China's Imminent Invasion Of Taiwan

Memri

22-04-2025

Recently, intel sources told the website 19FortyFive that they believe that an attempt by China to invade Taiwan is no less than six months away.[1] A possible Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming months (or in 2027, as some expect) has less to do with China's military readiness and more with the current state of U.S. domestic politics. The Trump administration's Taiwan policy appears to signal to China that if it were to take military action soon, the U.S. might not provide meaningful assistance to defend Taiwan.[2] At the same time, China seems to be adopting an increasingly aggressive posture toward the U.S., as seen in its recent tit-for-tat retaliation against Trump's new tariffs. China has long viewed the U.S. as the sole obstacle to its long-standing dream of "reunification" with Taiwan. As Xi Jinping considers his legacy, he may believe that the window for decisive military action is narrowing.
(Source: Ministry of National Defense, ROC, Taiwan, April 21, 2025)
The 1982 Constitution of the People's Republic of China (PRC) specifically states: "Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of the People's Republic of China. It is the sacred duty of all the Chinese people, including our fellow Chinese in Taiwan, to achieve the great reunification of the motherland."[3] This provision serves as the de facto mandate for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to unify Taiwan with the mainland, even if it necessitates a forceful invasion.
Many speculate that such invasion will take place in 2026, just before the end of Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term. Others speculate that it will happen in 2027 in commemoration of the centennial of the Chinese Civil War and formation of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Whether it be in 2026 or in 2027, I am inclined to believe that China will make its move before 2030. China is already in the final stage of its preparation for an invasion and/or war. This is evident in the wartime infrastructure the CCP has built; in the changes made to the country's foreign-related legal system; in China's tightening of data security; in sanction-proofing the economy; in its stockpile of fuel, essential raw materials and food;[4] and most especially, in ensuring military readiness.
(Source: Ministry of National Defense, ROC, Taiwan, March 31, 2025)
On April 2, 2025, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese PLA simulated an airstrike on what it termed "high-value targets" on the island of Taiwan. Footage of the simulation was posted on YouTube by the CCTV Video News Agency. Code-named "Strait Thunder-2025A," the simulation was carried out by the Eastern Theater Command's air force unit in the central and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait (see MEMTI TV clip No. 11941, The Chinese PLA Eastern Theater Command Simulated Air Strike On 'High Value Targets' Of Taiwan Island, April 2, 2025).
On April 2, 2025, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese PLA aired footage of what it said were long-range live-fire drills in the waters of the East China Sea. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command, was cited in the footage as saying that the drills "involved precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities and have achieved desired effects" (see MEMRI TV clip No. 11944, The Chinese PLA Eastern Theater Command Conducted Long-Range Live-Fire Drills In East China Sea, April 2, 2025).
The Invasion Of Taiwan Could Happen Before 2030
Taiwan is only the first step of Xi's grand plan to assert China's global dominance. The next prize is Southeast Asia – its territories, natural resources, and young population. If Xi is successful in subsuming Taiwan, it is highly likely that an invasion of strategic sovereign territories of Southeast Asian nations will follow. This is because controlling Taiwan and strategic parts of Southeast Asia will make China the undisputed, predominant power in the Indo-Pacific. It is precisely the power base it needs to project its influence worldwide.
This is why the West cannot allow China to succeed in its Taiwan campaign. This is also why Southeast Asian nations must prioritize developing military capabilities for credible deterrence and defense.
Let me substantiate the supposition that the invasion of Taiwan could happen before 2030 with the words of Xi himself. For years, Xi has been alluding to war in various communiques to both his Politburo and Congress. Alone, his statements may not refer to war. But taken collectively and in chronology, these statements point to an imminent invasion.
At the opening of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress in Beijing, Xi said: "We insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and best efforts, but we will never promise to give up the use of force and reserve the option to take all necessary measures."[5] Xi then declared: "We will safeguard the overall interests of the Chinese nation and take resolute steps to oppose 'Taiwan independence' and promote reunification. Our great country will forever stand firm behind all patriots who support reunification."[6] Xi himself said that his mission is "the rejuvenation of the great Chinese race/nation,"[7] an important part of which is the annexation of Taiwan.[8] Xi made it clear that he is unwilling to compromise regarding Taiwan's independence and that the "historical wheel of national reunification and rejuvenation is rolling forward."[9]
Meanwhile, it has been reported that Xi is building a "massive military headquarters that could surpass the Pentagon."[10] The Financial Times reported that Western intelligence agencies think that Beijing is preparing for a large-scale or "including potentially a nuclear war."[11] The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission reported that "Beijing has opened new recruitment centers known as National Defense Mobilization offices across the country since December 2022 while also upgrading air-raid shelters and at least one 'wartime emergency hospital' in Fujian Province, located across the strait from Taiwan."[12] Furthermore, in 2019, the National Health Commission of China "announced a nationwide plan to incorporate blood donation into the country's emerging informational infrastructure: the social credit system (SCS)."[13]
On April 1, 2025, Fu Zhengnan, a CCP military expert at the PLA Academy of Military Science, warned that by conducting joint exercises around Taiwan Island, the PLA was sending a clear message to the world that any attempts to split Taiwan from China would end in failure. "The message the PLA is sending to Taiwan and the entire world is clear: Any form of Taiwan secession – whatever its slogans, disguises, or means are – will only lead to a dead end," he said, in footage posted on YouTube by the CCTV News Agency. On the same day, Taiwan's Defense Ministry wrote on X: "The PLA Navy vessels, led by the aircraft carrier Shandong, were detected from March 29th and entered into our response zone yesterday. The ROC [Republic of China; Taiwan] Armed Forces have monitored the situation and responded accordingly. The PRC [People's Republic of China] continues to escalate military activities in the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific region, intensifying military threats, challenging the international order and regional stability, thereby becoming the greatest 'troublemaker' in the eyes of the international community" (see MEMRI TV clip No. 11945, Chinese PLA Spokesman Fu Zhengnan: Our Exercises Send 'Stern Warning' To Taiwan And The World: The More They Pursue Their Separatist Agenda, The Further The PLA Will Advance Its Actions, April 1, 2025).
China's Legal System To Prepare For War
Even China's legal system has evolved to prepare for war. In January 2020, China updated its "Foreign Investment Law" giving government the power to nationalize foreign assets or investments under special circumstances (i.e. war).[14] In June 2021, China's new "Counter Foreign Sanctions Law" enabled government to seize corporate assets and even detain foreigners if a corporation enforces foreign sanctions against China.[15] In April 2023, an exhaustive update to the Anti-Espionage Law was passed, which broadened the definition of spying.[16]
In terms of data security, China has begun heavily screening the flow of information to the world, both in the private and public sectors. The less the world knows about China's socio-economic and political status, the greater the chance for Beijing to control the narrative.
Consider these developments: Whereas before, China's National Bureau of Statistics would release some 80,000 data points annually, Xi has since cut the amount to 20,000 data points. As a result, China's true situation has become more opaque to the outside world than ever before. Vital corporate information (like customs and financial data) is available only to those with an authorized Chinese ID card. Moreover, access to data streams is now relegated to "trusted" IP addresses within mainland China. Statistics that come out of China are those specifically approved by the CCP and released through Beijing's media channels.
On the next installment of this series, I will describe how China is preparing to combat economic sanctions from the West following its invasion of Taiwan.
*Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star.