Opinion: Will the Supreme Court throw Legault a lifeline?
A decision from the Supreme Court this fall could potentially reshape Quebec and Canadian politics for years to come. It could also be the political lifeline François Legault was secretly praying for.
Canada's top court has announced it will begin public hearings on the legal challenge to Bill 21 in September. A record 38 groups are to testify before the justices, most of them publicly opposed to Quebec's secularism law.
With his Coalition Avenir Québec trailing far behind in the polls, Legault couldn't have wished for better timing. The clock is ticking on next fall's general election, and he desperately needs a drastic shift in public opinion.
It's unlikely the cabinet shuffle he promised at the beginning of summer will be enough to revive his government's fortunes. He needs much more than that.
A constitutional showdown with Ottawa could be the catalyst Legault is looking for. A strong majority of Quebecers support the principle of separating state and religions. This debate has been simmering for over two decades now — remember Hérouxville, Bouchard-Taylor and the 'reasonable accommodations' crisis under Jean Charest? For many voters, especially francophones, secularism has become over the years a fundamental, non-negotiable value.
When it was first adopted in 2019, Bill 21 was supported by nearly two-thirds of Quebecers. If the Supreme Court rules against it, the backlash could be fierce — and Legault may try to harness the public's anger to his advantage. In his position, a smart move might be to call a snap general election, asking for a strong mandate to defend Quebec's core values and fight for the right to legislate without federal interference.
At this stage, it could be his last remaining wild card — both to save face and to salvage his party's future.
At the heart of the case lies an important legal question: Can a province invoke pre-emptively Section 33 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms — the so-called 'notwithstanding clause' — in order to shield legislation from future court challenges?
But the clause exists for a good reason. As former Quebec minister and respected constitutional scholar Benoît Pelletier once wrote: 'Contrary to what some have argued, the notwithstanding power does not undermine the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Rather, it is part of it. It is intended to ensure that collective interests are fairly taken into account.'
A ruling against Bill 21 could spark a constitutional crisis the likes of which Canada hasn't seen since the failure of the Meech Lake Accord 35 years ago. For many Quebecers, it would be seen as blatant and abusive federal overreach into the province's internal affairs — a move that could even reignite debates over Quebec's place in Canada and bolster support for sovereignty.
Aside from Legault, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is likely watching with anticipation. A nationalist surge in response to the court's ruling could benefit both the CAQ and PQ — potentially at the expense of Pablo Rodriguez's Quebec Liberal Party.
So it seems the Supreme Court is walking a political tightrope.
There's reason to be wary when unelected judges appear poised to tell millions of people — and their democratically elected National Assembly — that they are wrong on an issue as emotionally, historically and culturally charged as secularism in Quebec — a society which, even 60 years after the Quiet Revolution, still bears the scars of centuries of domination by the then all-powerful Catholic Church.
If nationalists play their cards right, the consequences of this ruling could extend far beyond the specific legal question, potentially pushing more Quebecers to seek greater autonomy or even independence from the rest of country.
With just a year to go before the next provincial election, the Supreme Court's decision could prove to be a major — and risky — political turning point. The stakes are high, and Canada's unity now rests in the hands of its nine Justices.
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