Depopulation Complicates Japan's Rice Policy; Needs of Farmers, Consumers Have Diverged Over Years

Yomiuri Shimbun

18-07-2025

The 'Rice Crisis of the Reiwa Era' is shaking Japanese society to its core due to skyrocketing rice prices.
With the House of Councillors election scheduled for July 20, rice policy has become one of the main issues. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has instructed relevant ministers to promote policies that stabilize rice prices and enable producers to increase production with confidence.
Shinjiro Koizumi, appointed agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister in May, has been implementing new policies to lower rice prices, including releasing rice reserves through discretionary contracts.
The reason for the rice crisis is that rice is not just a staple food for the Japanese people, but a deeply rooted part of their history, society, culture and spirituality.
Tadayo Watabe, a former Kyoto University professor who died last year at the age of 100, famously described the Japanese as 'people with a deep desire to eat rice every day.'
Rice cultivation in Japan began approximately 3,000 years ago.
It was only in the 1960s that Japanese people were able to eat rice daily without worrying about shortages – just about 60 years ago.
The importance of rice in Japan is illustrated by a scene in the movie 'Seven Samurai.'
Hundreds of years ago, farmers suffering from bandit raids endure a diet of bitter grains so they can save rice to give to the samurai Kambei (Takashi Shimura), whom they ask to defend their village. Resolving to do so, Kambei holds up a bowl of white rice and declares, 'I will not waste your offering of rice.'
These words resonate deeply in the Japanese heart, conveying the value of rice and the weight of Kambei's resolve.
Eating one's fill of rice is a theme that appears in numerous works, including novels, movies, and period dramas.
Rice is not merely a food.
During the Edo period, people used rice as a form of currency, and they paid taxes with rice.
Even today, rice farming cooperatives and rural communities remain deeply rooted throughout Japan, forming the foundation of Japanese society. Rice paddies are a distinctive feature of Japan's landscape throughout the country.
Rice is a food in which the nation is nearly 100% self-sufficient.
In trade liberalization negotiations, the Japanese government has consistently designated rice as a 'sacred domain.'
However, Japan is now at a critical turning point in its rice policy.
Following World War II, the nation's rice policy shifted from addressing rice shortages to addressing rice surpluses, and the production adjustment policy was introduced. This policy effectively led to significant reductions in rice paddy acreage beginning in 1971, thereby suppressing excessive price declines and protecting rice farmers nationwide.
The government officially ended the acreage reduction policy in 2018, but to stabilize farmers' livelihoods, it has provided incentives to encourage farmers to shift to other crops, effectively maintaining the policy.
Japan produced approximately 14 million tons of rice annually during its peak in the 1960s, but current rice production as a staple food has decreased to around 7 million tons per year.
The acreage reduction policy has contributed to the stability of local communities.
However, since last summer, rice prices have surged to more than double the level of the previous year, sparking widespread frustration. The government's lack of consideration for the consumer's perspective led to a delayed response.
With global warming progressing, the risk of rice crop failures is also increasing.
The instability of the international situation has heightened the importance of food security.
Continuing the rigid rice production adjustment policy is making it challenging to stabilize rice prices.
How should rice policy be reformed? Let's examine the actual conditions of farmers.
The production cost of rice decreases as the scale of production increases. In California, a major U.S. rice-producing region, the average farm is about 160 hectares, while in Japan it is 2 hectares.
Mountainous regions that cover most of Japan's land area are home to only about 10% of the national population, but these regions account for about 40% of Japan's farmers, farmland and agricultural production value. The mountainous terrain is a barrier to large-scale farming, which makes enhancing international competitiveness a significant challenge.
A report by Kimio Inagaki, a fellow at the Mitsubishi Research Institute, attempts a detailed analysis of Japanese farmers.
Based on the 2020 agricultural census, there are approximately 1.07 million farming business entities in Japan, with 70% of them cultivating rice. Large-scale farms, defined as those with 20 hectares or more, account for only 3% of the total number of farms, yet they occupy 38% of the farmland.
On the other hand, 84% of farmers work on farms of less than 3 hectares, cultivating 30% of the total farmland. This includes the 23% of farmers who work on small-scale farms of less than 0.5 hectares.
There are significant disparities in management capabilities among farmers.
Inagaki argues for two distinct policy approaches. Small-scale farmers operating in hilly, mountainous areas that are not plains with good conditions for growing rice should be supported from the perspective of social security, while separate policies should be aimed at improving the international competitiveness of rice farming in Japan.
The rice production reduction policy has enabled large-scale farmers and small-scale farmers to coexist by maintaining rice prices.
The government is reviewing its rice production reduction policy while considering ideas to promote large-scale farming and increased exports, strengthen the production base, and lower prices.
If the Japanese government implements this policy, it will be challenging for small-scale farmers in mountainous areas to sustain themselves. In that case, how much income compensation should the government provide to farmers to support their businesses?
This issue is common to many of the challenges facing Japan, which is experiencing a declining population.
The government predicts that Japan's population will decrease from the current 120 million to 87 million by 2070. In a modern capitalist society, Japan is setting a precedent for population decline.
People are leaving depopulated areas in droves, making it difficult to maintain infrastructure such as roads and sewer systems. Railways are having to discontinue the operation of local lines.
However, Japan is not adopting policies that would abandon such depopulated areas; instead, it is striving to maintain them as much as possible. Due to the Japanese national character, which favors inclusive policies, there is resistance to implementing harsh policies that abandon rural areas. People throughout Japan believe that rice is an integral part of their daily lives. Rural regions have rich natural landscapes and a tradition of strong local communities.
Agriculture is also facing challenges related to a declining birthrate and an aging population.
The number of people whose primary occupation is in the agriculture industry has halved over the past 25 years, dropping to about 1.1 million. Their average age is 69. The number is projected to plummet to 300,000 in 20 years.
In an era of declining population, how much should Japan as a whole bear the cost of supporting rice production by small-scale farmers in mountainous and rural areas?
Ultimately, the question of how much of the current rice production system, including that in mountainous and rural areas, can be maintained is linked to the issues of what to do about Japan's future, considering its declining population.
There are no easy answers, but it is a serious issue that everyone needs to consider.
Political Pulse appears every Saturday.
Akihiro Okada
Akihiro Okada is a vice chairman of the editorial board for The Yomiuri Shimbun.