The Ingraham Angle - Thursday, May 29
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Politico
7 minutes ago
- Politico
Trump wants a manufacturing boom. The industry is buckling.
President Donald Trump is vowing to spark a manufacturing boom with tariffs to protect American workers and industry. So far, it's manufacturers that have borne the brunt of the pain. The president's surprise decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50 percent will hit domestic manufacturing just as a new report shows the industry is already contracting. Uncertainty about where tariff rates will ultimately land — or where they'll be applied — has forced businesses to make hard decisions that could cut into both profits and hiring. And a leading trade group on Thursday called on Trump to give the companies a break on the tariffs. 'For a president who is intent on building U.S. manufacturing, the tariff strategy he's laid out is remarkably short-sighted,' said Gordon Hanson, a Harvard Kennedy School professor whose groundbreaking 2016 research work, 'The China Shock,' was among the first to sound the alarm about the threat to American industry. 'It fails to recognize what modern supply chains look like.' 'Even if you're intent on reshoring parts of manufacturing, you can't do it all,' he said. 'Steel and aluminum are part of that.' If Trump's tariffs fail to result in a manufacturing renaissance — a central focus of his presidential campaign — it could weaken the prospects of a GOP coalition that's increasingly reliant on working-class voters who supported his protectionist trade policies. But as unanticipated tariffs continue to drive up input costs for companies that need steel and aluminum for production, the warning signs emanating from manufacturers are getting louder. An index published this week by the Institute for Supply Management, which tracks manufacturing, slipped for the third straight month in May as companies made plans to scale back production. A quarterly survey conducted by the National Association of Manufacturers reported the steepest drop in optimism since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, with trade uncertainty and raw material costs cited as top concerns. Federal Reserve data this month reported weaker manufacturing output. The manufacturers' association on Thursday urged Trump to develop a 'speed pass' that would allow companies to avoid costly new duties on imported raw materials and components that are essential to U.S. producers. 'The steel and aluminum tariffs are almost custom-made to hurt American manufacturing,' said Ernie Tedeschi, a former top Biden administration economist who's now with the Yale Budget Lab. Trump and top administration officials argue that tariffs will encourage investment in domestic manufacturers, which should lead to better-paying jobs, a more resilient economy and more secure supply chains. Exports climbed in April as the president's tariffs took hold, which contributed to an eye-popping decline in the U.S. trade deficit. Indeed, the overall economy remains solid, and businesses are continuing to hire, according to Friday's jobs report for May. Despite the trade headwinds, employment in the manufacturing sector has remained steady since Trump took office. 'As the president says, if you don't make steel, you can't fight a war. He's protecting that industry and bringing it back,' Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Senate lawmakers this week. 'You're going to see more steel and aluminum furnaces and mills in the history of this country get built over the next three years.' The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Trump welcomed the monthly jobs report, posting on Truth Social: 'AMERICA IS HOT! SIX MONTHS AGO IT WAS COLD AS ICE! BORDER IS CLOSED, PRICES ARE DOWN. WAGES ARE UP!' Still, domestic manufacturers who rely on international supply chains for critical steel and aluminum inputs will face tough choices if they want to maintain their profits while keeping output steady. 'Higher costs are expected. Higher input prices. The question is, what do you do with those costs? How much can you pass along to the consumer? How much can you negotiate with your suppliers?' said Andrew Siciliano, a partner at KPMG who leads the consulting firm's trade and customs practice. The challenges posed by the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are particularly acute because it's far from clear whether domestic suppliers will be able to meet the demands of domestic manufacturers. Almost half the aluminum used in the U.S. last year came from foreign sources, according to federal data, and roughly a quarter of all steel is imported. Either way, 'input costs are going to be higher,' Siciliano said. 'If they pass it on, it could affect demand. If they don't pass it on, it could affect profitability.' That isn't to say manufacturers won't benefit from tariffs in the long term. To the extent that Trump's overall tariff regime limits imports, U.S.-based industrial production could expand to address unmet demand. The Budget Lab's analysis of Trump's tariff regime — which includes the 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum — projects that manufacturing output could grow by 1.3 percent over the next five years if existing import duties are left in place. But Tedeschi cautioned that growth may exclude segments like electronic and semiconductor production — which tend to generate higher incomes for workers. Meanwhile, output in other sectors like construction or agriculture would likely contract. Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, also said the flurry of new import duties may prompt some manufacturers to actually move their manufacturing facilities offshore rather than subject their supply chains and production processes to multiple tariffs. 'If I have to assemble a bunch of parts and inputs, why don't I just don't do that on the Canadian or Mexican side of the border and then pay the tariff on the final good?' she said. An even bigger challenge may involve finding and training workers who can staff up any facilities that reshore. Most Americans work in the service sector and, to the extent tariffs lead to reshoring, those facilities will likely rely heavily on automation, according to economists at the Bank of America Institute. Finding qualified workers in the U.S. is either too difficult or too expensive. 'Whatever manufacturing production comes back to the U.S. will require far fewer jobs than 30 or 40 years ago,' Hanson said. 'It's just the way the world has gone.'
