Climate action could save half of world's vanishing glaciers, says study
By Issam AHMED
More than three-quarters of the world's glaciers are set to vanish if climate change continues unchecked, a major new study warns, fueling sea-level rise and jeopardizing water supplies for billions.
Published in Science, the international analysis provides the clearest picture yet of long-term glacier loss, revealing that every fraction of a degree in global temperature rise significantly worsens the outlook.
It may sound grim, but co-lead author Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and ETH Zurich, told AFP the findings should be seen as a "message of hope."
Under existing climate policies, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- a pathway that would ultimately erase 76 percent of current glacier mass over the coming centuries.
But if warming is held to the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target, 54 percent of glacial mass could be preserved, according to the study, which combined outputs from eight glacier models to simulate ice loss across a range of future climate scenarios.
"What is really special about this study is we can really show how every tenth of a degree of additional warming matters," co-lead author Lilian Schuster of the University of Innsbruck told AFP.
The paper's release comes as Swiss authorities monitor flood risks following the collapse of the massive Birch Glacier, which destroyed an evacuated village.
While Swiss glaciers have been heavily impacted by climate change, it remains unclear how much the latest disaster was driven by warming versus natural geological forces.
Glaciers are found on every continent except Australia -- from Mount Kilimanjaro to the Austrian Alps and the Karakoram range in Pakistan.
While most are clustered in the polar regions, their presence in mountain ranges across the world makes them vital to local ecosystems, agriculture and human communities.
Vast bodies of snow, ice, rock, and sediment that gain mass in winter and lose it in summer, glaciers formed in the Earth's deep past when conditions were far colder than today.
Their meltwater sustains rivers critical for farming, fisheries, and drinking water.
Their loss can have profound ripple effects, from disrupting tourism economies to eroding cultural heritage.
In recent years, symbolic glacier funerals have been held in Iceland, Switzerland and Mexico.
"The question I always get is, why are you a glaciologist in Belgium?" said Zekollari. "Well -- sea level rise. Glaciers melt everywhere on Earth... and that affects coastal defenses even in places far from mountains."
Around 25 percent of current sea-level rise is attributed to glacier melt.
Even if all fossil fuel use stopped today, the study finds that 39 percent of glacier mass loss is already locked in -- enough to raise sea levels by at least 113 millimeters.
One key finding of the study is that some glaciers are far more vulnerable than others -- and the global average obscures drastic regional losses.
Glaciers in the European Alps, the Rockies of the U.S. and Canada, and Iceland are expected to lose nearly all their ice at 2C of warming -- the fallback goal of the Paris accord.
In the central and eastern Himalayas, whose rivers support hundreds of millions of people, only 25 percent of glacier ice would remain at 2C.
By contrast, the west of the range may retain 60 percent of its ice at the same temperature thanks to its wide range of elevations, which allows some glaciers to persist at colder, higher altitudes, said Shuster.
Glacier loss is already affecting communities.
In a related commentary in Science, Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer of Rice University describe how the retreat of Oregon's Glisan Glacier has imperiled orchards, fisheries, and the cultural heritage of the Indigenous Quinault people.
"Unfortunately we'll lose a lot, but with ambitious targets we can still save many of these glaciers -- which are not only beautiful, but vital for water supply, sea-level regulation, tourism, hydroelectricity, spiritual values, ecology, and more," said Zekollari.
© 2025 AFP
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Japan Today
2 days ago
- Japan Today
Artists, scientists breathe life into prehistoric woman
By Stephanie Hamel and Kate Gillam With her clear blue eyes and slightly nervous gaze, the reconstructed bust of Mos'anne -- a woman who lived around 10,500 years ago -- is uncannily lifelike. Reborn via a close partnership between science and art, Mos'anne's bust was created at Belgium's Ghent University as part of a project to explore how the region's last hunter-gatherers lived during the Mesolithic era. "Part of the project is also understanding the genetics of these people, figuring out their kinship and so on, and to be able to really translate the science that we do to a wider audience," the project's lead researcher, Isabelle de Groote, told AFP. Scientists chose the skull of Mos'anne -- named by public vote in reference to Belgium's Meuse Valley -- for reconstruction, as it was exceptionally well-preserved. The bones held a large amount of preserved DNA, making it possible to reconstruct the woman -- aged between 35 and 60 at her death -- with remarkable realism. "We also know that in the Mesolithic times, she is genetically part of the Western hunter-gatherer group," said de Groote. Using genetic testing, researchers were able to determine the Mesolithic woman's skin and eye colour. "This group is known for having very dark skin and blue eyes, a bit like Cheddar Man in Britain," she said, referring to the man who lived in Britain around 10,000 years ago, whose skeleton was discovered in 1903. Mos'anne's DNA revealed valuable clues about her appearance but it was the unique skills of Dutch "paleo-artists" Alfons and Adrie Kennis that brought her back to life. After receiving guidance from the researchers -- including instructions to use ochre pigment on Mos'anne's headband -- the twins began their work, from moulding the skull to the final decorative feather, meticulously sculpting each facial muscle in clay. "The biggest part of the reconstruction is forming a character," Alfons Kennis said from their Darwin-esque studio in Arnhem. "You can make a forensic reconstruction... use the data, apply the muscles, apply the skin, but you get no character," Kennis said of their artistic process. The Kennis brothers -- whose surname means "knowledge" in Dutch -- take about six months to complete a reconstruction. They gained global recognition in the 2000s, their work exhibited in museums worldwide and featured in specialist publications. The twins, fascinated by evolution and visual art since childhood, draw inspiration from archived anthropological images of early encounters between isolated populations and researchers. "At the first meeting, there's nervousness, shyness. People are laughing, maybe out of nerves," said Kennis. "When a prehistoric ancestor meets you for the first time, you see these mixed emotions... It's these emotions that we want to show." Much about Mos'anne remains unknown. In Ghent, researchers are still analysing her to find out what she would eat. With her headband dotted with duck feathers, golden skin, and pierced animal teeth adorning her ears and necklace, the prehistoric woman seems closer to us than ever. "It was always my wish to be able to make it more tangible in a way," De Groote said. © 2025 AFP
