Top A-level grades may remain higher this year than pre-pandemic levels
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at the University of Buckingham, has raised concerns that grade inflation 'may be creeping back in again'.
Last year, more than a quarter (27.8%) of UK A-level entries were awarded an A or A* grade, up from 27.2% in 2023.
In a report, published ahead of A-level results day, Prof Smithers said he believes this year's results 'are likely to be close to what they were in 2024'.
It was the highest proportion of entries scoring top grades outside the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22.
In 2019 – the last year that summer exams were taken before the pandemic – 25.4% of entries were awarded A or A* grades.
The Covid-19 pandemic led to an increase in top A-level and GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
Ahead of A-level results day on Thursday next week, Prof Smithers said the grade pattern in 2024 'could be the start of a new normal'.
He added that the proportion of UK A-level entries awarded A or A* grades – of between 27% and 28% – could be the 'new norm' for results.
Figures covering A-level entries from students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on Thursday.
Ofqual brought A-level grading standards back in line with pre-Covid levels in England in 2023, and exam regulators in Wales and Northern Ireland aimed to return to pre-pandemic grading last summer.
Prof Smithers said A-level grades should have been 'back to normal' last year, but he added that they rose to a level higher than pre-Covid years.
He added: 'There has to be the suspicion that the inflation which bedevilled A-level grades in the days before the regulator, Ofqual, may be creeping back in again.'
In his report, Prof Smithers also suggested that 'girls will do better than boys' once again at the top A-level grades.
Last year, the proportion of girls' A-level entries awarded A or higher was 28.0%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than the equivalent figure for boys' entries (27.6%).
But the proportion of boys' entries awarded A* was 9.5% – which was 0.4 percentage points higher than girls (9.1%).
Prof Smithers has suggested that the success for boys at A* will 'continue to be overshadowed in 2025 by the longstanding superior results of girls overall'.
He said: 'Sadly, the under-performance of boys is no more likely than in previous years to receive the attention it deserves.
'They and the country would benefit considerably if ways could be found of ensuring that the potential of many boys is not wasted.'
Reflecting on provisional exam entries data for England, Prof Smithers said a decline in the social sciences this summer 'could be an early sign that they have been rumbled' in promising more than they deliver.
A-level entries for psychology and sociology are down, but entries for mathematics, physics and chemistry are up, according to provisional figures from Ofqual in June.
Prof Smithers said: 'The swing towards maths and the physical sciences could be a response to the former government's promotion of them.'
He added: 'I wonder if there is growing recognition that these social sciences promise more than they deliver, whereas the quantitative may be hard but they are meaningful.'
A Department for Education spokesperson said: 'These claims are completely false.
'It is vital that qualifications are rigorous, and we are confident in Ofqual's work, as the independent regulator, to manage the risk of grade inflation and ensure this is not impacting standards.
'This suggestion demonstrates a lack of understanding of Ofqual's role and the work they do every year to ensure fairness, with this year being no different.'
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