The alarming reasons why Ace Bailey's NBA draft stock is plummeting

USA Today

4 hours ago

The alarming reasons why Ace Bailey's NBA draft stock is plummeting
Rutgers freshman forward Ace Bailey was long considered one of the top prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft. But things are not trending his direction.
Bailey averaged 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists with 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steal per game. Those are exciting numbers, especially considering he attempted 4.5 shots per game from beyond the arc and was listed by the school at 6-foot-10.
However, during the 2025 NBA Draft Combine, he had disappointing physical measurements standing just above 6-foot-7 barefoot. None of his athletic testing seemed to jump off the page for evaluators, either.
As noted by league insider Jake Fischer, for example, Bailey is "no longer seen as the top-three lock" in the 2025 NBA Draft.
More: How tall is Ace Bailey? Here are his measurements from the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
Bailey was ranked No. 3 overall in our first consensus mock draft, but over the past few days, the reports are not looking great. A
ccording to Jeff Goofman from The Field of 68, Bailey's camp has "rubbed a lot of people the wrong way" during the pre-draft process.
Here is Jonathan Givony discussing why Bailey is no longer projected at No. 3 overall to the 76ers, now giving the nod to V.J. Edgecombe from Baylor instead (via ESPN):
"[Edgecombe] appears to be "the leader in the clubhouse" currently, with Bailey losing momentum after refusing to visit, initially unsatisfied with his search for a proven pathway to development. However, Bailey is scheduled to work out in Philadelphia at the end of this week, and we'll see if he's able to sway the tides in his favor.
The feedback from his interviews at the draft combine in Chicago was not all that positive, with some teams expressing concern about his lack of preparation and focus. NBA executives say Bailey has been polarizing in internal front office conversations because of questions about his feel for the game and lack of polish, creating a wider draft range than initially anticipated."
Givony elaborated later about why he now has Bailey falling all the way to No. 6 overall:
"Bailey's predraft workout strategy has perplexed some observers, as he has yet to conduct a single known workout to date, having declined invitations from several teams within his draft range. Sources say Bailey's camp has informed interested teams that they believe he is a top-3 player in the draft, but also seeks a clear pathway to stardom, perhaps feeling comfortable that a team will trade up to get him at Nos. 3 or 4, should he drop.
Some teams question whether Bailey has received assurances of being selected by a team currently outside the top five, to a situation deemed more advantageous from a geographic and playing time perspective."
Jonathan Wasserman, another draft insider, also had Bailey projected at No. 6 overall in his latest mock draft.
Here is what Wasserman said about why he had him slated a bit lower as well (via Bleacher Report):
"With the buzz around Jeremiah Fears ultra positive, Ace Bailey could slip a few spots to No. 6. The Washington Wizards could get a surprise opportunity to draft a special shotmaker who won't turn 19 until August.
His shot selection and answers to certain questions at the NBA combine have raised some questions."
Kevin O'Connor from Yahoo speculated that "there is chance" Bailey could fall all the way to No. 7 overall to the New Orleans Pelicans, who reportedly have some interest in the former Rutgers standout.
Rafael Barlowe, another draft insider, tried to unravel why this is happening.
Here is what he wrote (via NBA Big Board):
"Bailey is one of the more divisive names in this draft, but not because of talent. There's no debate there. Bailey is a gifted shot-maker and when he's on—capable of putting up some ridiculously efficient scoring outbursts. But he'll also mix in those nights with some ice-cold shooting performances and head-scratching shot selection. The tools are there, no question, but consistency has been the big issue that keeps resurfacing.
The concerns are less about talent and more centered on his feel for the game and overall decision-making. One scout even mentioned the optics of two projected top-three picks—Bailey and Dylan Harper—failing to win consistently together at Rutgers. And honestly, that's a fair point.
Still, from a pure talent standpoint, Bailey should not fall past Charlotte at No. 4. But I've been hearing for months that a drop was possible. If Charlotte passes on him, and Utah at No. 5 does the same, then things could get a little chaotic."
As noted by Barlowe, things could indeed get "chaotic" for Bailey on the night of the draft.
Looks like the public today is catching up to the front office split league wide that I've been trying to explain for literally months now on Ace Bailey.
This has absolutely been a thing for a long while. — Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) June 17, 2025
As noted by Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, however, none of these concerns are particularly new.
Beyond everything discussed above, some of the stats are plainly concerning. Bailey finished the season with a relatively poor box plus-minus, per Bart Torvik, scoring a 3.5 BPM.
The only players to finish with a BPM below 4.0 while in college who were still picked in top-10 in the NBA Draft: Ziaire Williams, Jaylen Brown, Cody Williams, Cam Reddish, and Austin Rivers. Brown is the only player from that group to have had a successful pro career, but perhaps Bailey can change the trajectory and have a similar impact as the Boston Celtics star in the NBA.