Why The Planes Russia Lost In Ukraine's Drone Strike Are Such A Big Deal

Yahoo

3 hours ago

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) carried out a massive drone strike against Russia's military on June 1, specifically targeting the invading power's so-called strategic aircraft. These are amongst the most precious assets Russia has, and their loss represents a significant blow not just to the country's pride, but it's actual combat strength. That these attack were conducted so far inside of Russian territory doesn't merely add insult to injury, it massively expands the scope of its vulnerability.
Codenamed Spiderweb, the Ukrainian operation involved smuggling 150 first-person view (FPV) drones into Russia, which were then hidden within the roofs of wooden cabins. The cabins were then hauled off by cargo trucks by hired Russian drivers who had no idea they'd become accomplices in a strike against their own country. Once those trucks were parked near the target airbases [Kyiv Post], the roofs were remotely opened, allowing the drones to leap out and kamikaze themselves into the parked planes.
Reports indicate that a total of 117 drones assaulted four airbases across the breadth of Russia, damaging or destroying 41 aircraft. While this operation doesn't necessarily change the immediate situation on the ground of the war, it will leave a lasting impact on Russia and, very possibly, the future of warfare. It's a pretty big deal.
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There are a lot of claims flying around about what planes exactly got hit, not all of which have been verified. Thus far, it seems like the losses definitely include Tupolev Tu-95s (pictured), Tupolev Tu22Ms, and Beriev A-50s.
Tu-95s (called "Bears" by NATO) are relics from the 1950s; they don't even use jets, just old-school propellers. Roughly comparable to an American B-52, it is a slow but sturdy heavy bomber. The Tu-22M (called "Backfires") is also a heavy bomber, but has the distinction of being supersonic, capable of flying over Mach 3. They are both capable of firing cruise missiles, and in fact have done so throughout the Russo-Ukrainian War. Critically, they are also nuclear-capable, making them a central part of Russia's claim to superpower status.
A-50s (called "Mainstays"), meanwhile, are airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) planes, analogous to the American E-3 AWACS. These are basically flying radar stations, able to detect enemy planes at vast distances and then coordinate friendly aircraft in the ensuing battle. Without them, fighters and bombers have to rely on their own (puny) on-board radar systems. If Russia ever wants to win an air battle, it needs its A-50s.
There's a saying that fighter pilots make movies, but bomber pilots make history. Strategic bombers are the planes that can deliver huge payloads into a wide area, causing immense devastation. They're how you take out, say, an entire enemy military base. They are also one leg of the so-called nuclear triad, the name of the three ways one country can nuke another: By intercontinental ballistic missile (the big ones in the silos), by submarine, or, in this case, by strat bomber.
To be a major global military power, you have to have a vast fleet of strat bombers. Without them, while you still might be able to conduct smaller strikes against smaller targets, you won't be able to seriously threaten hardened installations from the air, and your nuclear strike capability is curtailed. Operation Spiderweb, therefore, hasn't simply been "another" Ukrainian attack; it has struck a direct blow to Russia's ability to project military force at significant scale. That's bad enough for Russia on its own merits. But it's actually worse than it seems.
So Russia has lost some important bombers. Surely, it will just replace them, right? Well, the country has just one small problem: It can't. The Tu-95 and Tu-22M are not even in production anymore, given that they are both Cold War relics. Russia's modern(ish) strat bomber is the supersonic Tu-160 (called "Blackjack", pictured), somewhat similar to America's B-1B Lancer. The catch is that Russia hasn't actually built a Tu-160 in years, and it won't be cheap or easy to get production back up and running again.
That means the planes that Ukraine destroyed weren't just blows, but permanent blows. The little country has materially weakened the bigger one, not just for this war, but for the foreseeable future. By how much? According to Ukraine, Operation Spiderweb took out a whopping 34% of Russia's entire bomber fleet. One-third. Of its entire bomber fleet. That can't be replaced.
To be fair, it's not yet clear how many of these planes were merely damaged, not destroyed. Some of them will likely be repaired. Then again, there are also unconfirmed reports that Spiderweb also hit some of the precious Tu-160s. If those are also getting taken out, Russia's biggest, most expensive, most devastating planes are getting bombed back into the stone age... by cheap drones.
A Tu-160 heavy bomber costs about $500 million. A first-person view (FPV) drone, like the ones Ukraine used in Spiderweb, costs somewhere around $500. FPV drones are designed to be remote piloted using VR goggles so that you can see exactly what the drone sees, unlike more conventional camera drones that you might watch through your phone. This gives the operator a much more detailed view of where the drone is flying, making them a good choice for racing, exploring or, well, blowing up the nuclear strike capability of a major world power.
Once smuggled into Russia in wooden cabins hauled by unsuspecting Russian truck drivers, the drones were controlled remotely by Ukraine's operatives via Russia's own 4G and LTE cell phone services. Good thing those airbases had excellent reception (or bad thing, if you're Russian). As kamikaze drones strapped with explosives, all the operators had to do was fly them straight at the strat bombers' most vulnerable points, and then, boom.
For what it's worth, immediately after the attack, Russia claimed that it had captured these operators. Ukrainian officials found that interesting, as they replied by saying all the operators were already safely back in their home country.
Operation Spiderweb may well be looked back on as a turning point in the development of warfare. The fact that a global world power's nuclear bombers, some of the most important and expensive assets it has, can be successfully destroyed by a couple of cheap drones signals a sea-change in the balance of combat power. Generally speaking, warplanes were considered broadly safe once parked back at their airbase; that's clearly no longer the case. Countries may have to start investing in hardened aircraft shelters, which will be hugely expensive at scale; simply slapping car tires on the bombers clearly isn't enough. In other words, military aircraft are now getting even more expensive to field, while cheap drones are only getting more capable.
Meanwhile, on June 4, just three days after Operation Spiderweb, Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) conducted a successful cyberattack against the United Aircraft Company, the manufacturer of the Tu-160 bomber and many other Russian planes. HUR made off with 4.4 gigabytes of classified information, leaving only one thing behind: a graphic image of a Russian plane being snatched by a (presumably Ukrainian) owl. First, strike the bombers; then, strike the bomber manufacturer. All with non-conventional weaponry.
Traditional views of military hardpower are being upended by the creativity and heroism of Ukraine's defenders. The future of our world may depend on how other countries, including America, adapt to these lessons.
Not surprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate for Ukraine's daring attack. Indeed, on June 7, Russia launched a huge drone and missile strike across Ukraine, hitting the cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Lutsk, and others. On June 9, it then launched its single largest drone attack of the entire war; critically, it targeted an airbase far from the border, thus mirroring Spiderweb in that way.
Still, let's be clear: "Single largest drone attack of the entire war" means 479 drones, or just nine more than the previous record-holding strike on May 31, before Spiderweb even happened. In other words, Russia is throwing everything it has at Ukraine on a weekly basis anyway; at least so far, its "retaliations" have been just another day at the office. Putin's war has been so brutal that there may not be much more he can really do.
In the meantime, the ground war grinds on. Peace talks between the two sides in Istanbul continue, so far without much to show for it. The question for Putin is how much of a price he's willing to pay to keep the war going, in exchange for what gains. Spiderweb changes that calculus dramatically. Whether a dictator cares remains to be seen.
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