A bad summit's silver lining
Since his first encounter with Kim Jong Un, Mr. Trump has argued that U.S. presidents lose nothing by meeting rogue foreign leaders without previously exacting a price. Most everyone else disagrees, especially the rogues. Friday's summit should clear up Mr. Trump's misapprehension. Mr. Putin emerged from diplomatic purdah with flags unfurled, literally. How long before Europeans like France's ever-opportunistic Emmanuel Macron phone Mr. Putin or visit him in Moscow? And how does India, under sanctions from Washington for buying Russian oil, feel about still hanging out to dry?
At the summit's concluding media event, the leaders were addressing multiple audiences: America, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and, never forget, China. Worried about all these audiences, the White House worked assiduously beforehand to lower expectations. Among Americans, only MAGA loyalists could assert their leader had a good day. Russians seemed exuberant, and in Kyiv and other European capitals the mood was disquiet or dismay. Xi Jinping may now be more inclined to meet with Mr. Trump, having noted his evident fatigue during the press conference.
We don't know whether the economic teams—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and their Russian counterparts—took advantage of their free time to confer. From Moscow's perspective, it was a real opportunity. Even if these ministers reached no conclusions, they could have laid the basis for future discussions between Messrs. Trump and Putin, or at least arranged for their own subordinates to prepare the way.
Mr. Trump rated the Putin meeting a 10 'in the sense that we got along great," essentially the only measure he credits. 'Make a deal," he advised Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. 'Russia is a very big power." Mr. Zelensky immediately announced he would meet Mr. Trump in Washington on Monday.
The crucial news, underlining the Monday meeting's importance, came after Mr. Trump left Alaska. He wrote on Truth Social that 'the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up."
That directly contradicts the unanimous pre-summit European view that a cease-fire must be in place before substantive discussions begin. It was unclear how European leaders reacted; their postsummit statement was silent on the subject.
While it is a minority view, I believe Mr. Trump's announcement is positive news for Kyiv, although not for the reason he gives. Cease-fire lines typically fall along existing military front lines. When negotiations follow a cease-fire, particularly when accompanied by the deployment of peacekeeping forces, as has also been suggested, the cease-fire line often hardens. In short order, cease-fire lines can become de facto borders. Consider the history of many United Nations peacekeeping operations, such as Cyprus since 1964, or the Korean Armistice, which after two years of negotiations froze the border between North and South Korea for 72 years and counting.
Mr. Putin's postsummit remarks emphasized that Russia's aims—essentially re-creating the Russian Empire, hadn't changed a scintilla. Russia holds roughly 20% of Ukraine's territory, doubling from the approximately 10% seized in 2014 in the first phase of Moscow's annexation plan. If a cease-fire line traces what Moscow now holds in phase two and negotiations drag on, Mr. Putin will gain time to restore his economy, rebuild and repurpose his army and navy, and prepare for phase three. He has patience, waiting eight years between the first two efforts at reuniting 'little Russia" (as Muscovites call Ukraine), with the rodina, or motherland. In response, Ukraine requires security guarantees, including from Washington—about which Mr. Trump remains exceedingly vague, his recent positive noises notwithstanding.
Kyiv should reject this scenario unequivocally, not embrace it, with one major caveat. Ukraine must have assurances that European and U.S. military assistance will continue at appropriate levels to allow them to resist further Russian advances, and begin regaining lands, to achieve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's stated goal of restoring the country's full sovereignty and territorial integrity. This will force Mr. Trump and the Europeans to decide whether they are prepared to accept Russian aggression or resist it.
Mr. Bolton served as White House national security adviser, 2018-19, and ambassador to the U.N., 2005-06. He is author of 'The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir."
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