Japan Today
2 days ago
- Japan Today
Walking 7,000 steps a day a huge boost to health: research
Step up: Walking even just a little more every day could have big health benefits People who walk 7,000 steps a day have a dramatically lower risk of a broad range of serious health problems, the largest review of the evidence yet said. The most widely promoted target for people tracking their number of steps is 10,000 -- but that figure reportedly originally came from a 1960s marketing campaign for a Japanese pedometer. To find a more scientific target, an international team of researchers sifted through 57 previous studies that covered 160,000 people. The results published in the Lancet Public Health journal found that walking 7,000 steps a day nearly halved people's risk of early death from all causes, compared to 2,000 steps. The study also looked into health problems not previously covered by research into step counts. Walking 7,000 steps a day was linked to people's risk of dementia falling by 38 percent, depression dropping 22 percent and diabetes decreasing 14 percent. It was also associated with lower rates of cancer and falls, though the researchers warned this was based on less evidence. "You don't need to hit 10,000 steps a day to get major health benefits," Paddy Dempsey, a study co-author and medical researcher at Cambridge University, told AFP. "The biggest gains happen before 7,000 steps, and then benefits tend to level off," he said. While people's speeds vary widely, 7,000 steps adds up to roughly an hour of walking throughout the day. Dempsey emphasised that people already managing 10,000 or more steps should keep it up. But he had a message for people who might find 7,000 steps daunting: "don't be discouraged". "If you're only getting 2,000–3,000 steps a day, aim to add an extra 1,000 steps. That's just 10–15 minutes of light walking spread across the day," he said. Andrew Scott, a researcher at the University of Portsmouth not involved in the study, said that "it demonstrates that overall more is always better". "People should not focus too much on the numbers, particularly on days where activity is limited," he added. The World Health Organization recommends at least 150 minutes of moderate to intense physical activity a week. Nearly a third of people worldwide do not reach this target, according to the WHO. © 2025 AFP
Japan Times
5 days ago
- Japan Times
‘Unprecedented' ocean heat waves in 2023 suggest climate tipping point
The world's oceans experienced a staggering amount of warming in 2023, as vast marine heat waves affected 96% of their surface, breaking records for intensity, longevity and scale, according to a new study. That could mark a turning point in the way the oceans behave, potentially signaling a tipping point after which average sea temperatures will be reset higher and some ecosystems may not recover, say the authors of the study, which was published Thursday in the journal Science. "The ocean going to a new normal — that controls everything,' said Zhenzhong Zeng, an Earth systems scientist at China's Southern University of Science and Technology, who led the work. "Once we destroy it, then maybe it cannot go back.' Ninety percent of the 2023 oceanic heating anomalies occurred in the North Atlantic, tropical Eastern Pacific, North Pacific and Southwest Pacific. The average length of the heat waves was 120 days — four times the average length between 1980 and 2023, according to Tianyun Dong, lead author on the paper and an Earth systems scientist at China's Eastern Institute of Technology. The North Atlantic marine heat wave, which began in 2022, stretched for 525 days. "The ocean has a long memory,' Dong said. It plays a key role regulating global temperatures by storing and gradually releasing large amounts of heat, but because it is slower to react than the atmosphere, the impact of long-term heat changes can be both delayed and enormous. The researchers used a combination of real-world measurements from the ocean, satellite data and computer modeling to determine the scope and causes of the heating. The highest temperature spike was seen in the Tropical Eastern Pacific, which was 1.63 degrees Celsius hotter than normal. While the onset of the El Nino weather phase likely contributed to that, a key finding of the paper is the extent to which different drivers played a role in marine heat waves in different locations. Other factors include increased solar radiation from reduced cloud cover; weaker winds; and changes in ocean currents — factors which can themselves be caused by global warming. Taken together, they show climate change is having an intensifying impact on the oceans. What the paper doesn't explain is why so many drivers came together in 2023, resulting in so many smashed records, said Zeng. It may be that these changes are beginning to reinforce each other in ways that are not yet understood. Identifying such feedback loops, and figuring out their mechanics, is critical to understanding future heat events, he said. In the near term, a marine heat wave can be devastating for humans who depend on the ocean for their livelihood, like fishing communities. "It can also fuel stronger hurricanes and storms along the coast,' said Yuntian Chen, a researcher in mechanics at China's Eastern Institute of Technology and one of the study's authors. And if ocean heat reaches a tipping point, some species won't recover. There are already concerns this could be the case for some of the world's largest coral reefs. That has other ramifications: The loss of coral and kelp, for example, reduces the ocean's ability to sequester carbon, which leads to more heating. The hottest year on record was 2023 — until 2024, when the Earth's average temperature reached 1.55 C above the pre-industrial average, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and when the average ocean temperatures hit a new high. This year is unlikely to break the annual record again, but is expected to come close. June 2025 was the third-warmest June in 176 years, after 2024 and 2023, according to a recent report by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The WMO tracks global temperatures based on six international datasets, including one run by NOAA, whose NCEI Coastal Water Temperature Guide was decommissioned by the U.S. government in May. Zeng's team relied on NOAA data for its work, some of which is no longer available. The cutbacks are "a disaster,' he said. "We are all living on the same planet. The climate is really changing.'
