NHC is updating its cone graphic for the 2025 hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center is introducing a slate of updates ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season kickoff on June 1.
Forecasters work to improve their forecasting and warning products every year. The updates for the 2025 hurricane season include a depiction of inland tropical storms and hurricane alerts in effect on its 'cone' graphic, the debut of a national rip current risk map for active tropical storms and earlier warnings for potential storms.
Here's a breakdown of the NHC's new changes for hurricane season.
The NHC says it will continue using its experimental cone graphic, which is frequently referred to as the cone of uncertainty. The graphic is meant to track the probable path of a tropical cyclone's center.
The cone is frequently misunderstood, which is one reason the NHC consistently updates the product. Here are this year's changes.
New symbols: The cone of uncertainty legend will now contain symbology for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm are in effect at the same time, marked by diagonal pink and blue lines.
Narrower cone of uncertainty: The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone will be about 3-5% smaller compared to last year.
The cone graphic is meant to inform people about the center of a hurricane's probable track. It doesn't reflect the size of the storm, nor does it indicate the full area of its impact.
The cone's size is based on how accurate or inaccurate the NHC's forecasts have been over the past five years. The center of the storm tends to stay within the cone for roughly two out of every three forecasts, according to the NHC.
It shouldn't be used to determine your storm risk or whether you should evacuate. Instead, you should use it to determine where the center of the storm is likely to go and to see what watches and warnings are in effect.
Starting on May 15, the National Weather Service (NWS) will implement some significant changes to its Potential Tropical Cyclone advisory (PTC) system.
Extended forecast window: The National Hurricane Center will be able to issue PTC advisories up to 72 hours before anticipated impacts, which is up from the previous 48-hour window.
Relaxed warning criteria: The change eliminates the previous requirement that advisories could only be issued for PTCs that required land-based watches or warnings.
Due to an increase in surf and rip current fatalities in the United States, the NHC will provide current risk information from distant hurricanes and provide a national rip current risk map.
Rip current risk map: To highlight the risk of dangerous conditions, NHC will provide rip current risk information from local National Weather Service and Weather Force Cast Offices in the form of a map.
Current day, next day and a composite showing the highest risk over both days will be available for areas along the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S in one page.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: National Hurricane Center is updating its 'cone' graphic
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