CBS News
7 minutes ago
- CBS News
Tesla's stock regains ground following Musk spat with Trump
What are the potential implications of the fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk? Tesla's stock price rose in morning trade, regaining some of the ground it lost after an acrimonious online dispute between Elon Musk, CEO of the electric car maker, and President Trump. Tesla shares closed down 14% on Thursday following the heated exchange, with Mr. Trump threatening to strip Musk's companies of their government contracts. The stock was up $15.20, or more than 5%, to $299.90 as of 10:45 a.m. EST. Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said the spat unnerved Tesla investors, he remained optimistic the stock would rebound. "Musk needs Trump and Trump needs Musk for many reasons, and these two becoming friends again will be a huge relief for Tesla shares," he wrote in a research note Friday. Tension between Musk and Mr. Trump "does not change our firmly bullish view of the autonomous future looking ahead that we value at $1 trillion alone for Tesla," Ives added, referring to Tesla's push into robo-taxis and self-driving cars. Musk's net worth on Thursday plunged $34 billion because of the fall in Tesla shares, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. In addition to Tesla, Musk owns The Boring Company, Neuralink, SpaceX, X (formerly known as Twitter) and xAI. Tesla share prices have fallen 26% this year.
CNBC
8 minutes ago
- CNBC
This uranium company wants to break the grip that foreign state corporations have on U.S. nuclear fuel
President Donald Trump's push to dramatically increase nuclear power in the U.S. will require a tremendous amount of fuel, but the country remains heavily dependent on foreign state-owned companies for its supplies, the CEO of the only publicly traded uranium enricher in the world told CNBC. "There's barely enough Western enrichment, if at all, to satisfy existing operating plants," Centrus Energy CEO Amir Vexler said in an interview. "If the nuclear industry is to add all this generation capacity, there will have to be a tremendous amount of enrichment capacity that's added." Trump issued a series of executive orders on nuclear power last month that set a target for the U.S. to quadruple the sector's capacity to 400 gigawatts by 2050. Nuclear energy is one of the few issues in deeply polarized Washington these days that enjoys some level of bipartisan support. Trump's push expands on former President Joe Biden's goal to triple nuclear power by midcentury. Most nuclear plants worldwide use low-enriched uranium, or LEU. The U.S. relied on foreign countries for around 70% of the fuel for its reactors in 2023, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. About 27% of U.S. fuel purchases came from Russia that year, one of the principle geopolitical foes of the U.S. But Russian uranium will be forced out of the U.S. supply chain by 2028 at the latest, after Biden signed legislation in 2024 to ban imports over Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. faces a looming nuclear fuel supply gap due to the loss of Russian uranium. Western enrichment capacity, meanwhile, is dominated by two players that are not American owned. They are France's Orano and a British-Dutch-German consortium called Urenco, according to the World Nuclear Association. The European enrichers are reliable partners and have done a good job supporting the market, Vexler told CNBC. But trade tensions threaten to disrupt global supply chains, he said on the Centrus first-quarter earnings call. "We don't have any domestic fuel cycle capacity, almost at all," Vexler told CNBC, referring to American-owned companies. "We don't mine anything, we don't convert anything. We don't enrich anything. We rely on others. And others are all state-owned enterprises, maybe with a few minor exceptions." The only commercial enrichment facility operating in the U.S. is owned by Urenco, the European consortium. It is located in Eunice, New Mexico. Centrus wants to break the stranglehold that state-owned corporations have over the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain. "The circumstances in the market are such that we believe and we're staking everything we have on the fact that the market needs another enricher," Vexler said. "It