Trump gets an unexpected ally in East Asia

Politico

8 hours ago

ALL THE WORLD'S A STAGE — South Korean President Lee Jae-myung arrived in Canada today for his G7 debut, less than two weeks after winning a snap election held after his predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol, was removed for unlawfully declaring martial law.
By stepping on the global stage so early in his presidency, Lee is sending a message: The domestic instability within his country is over, and South Korea is ready to be a reliable partner again to global leaders. Lee, however, is stepping into the spotlight during a particularly tumultuous time. President Donald Trump's tariffs have shaken the global economy. New security alliances are emerging among countries like China, North Korea and Russia. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs are causing fissures in existing alliances with U.S. allies, including South Korea.
At first glance, a progressive like Lee might seem like an awkward fit with American security interests, especially compared to Yoon, a conservative who staunchly allied himself with the U.S and its foreign policy priorities. Historically, Korean progressives have tried a different tack, looking to soften relationships with China and North Korea, while antagonizing Japan for failing to properly acknowledge its history of colonization within the peninsula.
But Lee has gone out on a limb to clarify that he's not an ideological purist and will pursue 'pragmatic' foreign policies, even saying that he's willing to 'crawl between [Trump's] legs if necessary, and if that's what I have to do for my people.' That means Lee will likely avoid any moves that disrupt the U.S.-Korea alliance, including getting too cozy with China or disrupting ties with Japan. Already, Lee has expressed his openness to holding a trilateral meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump at the G7 summit.
It's an approach that will be welcomed in Washington since the U.S. needs its two strongest allies in East Asia — South Korea and Japan — to work together to combat China's growing influence in the region and North Korea's developing arsenal.
Where Lee and Trump align is their approach to the U.S.-South Korea military alliance: Since his first presidency, Trump has pushed South Korea to take on more responsibility for its own defense, and South Korean progressives have historically been more open to increasing budget spending, said Karl Friedhoff, an expert in East Asian security at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Friedhoff pointed to former progressive President Moon Jae-in — who famously had a friendly relationship with Trump and helped him set up the U.S.-North Korea summit in 2018 — and his push for the largest defense spending increases in the country's history. Lee has also emphasized a need to strengthen the military during his campaign, which could help South Korea take on a larger role in joint defense efforts — news that would delight Trump.
Lee's commitment to improving ties with North Korea, which had completely deteriorated under Yoon, may also help the U.S.-South Korea alliance in the long run, Friedhoff said.
'If North Korea is your main enemy, that means you're going to spend more on land forces and the army. But if it's no longer the main enemy, that means you can begin to look elsewhere for your defense priorities,' Friedhoff said. 'Ultimately, that's really good for the alliance, because we want South Korea to do more, and the chips that they have are going to be helpful for the alliance long term.'
Improved relationships between South and North Korea would also be uniquely beneficial for Trump, who has previously expressed interest in building closer ties with Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Eun. It remains to be seen if Kim is interested in reengaging with Trump following a failed summit in 2018, which was seen as an embarrassment for Kim at the time. If Trump wants a second chance at a summit, it's far more likely to happen under Lee, who believes dialogue is the best way to diffuse nuclear tensions, than Yoon, who designated North Korea as the 'main enemy.'
And while there have been headlines about Lee warming up to China — Lee and President Xi Jinping pledged to have a closer economic and security partnership — any concerns of South Korea prioritizing China over the U.S. are likely overblown: 'The United States is like an insecure romantic partner,' Friedhoff said. 'Any hint that South Korea might have an improved relationship with China, or North Korea, for that matter, has everyone saying, 'Oh, South Korea is going to move to China's side.''
'Something that every progressive president has emphasized is that the alliance is not going anywhere. There's no intention to move away from it,' Friedhoff said, pointing out that South Korea is simply repositioning itself with China as it considers ways to bolster its economy. 'The expectation that South Korea is going to move away from China and take a harder line — as the Trump administration will want, even as the economy is so dependent on China — is just not realistic,' he said.
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What'd I Miss?
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— Department of Energy looks to gut sex discrimination protections for education programs, athletics: The Trump administration is seeking to rescind key civil rights protections for sex discrimination in sports and education programs through a swift regulatory process at an unlikely agency: the Department of Energy. Buried in a list of more than three dozen regulation changes published in May, the DOE is moving to rescind regulations that oversee sports participation and sex discrimination protections for students in education programs. The direct final rules align with a series of executive orders signed by President Donald Trump earlier this year that seek to ban transgender athletes from women's sports and one that proclaimed there are only two sexes — male and female.
