Stock market this week: US-India trade deal, Q1 earnings, macro-economic data top triggers that may dictate Dalal Street
On July 18, the Nifty 50 declined by 143 points, or 0.57 per cent, settling at 24,968.40, while the Sensex dropped 502 points, or 0.61%, finishing at 81,757.73.
'Markets edged lower on Friday, losing over half a percent, primarily due to weak earnings. A sharp decline in Axis Bank following its results made participants cautious ahead of upcoming earnings from other banking heavyweights, namely HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, which are scheduled over the weekend. Additionally, the results of another index heavyweight, Reliance Industries, expected after market hours on Friday, further added to the cautious sentiment. As a result, the Nifty index nearly tested the support zone of 24,900 before settling at 24,968.40 level,' said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Markets continued to decline for the third straight week, as investor sentiment remained cautious amid a weak start to the earnings season and persistent uncertainty over the US-India trade agreement.
Like the previous week, the benchmark indices initially showed some strength in the first three sessions, but the momentum shifted downward in the latter part of the week.
By the end of the week, both the Nifty and Sensex closed near their weekly lows at 24,968.40 and 81,757.73, respectively.
On the Nifty outlook next week, brokerage firm Bajaj Broking said, ' Nifty on the weekly chart formed a bear candle with a lower high and lower low signaling continuation of the corrective decline for the third consecutive week. Market activity was largely stock-specific, awaiting concrete cues on both macro and micro fronts. The market is expected to be volatile in Monday's session, driven by the quarterly results of key index heavyweights—Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank. These earnings will serve as a crucial trigger to watch. Key level to track remains at 24,900. A sustained breach below the same could prolong the corrective phase towards 24,600–24,400. Conversely, holding above may trigger a technical rebound towards last week high (25,255). However, only a breakout past last week's high would confirm a pause in ongoing correction and open upside potential towards 25,500–25,600 in the near term.'
Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, it added, ' Bank Nifty formed a sizable bear candle signaling profit booking at higher levels for the second session in a row. The index on Friday's session breached the last 10 sessions consolidation range 56,500-57,600 signaling extended decline. A follow through weakness will open further downside towards 55,000 levels. Key short-term term support is placed at 56,000–55,500 region, representing a confluence of the 50-day EMA and the key retracement level.'
India and the United States have completed the fifth round of discussions for the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in Washington. The four-day talks, held from July 14 to 17, were headed by India's chief negotiator and special secretary in the commerce department, Rajesh Agrawal.
This round of negotiations is especially significant as both countries are working to finalize an interim trade pact before August 1. This date marks the conclusion of the suspension period for the Trump-era tariffs, which had introduced additional duties of up to 26% on imports from several nations, including India.
According to reports, Donald Trump has increased pressure in trade talks with the European Union by insisting that any agreement include a minimum tariff ranging between 15% and 20%.
On the macroeconomic side, key data indicators like India's Infrastructure Output and HSBC Flash PMI figures for Manufacturing, Services, and Composite sectors will be closely monitored.
The focus will stay on the ongoing earnings season as a number of major results are expected. In the coming sessions, several leading companies such as Infosys, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Bajaj Finance, Nestle India, and Cipla are set to release their quarterly earnings.
The IPO buzz in the primary market is all set to continue as 10 new public issues, including five in mainboard segment, are scheduled to open for subscription next week.
Apart from new issues, the market will also witness listing of Monika Alcobev IPO in the coming week.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) offloaded shares worth ₹ 3,694 crore in Indian equities, whereas Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) made net purchases amounting to ₹ 2,820 crore, as per provisional data from the NSE, on Friday, July 17.
DIIs bought shares totaling ₹ 13,523 crore and sold shares worth ₹ 10,702 crore. Meanwhile, FPIs purchased stocks worth ₹ 11,633 crore but sold ₹ 15,327 crore during the day.
Cumulatively for the year, FPIs have been net sellers of equities valued at ₹ 1.32 lakh crore, while DIIs have emerged as net buyers with a total of ₹ 3.67 lakh crore.
Crude oil futures remained largely steady on Friday amid mixed signals from U.S. economic and tariff developments, along with concerns over supply due to the European Union's newest sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Brent crude slipped by 24 cents, or 0.3%, closing at $69.28 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 20 cents, or 0.3%, finishing at $67.34. Both benchmarks ended the week roughly 2% lower.
Gold prices climbed on Friday, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties that increased the appeal of the safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, platinum prices dipped after touching their highest levels since 2014.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,351.18 per ounce, rebounding after a 1.1% decline in the previous session.
According to Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, market indices to remain in a consolidation phase with a negative bias in the near term, driven by a weak start to the earnings season and prevailing global uncertainties.
" Nifty ended the week below the key psychological mark of 25,000, indicating sustained caution. The index remains vulnerable to further downside if it breaks below the immediate support zone of 24,900. A breakdown could drag the index toward the 24,450–24,700 zone in the coming sessions.
On the upside, the 20-day EMA—currently acting as a short-term hurdle—may restrict recovery around the 25,250 mark. A decisive move above this level is essential for any bullish reversal. Until then, the broader trend is expected to remain under pressure," Mishra said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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