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First Post
3 days ago
- First Post
‘No foreign backing, no arms' for Hezbollah, Lebanon tells Iran's security chief
Lebanon's president warns against foreign-backed armed groups as his cabinet approves a US-backed plan to disarm Hezbollah amid Iranian assurances of respect for sovereignty and renewed debate over the group's weapons. No group in Lebanon is permitted to bear arms or rely on foreign backing, its president told a visiting senior Iranian official on Wednesday after the cabinet approved the goals of a U.S.-backed roadmap to disarm the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group. During a meeting in Beirut with Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's top security body, Joseph Aoun warned against foreign interference in Lebanon's internal affairs, saying the country was open to cooperation with Iran but only within the bounds of national sovereignty and mutual respect. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Larijani said the Islamic Republic supports Lebanon's sovereignty and does not interfere in its decision-making. 'Any decision taken by the Lebanese government in consultation with the resistance is respected by us,' he said after separate talks with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, whose Amal movement is an ally of Hezbollah. By 'resistance', Larijani was alluding to the Shi'ite Muslim militant Hezbollah, which was founded in 1982, grew into a 'state-within-a-state' force better armed than the Lebanese army and has repeatedly fought Israel over the decades. 'Iran didn't bring any plan to Lebanon, the U.S. did. Those intervening in Lebanese affairs are those dictating plans and deadlines', said Larijani. He said Lebanon should not 'mix its enemies with its friends - your enemy is Israel, your friend is the resistance'. 'I recommend to Lebanon to always appreciate the value of resistance." The US submitted a plan through President Donald Trump's envoy to the region, Tom Barrack, setting out the most detailed steps yet for disarming Hezbollah, which has rejected mounting calls to disarm since its devastating war with Israel last year. Hezbollah has rejected repeated calls to relinquish its weaponry although it was seriously weakened in the war, with Israel killing most of its leadership in airstrikes and bombings. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD It was the climax of a conflict that began in October 2023 when the group opened fire at Israeli positions along Lebanon's southern frontier in support of its Palestinian Islamist ally Hamas at the start of the Gaza war. Aoun also said recent remarks by some Iranian officials had not been helpful, and reaffirmed that the Lebanese state and its armed forces were solely responsible for protecting all citizens. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran supported any decision Hezbollah makes, adding that this was not the first attempt to strip the group of its weapons.
Mint
5 days ago
- Mint
Trump's Fed pick is a dove. How Miran could move the market.
Wall Street shrugged at President Donald Trump's plan to nominate his economic adviser, Stephen Miran, to the Federal Reserve. The immediate market reaction to Thursday's announcement was muted, but investors now must factor in another White House-aligned voice pushing for rate cuts and a lighter regulatory touch inside the central bank. Miran, who is chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is slated to complete the term of Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler, whose surprise resignation became effective on Friday. She joined the Board of Governors in September 2023; her term expires at the end of January. The Senate probably won't vote on the Miran nomination before the Fed's September policy meeting. So, the real significance for markets lies in what comes after September. 'This could be the first domino in a sequence leading to looser policy, inflation above target, and a weaker dollar," wrote Daniel Altman, founder of High Yield Economics, in a note. Miran has repeatedly called for a weaker dollar. In a 41-page essay on international trade, published by Hudson Bay Capital last November, Miran maintains that 'the root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade…." A former senior strategist at Hudson, Miran goes on to lay out what he describes as tools for reshaping global trade and the world's financial systems. A key tool, he wrote, is devaluation of the greenback, done by the Fed's ability to create money supply. 'Flooding the market with dollars, thus lowering short-term interest rates and causing higher inflation, would be one way to achieve Miran's goal," said Altman, 'and only the Federal Reserve has the tools to do it." Miran was a hawk who turned into a dove, now arguing that tariffs don't lead to inflation and who has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his reluctance to ease monetary policy. In the past, Miran proposed nationalizing the regional Federal Reserve Banks and making all board members at-will employees who the president can fire at any time. In the near term, Wall Street analysts don't see a major policy pivot at the Fed. 'Miran's appointment will do little to change policy on the margin in the near-term but it does add another dovish voice to the fray," wrote economists at 22V Research. Two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, dissented during the central bank's July policy meeting, advocating for a quarter-point rate cut. There may be, however, 'an element of testing Waller's, and to a lesser extent Bowman's, dovish commitment if Miran is willing to always go one step beyond them in pushing for lower rates," the 22V economists wrote. Miran 'could speak a lot publicly, supporting the president and perhaps openly undermining Powell, but it will be hard for him to move the policy needle," said analysts at Capital Alpha Partners. 