land and nobody can claim any right to it; others do not belong, just as Catholics once didn't belong. You can see how such deep psychological currents can easily wash up against the shores of present-day racism and anti-immigrant hate. Thus, all those loyalist flags placed in immigrant windows; thus, all those signs saying 'we're local, we work in care homes'. It was an attempt to say 'we don't threaten you', 'we aren't here to take what you believe is yours'. Even after the riots began, politicians from the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice party talked of 'the influx of Roma' and 'very real grievances' among the people of Ballymena. So far, it appears that loyalist paramilitaries are not orchestrating the violence. Yet. Though the burning of homes has called to mind images of loyalist mobs burning Catholics out of Belfast at the start of the Troubles: the trigger for the arrival of the British army. Aaron Edwards, a Northern Irish security analyst and author who I know and whose work on loyalism I respect, says the absence of loyalist paramilitaries 'may not last for long'. The areas where rioting happened are poor. It is easy for violent men to exploit marginalisation and deprivation. Evidently, supremacy and poverty are a combustible mix. Nor can we forget the long links between loyalist terrorists and the British far-right. That truth came roaring into sight during last summer's far-right riots, which spread from England to Ulster. These are dangerous times in Northern Ireland, where violence and hatred are never far from the surface. What we're seeing may look very new – very 21st century – but the tragedy is that this is a very old toxin still poisoning the country that I both love and loathe.
