Three takeaways for next 1000 days of Trump's tariff war
This Wednesday marks the first 100 days of President Trump's second term in office, three months of pop-up surprises. What does the next 100 days, the next 1000 days, portend?
Half the Western world's investors and analysts, including yours truly, descended on Washington last week to find out. The IMF Spring Meetings were on, and what is normally a placid and technical affair became a hot mess of a gathering as we levelled up our understanding of this new world.
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Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Australians curb their enthusiasm for US holidays
Flight Centre chief executive Graham Turner said business travel to the US was holding up, but fewer Australians were booking holidays there. 'Certainly compared to the pre-Trump era, everything that we see … is the leisure market in particular is down. There's no doubt that April and May have been down,' Turner said. 'US carriers have increased their capacity [to Australia] over the last six to 12 months, and there's no doubt they'll be suffering a bit. 'There's been cheaper airfares through sales and there will be [more] over the next few months unless things dramatically improve.' More than a million Australians visited the US last year. The country's latest official figures show 291,230 Australians visited the US from January to April, down 0.2 per cent on the same period last year. In April, Australian visitor numbers to the US grew 1 per cent year-on-year to 89,363. Meanwhile, 83,460 Americans arrived in Australia this March, making the US the second-largest source of visitors behind New Zealand. Australia's favourite destinations over the same period were New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Mitchell said young people most affected by the cost of living were choosing cheaper destinations such as Latin America or Asia, instead. He said the April slump in the Australian dollar sparked by Trump's tariff wars had 'spooked a lot of people' from booking trips to the US. 'The feedback we're getting is the US is an expensive destination to go to, with the service taxes and the tipping. And I think that word of mouth has honestly been getting around for a while now,' Mitchell said. He said even those who could afford to visit the US were cutting back on costs. 'I don't think it's stopping some people from going there, but it probably does change how they travel a bit. They might not go for 2½, three weeks; they might go for two weeks. They might not go five-star, they might go four-star or three-star,' he said. Qantas, which operates about 40 return flights a week between Australia and the US, said demand for US travel was holding up locally. Chief executive Vanessa Hudson recently said the airline was feeling optimistic about demand for the US, and 'business-purpose travel and business travel in premium cabins remains strong'. The airline said this year's sale for flights to the US had outperformed similar sales last year. Loading Michael Feller, an ex-diplomat and foreign policy adviser, said the second Trump presidency had caused enormous damage to US soft power and prestige. But he said it was difficult to trace that into consumer behaviour beyond unique cases like Canada. 'Boycotts are really tricky,' said Feller, who is now chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy, which provides advice to companies around the world. 'US products are ubiquitous. And when you consume a quintessential US product like Coke, it's manufactured and bottled in Australia. And then there are other quintessential products like iPhones, which are manufactured and assembled in China. So, it's hard to disentangle 'Brand US'.' Despite gloom over Trump's trade wars, Feller said there were two silver linings for Australia. Loading 'The Australian consumer will probably benefit from Trump's trade wars insofar as cheap Chinese goods will be dumped on our shores, leading to lower costs,' he said. 'And if Trump cracks down on international students, those students will presumably look to a country like ours to study.'