— American Bar Association sues Trump administration over executive orders targeting law firms: The American Bar Association is suing the White House to stop President Donald Trump's use of executive orders to punish and pressure law firms. The ABA — a voluntary professional organization for lawyers — alleged in its complaint filed in federal court in Washington today that the executive orders pursued by the Trump administration, as well as the deals it has reached with some of America's top law firms seeking a reprieve from federal sanctions, have cast a 'blizzard-like chill' across the legal industry.
— Trump fires former Biden chair from Nuclear Regulatory Commission: President Donald Trump has terminated Commissioner Christopher Hanson from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the latest move by the White House to assert control over independent agencies. Hanson said in a statement today that he was removed from the position Friday 'without cause' and 'contrary to existing law and longstanding precedent regarding removal of independent agency appointees.'
— Trump administration slapped with 'impoundment' violation for freezing library, museum funding: For the second time this year, the federal government's top watchdog concluded today that the Trump administration violated the law by withholding funding that Congress already approved. This time, the Government Accountability Office found the Trump administration flouted the law by clawing back federal cash Congress enacted to support libraries, archives and museums throughout the country. By freezing money that's supposed to flow through the Institute of Museum and Library Services, the Trump administration violated the 51-year-old law barring presidents from withholding federal dollars without approval from Congress, the watchdog concluded.
— Trump: 'There would be no war' if Russia were in G8: 'The G7 used to be the G8,' Donald Trump mused after a bilateral meeting with host Prime Minister Mark Carney at the G7 summit in the Canadian Rockies. Standing next to a mute Carney today, the U.S. president blamed his predecessor, Barack Obama, and previous Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for dropping Russia from the alliance over its 2014 invasion of the Crimean peninsula. 'Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in. And I would say that was a mistake because you wouldn't have a war right now,' he said of Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
AROUND THE WORLD
READYING FOR WAR — All of NATO's eastern flank countries are revisiting crisis response protocols for health-care facilities, organizing training exercises, investing in ballistic helmets and vests, and shifting operating theaters underground. The conflict in Ukraine has shattered the illusion that Europe is safe from war.
'It's not a question of if [Russia] will attack,' said Ragnar Vaiknemets, deputy director general of the Estonian Health Board, which oversees preparedness for crises from pandemics to war. 'It's a question about when.'
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown that modern conflicts no longer spare health services — or the civilians they serve. Eastern European countries are taking note.
Located just 50 kilometers from the EU's external border with Belarus, Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics is developing underground infrastructure, shelters, helicopter landing sites and autonomous systems that would allow it to function even if electricity or water supplies were cut off.
Santaros is not unusual. In Estonia, in addition to body armor for ambulance crews, satellite phones would be distributed to maintain communications if traditional networks fail. Plans are even in place to generate an independent internet network if necessary.
Read POLITICO EU's feature on hospitals' war readiness here.
KNOCK IT OFF — Convincing President Donald Trump to stop his global trade war is among the EU's top priorities for the G7 summit in Canada, the bloc's leaders said.
European Commission boss Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council António Costa on Sunday both urged Trump to stop hurting the global economy with tariffs.
'Let's keep trade between us fair, predictable and open. All of us need to avoid protectionist measures — this is an important message that the G7 can send to the markets and to the world,' von der Leyen told reporters, speaking alongside Costa at the first press conference of the G7 leaders' meeting in Canada.
Costa said the EU can't increase defense spending, as Trump wants it to, if it has to fight a trade war at the same time.
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RADAR SWEEP
BITE SIZED TELEVISION — The sitcom, running at around 22 minutes per episode, used to define 'short-form' television. Now, it's a whole lot shorter than that. Wildly popular already in much of Asia, in particular in China, 'microdramas' are composed of 60 to 90 second 'chapters' that consumers can watch vertically on their phones on platforms like TikTok or other streaming video apps. They have a coherent story, but they are very easy to dip in and out of. And now, they're finding some interest in the U.S. as well. These shows hire non-union actors and crew and produce their content for cheap — and rack up views and cash doing so. Elaine Low and Natalie Jarvey explain the phenomenon for their Substack Like & Subscribe.
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