Can Pakistan's new anti-extremism policy defeat rising armed attacks?

Al Jazeera

25-02-2025

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan has unveiled a new policy to tackle 'violent extremism' using an unlikely bouquet of tools, including school curriculum changes, religion and social media outreach, in addition to military tactics, at a time when deadly armed attacks are surging.
However, many analysts caution that the plan is too ambitious, thin on details and difficult to execute under the overall leadership of an army attuned to using military force as its primary weapon. Some experts argue that the National Prevention of Violent Extremism (NPVE) Policy, as the new plan is called, is in effect 'old wine in a new bottle'.
The latest policy, released for public view last week, comes at a time of escalating violence, particularly in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan.
According to figures from the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank, 2024 was the deadliest year in nearly a decade for Pakistan. The data reveals that 2,526 people were killed in attacks last year – including nearly 700 security personnel, more than 900 civilians, and approximately 900 armed fighters.
The majority of these attacks were carried out by the Pakistan Taliban, known by the acronym TTP, an armed group ideologically linked to the Taliban in Afghanistan. The TTP has been waging an armed rebellion against Pakistan since its emergence in 2007.
While Pakistan has introduced similar anti-extremism frameworks in the past, the new 71-page document [ PDF ], prepared by the National Counter Terrorism Authority – an autonomous government body responsible for intelligence gathering, threat assessments, and counterterrorism strategies – is different, said Dayyab Gillani, NACTA's director of research and development.
The key shift, according to him, is that the new policy promotes a 'whole-of-society' strategy to prevent 'violent extremism', including using 'non-kinetic' means. In military terminology, kinetic measures refer to armed force.
'The so-called war on terror has taught us that military operations alone are not a sustainable strategy. Kinetic successes are only temporary, as they fail to eliminate terrorism at its roots,' Gillani told Al Jazeera during a recent interview in Islamabad. 'The causes and drivers of terrorism were never removed, which is why terrorism has resurfaced repeatedly, despite short-term gains.'
What does the NPVE Policy say?
Gillani, who joined NACTA two years ago, said work on the NPVE originally began in 2019, but political instability delayed its completion until 2024. The policy was approved by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's cabinet in December.
The policy presents a '5-R' approach – Revisit, Reach Out, Reduce, Reinforce, and Reintegrate – with a series of 700 corporate-style key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure effectiveness in the short, medium and long term.
The first policy action, 'Revisit', focuses on reforming the curriculum and engaging youth and influencers like teachers and religious leaders. 'Reach Out' aims to promote a national narrative through media and by countering hardline narratives on social media.
'We live in the age of social media, which has become a major tool for radicalisation,' Gillani said. 'This necessitates a revamped communication strategy.'
'We must foster a culture of tolerance, acceptance, and inclusion, where people respect social, political, and religious differences without resorting to violence,' he added.
'Reduce' targets youth and women through peace initiatives and research on women's roles in armed rebellion. 'Reinforce' seeks to promote peace and tolerance through arts, culture, and scientific innovation.
The final policy action, 'Reintegrate', involves de-radicalisation, rehabilitation, and reconciliation programmes for former fighters and conflict-affected communities.
'A state's fundamental responsibility towards its citizens is to provide care for them. Non-kinetic measures, which are empathetic in nature and approach, is what the government needs to focus on in order to counter extremism,' Gillani said.
Military operations and old policies
Pakistan has faced two decades of armed violence and has launched multiple military operations to combat armed groups.
Following the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent United States invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan became a refuge for Taliban leaders and al-Qaeda members fleeing Afghanistan.
After the TTP gained ground in Pakistan, the army launched several campaigns to eradicate them and regain control of the territory. However, it was not until the 2014 attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, in which more than 140 children were killed, that the government formulated a National Action Plan (NAP) – one of its first formal frameworks to counter armed rebellion. Similar policies have since been launched and updated.
But Gillani argued that these previous policies were 'reactive' and primarily focused on kinetic measures, making the NPVE's preventive and community-based approach unique.
'Community engagement is critical to success. Kinetic measures leave lasting scars on communities that have suffered violence,' he said. 'That's why we emphasise prevention.'
Policy implementation challenges
But while analysts acknowledge that the NPVE strikes a balance between military and non-military strategies — at least on paper — they warn that the policy's ambitious scope poses implementation challenges.
'Pakistan has a history of well-intentioned policies failing due to poor implementation. The success of this policy depends on whether the state ensures its proper execution,' said Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Similar concerns were raised by Iftikhar Firdous, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a platform tracking regional security.
'This policy acknowledges that intellectual capital is as crucial as military action, as ideologies are often more influential than weapons. However, the policy's implementation framework lacks the rigour required to achieve its objectives,' said Firdous, who is based in Peshawar.
At the heart of those implementation challenges is a central question: Who gets to execute the policy?
Civilian vs military control
Although NACTA is a civilian institution, Pakistan's security policies have historically been dominated by its powerful military, which has ruled the country directly for more than three decades and continues to wield significant influence even over civilian governments.
'At a time when the military's rapid influence in almost all aspects of society is visible, NACTA is no exception, so when a non-militarised framework to deal with violent extremism is carried out by the military, who can guarantee its success?' Basit, the Singapore-based academic, said.
Firdous concurred that military oversight over the policy would raise concerns.
'How can NACTA operate effectively if it is perceived to be encroaching on the jurisdiction of other law enforcement agencies? Can a civilian-led NACTA be accepted in a system dominated by the military? These are crucial questions that need to be answered for consensus building and for implementing the policy,' he added.
Rohan Gunaratna, a professor of security studies at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, argued that the new policy also suffers from another flaw.
It is crucial for Pakistan to develop 'tailored policy options' that cater to the specific needs of each group of the society, he said.
'While the NPVE Policy can serve as a comprehensive guideline, it requires region-specific models to address the unique challenges faced by different groups and regions,' Gunaratna told Al Jazeera. 'A one-size-fits-all approach won't work.'