The Age
an hour ago
- The Age
Australians curb their enthusiasm for US holidays
Flight Centre chief executive Graham Turner said business travel to the US was holding up, but fewer Australians were booking holidays there. 'Certainly compared to the pre-Trump era, everything that we see … is the leisure market in particular is down. There's no doubt that April and May have been down,' Turner said. 'US carriers have increased their capacity [to Australia] over the last six to 12 months, and there's no doubt they'll be suffering a bit. 'There's been cheaper airfares through sales and there will be [more] over the next few months unless things dramatically improve.' More than a million Australians visited the US last year. The country's latest official figures show 291,230 Australians visited the US from January to April, down 0.2 per cent on the same period last year. In April, Australian visitor numbers to the US grew 1 per cent year-on-year to 89,363. Meanwhile, 83,460 Americans arrived in Australia this March, making the US the second-largest source of visitors behind New Zealand. Australia's favourite destinations over the same period were New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Mitchell said young people most affected by the cost of living were choosing cheaper destinations such as Latin America or Asia, instead. He said the April slump in the Australian dollar sparked by Trump's tariff wars had 'spooked a lot of people' from booking trips to the US. 'The feedback we're getting is the US is an expensive destination to go to, with the service taxes and the tipping. And I think that word of mouth has honestly been getting around for a while now,' Mitchell said. He said even those who could afford to visit the US were cutting back on costs. 'I don't think it's stopping some people from going there, but it probably does change how they travel a bit. They might not go for 2½, three weeks; they might go for two weeks. They might not go five-star, they might go four-star or three-star,' he said. Qantas, which operates about 40 return flights a week between Australia and the US, said demand for US travel was holding up locally. Chief executive Vanessa Hudson recently said the airline was feeling optimistic about demand for the US, and 'business-purpose travel and business travel in premium cabins remains strong'. The airline said this year's sale for flights to the US had outperformed similar sales last year. Loading Michael Feller, an ex-diplomat and foreign policy adviser, said the second Trump presidency had caused enormous damage to US soft power and prestige. But he said it was difficult to trace that into consumer behaviour beyond unique cases like Canada. 'Boycotts are really tricky,' said Feller, who is now chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy, which provides advice to companies around the world. 'US products are ubiquitous. And when you consume a quintessential US product like Coke, it's manufactured and bottled in Australia. And then there are other quintessential products like iPhones, which are manufactured and assembled in China. So, it's hard to disentangle 'Brand US'.' Despite gloom over Trump's trade wars, Feller said there were two silver linings for Australia. Loading 'The Australian consumer will probably benefit from Trump's trade wars insofar as cheap Chinese goods will be dumped on our shores, leading to lower costs,' he said. 'And if Trump cracks down on international students, those students will presumably look to a country like ours to study.'
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Let's get rid of this embarrassing King's birthday holiday
Those distilled values – whether in the American or Australian vernacular – are shorthand ways of referring to the driving force of democracy; the fight for equality. As that greater observer of democracy Alexis de Tocqueville noted, equality is the basic theme that has maintained itself through the ages, that has prevailed through the obstacles and contradictions of Western intellectual history. Loading Equality doesn't mean that some people don't hold power or status. What it does mean is that power and status are earned – and that they can be taken away and exercised by someone else. No matter what King Charles does, his reign will endure until he dies or abdicates, at which time it will be immediately embodied in another family member. This is incontestable, inherited superiority – the opposite of equality. Equality doesn't mean sameness either – in fact, it means the freedom to be different. Perhaps the growing supremacy of sport in Australian culture, and all that goes with it, is the reason behind Australia's lack of interest in the source of our democratic freedoms. We don't do difference very well any more. We were far more eccentric in the past. We shy away from discussions about politics or ideas, content with the distraction of betting on who kicks the next goal. Patrick White might have been right when he predicted that ' sport could sink us '. Loading The inclination to run away from political discussion is passed off as endearing Aussie nonchalance – 'she'll be right, mate'. But it's not admirable – it's a sign of privilege and immaturity. Every Australian should be able to explain what it means to be a democratic country, and how it aligns with our freedoms, including the freedom to celebrate the natural beauty, the clear skies and clean waters of our land. Every Australian should recognise their freedom to observe, judge and criticise their nation – a marker of democracy. This includes a vigorous questioning of today's celebration, and the right to wonder what the hell it means. If our right to criticise were taken from us, we would certainly feel its loss. But would we even be able to articulate what went wrong? As in the US, the greatest threat to our political freedoms may be indifference and lack of interest. All new Australians are informed of what citizenship means; of the freedom that it bestows. Perhaps it will be these Australians – many from less democratic nations and more attuned to what democracy looks like – who will question the incongruity of a loudly egalitarian nation participating (however feebly) in the birthday party of an unelected figurehead – an elderly King on the other side of the world. Let's hope a new and inquisitive generation of Australians will reignite the flame of republicanism. Let's hope sometime soon we'll give the King his final birthday greetings, and tell him, finally, belatedly, to nick off.