'The Fed isn't set up in a way that provides one governor that much influence." The timing of Miran's confirmation is also a market variable. 'Getting Miran approved by the Senate after it gets back from recess on September 5 but before the next FOMC meeting starts on September 16 would be a Herculean task," wrote Michael Feroli at JPMorgan. But, 'In the off chance Miran is governor by the time of the next meeting, that could imply three dissents. That's a lot of dissents." Assuming that Miran is approved by the Senate, Feroli expects the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its next three meetings. Miran's nomination is part of a larger push by the White House to reshape the role of the Fed. Personnel is policy—as the Reagan-era line goes—and analysts think that may be the best way to think about Trump's approach. Luis Alvarado, a global fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, called Miran's nomination a 'strategic move by the Trump administration to advance its economic agenda while also maintaining flexibility for future appointments." The upshot is that investors are now staring at a new vote for cheaper money and a friendlier stance on regulation, factors that could influence the size and pace of cuts, the path of the dollar, and how banks are supervised. Write to Nicole Goodkind at
Indian Express
6 days ago
- Indian Express
China is trying to stifle India's economic rise
Following a military standoff on its western front, India now faces a more subtle form of economic sabotage. The high-profile withdrawal of Chinese engineers from Foxconn's India operations isn't an isolated incident. China curbed access to rare earths that are vital for electronics and auto manufacturing. Further, it has blocked or delayed the import of capital equipment, inputs (parts and components), skilled labour and training to impart skills for electronics (a product with a wide-ranging impact on manufacturing and services). These moves show a deliberate strategy to undermine India's economic rise by increasing uncertainty in global supply chain operations and raising capex and operational costs in key industries. These developments will make it hard for companies operating in India to be an efficient part of the global supply chain. China's strategic message to global firms is that India cannot be a reliable global supply chain partner or a +1 when considering China+1. The intent is clear: Undermine India's economic security and curb its strategic and military strength. There is a view that the situation is not serious for several reasons: Investment in electronics is continuing, and Indian parts and components companies are seeking partnerships with other countries. Also, in the medium to long term, China will suffer because global investors will be insecure with its tactics, and they will feel that China is an unreliable place to invest. However, India, like the rest of the world, relies on China in a major way for its electronics inputs. Further, the price of Chinese equipment and components is much lower compared to other countries. China has focused on electronics manufacturing and exports for nearly three decades. The skills and equipment required by India are not available elsewhere. The Chinese ecosystem is not easy to replicate. According to the India Cellular and Electronics Association, India's total imports and trade deficit for electronics were $98.6 billion and $60 billion respectively, in 2024-25. Of these imports, 42 per cent were from China, and over two-thirds of the Indian trade deficit in electronics was with China. While policymakers and the industry are working feverishly to reduce this dependence, especially in areas such as electronics, the decoupling will require focused collaborative attention for another five to seven years. Regarding the point that China's coercive tactics will eventually push global value chains (GVC) out of China, business realities and shareholder compulsions suggest otherwise. Faced with the choice between costly, uncertain production in India or reliable output from China — even with tariffs — most CEOs would tend to choose stability, because that is a key requirement for efficient GVC operations. China or a China-aligned hub will likely remain their fallback, albeit reluctantly. Also, China would have the option of using its industrial policy support systems to retain global companies in China. Reaching a conclusion that, over time, with effort, GVCs such as Apple will gain supply chain resilience requires discussions with the operator and an awareness of all the different issues that need to be addressed to enable such a task. Higher disabilities (costs) in India are a reality, and many of them require special attention through policy improvement. The transition to a new situation, even in the medium term, will not be feasible for the companies if they act alone. It will need a very active role of the government, just as in the case of China. Since solutions to these concerns would cover different parts of supply chains, no single part of the Government can effectively address all areas. This calls for high-level intervention, ideally through a PMO-led mechanism, to drive a coordinated and comprehensive inter-ministerial response in a timely manner. This is not just theory. In 2019, the government established a high-level Committee that launched Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes to address cost disabilities, with respect to, inter alia, China. The first PLI scheme (for smartphones) is among those that have performed exceptionally well. The current situation requires a similar approach, with much higher-level coordination within the Government, working with a quicker time frame in close consultation with companies and other stakeholders. Singh is former Deputy Director General, WTO and Jha is former Head, UNCTAD India Office