needs competition." Trump directed federal agencies on May 23 to develop a plan to expand uranium enrichment capabilities in the U.S. to meet the needs of the civilian and defense sectors. The president's order is sparse on concrete details about how domestic enrichment will be stood up in the U.S. But Centrus' stock has gained 46% as of Thursday's close since Trump's announcement as Wall Street sees the company playing a key role in the effort. The company's shares have risen more than 7% this week as Meta's deal to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy has reinforced the view that demand is increasing as the tech sector hunts for electricity for its data centers. Centrus is one of just two companies that are licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to produce low-enriched uranium in the U.S., the other being Urenco. Bethesda, Maryland-based Centrus is also the only company in the U.S. that has a license to produce a type of fuel that some next-generation nuclear plant designs, such as small modular reactors, are planning to use. The U.S. wasn't always dependent on foreign countries. It was the first country to enrich uranium for the commercial market and was a dominant player in the market through the 1980s. The federal government owned and operated the nation's enrichment facilities during that period. The U.S. sold its enrichment business through a company called the United States Enrichment Corp. in a public offering in 1998. USEC went bankrupt in 2014 as nuclear plants struggled to compete against cheap natural gas and support for the industry declined in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. Centrus emerged from the reorganization of USEC later that year and is now profitable. "We were just not able to compete with other government, state-owned competitors," said Vexler, who took over the helm at Centrus in 2024. When times got tough for the industry, national governments in Europe and Russia would not allow their state-owned enrichers to fail, he said. Centrus operates an enrichment plant in Piketon, Ohio, about 95 miles east of Cincinnati that could one day supply a major portion of U.S. nuclear fuel needs. The Ohio facility has a footprint the size of the Pentagon and could produce enriched uranium equivalent to about 25% of the total purchased by U.S. power plants in 2023, according to Centrus. This is nearly equivalent to the amount of enriched uranium imported from Russia that year. "If that is not sufficient, if domestic requirements, national security requirements, export requirements exceed that, then obviously we have the capability to expand as well," Vexler said. The Ohio plant has not launched commercial operations yet. It is currently producing a small amount of the fuel that the developers of advanced reactor designs are banking on, called high-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU. The Department of Energy buys the fuel that Centrus produces. Centrus' main business right now is importing LEU for U.S. nuclear plants with contracts that run through 2040. It has a waiver to import Russian LEU through 2025 and has applied for waivers through 2027. Under U.S. law, exceptions that allow Russian imports will cease by 2028. Centrus plans to transition away from its trading business as it stands up its domestic enrichment capacity. The vast majority of the enriched uranium produced in Ohio will be sold on the commercial market and potentially for export, Vexler said. "I would certainly aim for us to not only backfill sort of the vacancy that the Russians are creating, but I also hope that we're going to gain market share, both in the LEU and in the HALEU market," Vexler said. But this will require some level of government support given the state-owned competition, he said. Congress has passed $3.4 billion to support domestic enrichment and reduce U.S. dependence particularly on Russia. Centrus is one of several companies competing for the funding. "We've always said that it has to be a public-private partnership," Vexler said. "We've been raising our own funds. We've been raising our own financing. We will contribute significantly to this, but we have to have government support." "There is a path here where we could have a prosperous, commercially competitive American industry," he said.
