The aggressive courting of Tasmania's crossbench MPs is heating up with two weeks until fresh no-confidence motion

Australia Broadcast Center

5 hours ago

After weeks of uncertainty, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff's bid to be recommissioned for another term was endorsed by the state's governor on Wednesday morning.
The decision led to bookmakers paying out on bets for the election, and plenty of big grins from Mr Rockliff.
And he's been hard at work finalising a shake-up to his cabinet that could be announced as soon as Thursday morning.
But things aren't as finite as they seem.
In just two weeks, state parliament will be recalled.
And Labor leader Dean Winter has confirmed Mr Rockliff's government will face a motion of no-confidence when that happens, barely two months after a successful no-confidence motion triggered July 19's snap state election.
So how can it be the case that after an election that was supposed to resolve all the uncertainty, we're back here again?
Firstly, the 2025 election no-one really wanted delivered an eerily similar parliament to the one elected a year before.
In 2024, there were 14 Liberals, 10 Labor MPs, five Greens and six other crossbenchers — three Jacqui Lambie Network MPs and three independents.
This time around, there were again 14 Liberals, 10 from Labor and five from the Greens, and six others on the crossbench. The only real change is that there are five independents, and one Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP.
The Liberals are still in minority and the tensions that existed before the election — about a lack of transparency from the government, concerns about its handling of big projects and the budget — are still very live.
Also, unlike last year's election, where Mr Rockliff's reaction to winning just 14 seats was to immediately move to secure four confidence and supply agreements in a bid to deliver stability, this time he hasn't tried.
He's argued the agreements are good, but not necessary.
Then there's the matter that at least 19 of the 35 lower house MPs are either Labor MPs or from the progressive side of politics — the five Greens and independents David O'Byrne, Peter George, Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland.
That, plus the lack of confidence and supply agreements, has opened the door for Labor, who didn't try to govern after the last election in 2024 or two months ago following the successful no-confidence motion it moved to step up negotiations with the crossbench.
That's the other huge difference to what unfolded two months ago. Labor is actively trying to form a minority government of its own, despite winning just 10 seats.
To do that, it needs the support of the Greens, plus at least three other crossbenchers.
So there are two parties trying to win over the six non-Green members of the crossbench, and only one of them has picked a side, with independent MP Craig Garland saying he'll vote for a no-confidence motion and support the formation of a Labor government.
It means those five other crossbenchers — including three entirely new to parliament in independents Peter George and George Razay and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP Carlo Di Falco — have less than two weeks to decide if they want to depose Mr Rockliff and install a government led by Mr Winter instead.
They're all being aggressively courted by the Liberals and Labor, who will meet with all six on Thursday.
In her decision published on the Government House website, Governor Baker said Mr Rockliff's incumbency meant he had the right to remain in office until parliament decided whether it had confidence in him.
And with Tasmania's constitution requiring premiers and ministers to be commissioned within seven days of the election writs being delivered, Governor Baker says she could not afford to wait for a parliamentary vote.
"I consider myself bound to make an appointment within that period, because the state must not be without a government," Governor Baker said.
But the return date of August 19, much sooner than some were expecting, means that the political uncertainty won't last for too much longer.
Within two weeks, Tasmanians will have an answer to the question an election couldn't solve: Who's going to be the state's next long-term premier?
Both sides have mounted arguments about why it should be them.
But the biggest task now sits with Mr Winter, who sat at the helm while his party suffered a 3.1 per cent statewide swing against it and failed to win a quota in his own right in the seat of Franklin.
He's got to make Tasmanians understand why the parliament is again debating kicking out a premier who received more than two quotas in his seat of Braddon.
And convince people that this time, a no-confidence motion is a positive move to install a Labor government, not a negative tactic to oust a popular premier when he's got no plan to lead the state himself.
And he's got to convince the crossbench, including a Greens party he's at least publicly ignoring, that he's the right man to lead the state, despite his party being rejected at the election.
And convince them to risk facing public backlash and support a no-confidence motion, knowing full well all the commentary that doing so will lead to.
Despite the governor's decision, Tasmanian politics is still extremely turbulent.
And there will be huge consequences for the party, and the leader, caught on the wrong side of the power play that's still got weeks to unfold.