The inside story of TV networks' 2025 NFL season scheduling: Flexing star QBs and huge ratings

New York Times

15-05-2025

What do Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have in common? Well, outside of bionic right arms and skyrocketing net wealth, they all ply their trade in the NFL's AFC. This fact is important when it comes to NFL TV scheduling for the league's media partners, revealed in full on Wednesday night.
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Quarterbacks, as you well know, are the engine that sells the NFL, and star quarterbacks are what the NFL's media partners desire most when it comes to the most prized inventory in all of American content — live pro football games.
Mike Mulvihill, the head of insights and analytics for Fox Sports and the person who runs point for his network on the NFL schedule, is charged with identifying what inventory will produce the best possible viewership for his network. All of the networks have a running dialogue with the league throughout the year when it comes to scheduling, and Mulvihill said Fox changed its thinking this year when it came to what it desired. And what it desired was something interesting, given that Fox's deal with the NFL largely revolves around NFC games:
More AFC inventory.
'We talked a lot with the league about the idea that 'cross-flex,' which is the policy by which NFC games can go to CBS and AFC games can go to Fox, needed to be a little bit more balanced,' Mulvihill said. 'That cross-flex mechanism was created to help balance the (media) packages, and in the years since then, the AFC has become significantly better than it was when that protocol was agreed upon. They (other outlets) were getting better NFC games than we were getting back from the AFC side. It just became a little bit imbalanced.'
The league heeded Fox's ask for 2025. The network will air a massive Week 14 AFC game between Allen's Bills and Burrow's Bengals at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. They also got significant NFC versus AFC games featuring the Eagles at Chiefs in Week 2 and the Eagles at Bills in Week 17.
'These games are at the highest level,' Mulvihill said. 'We feel great about the way we were treated in cross-flex.'
The other thing Fox asked for in the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday window was more diversity among the teams. Fox has long relied on the Cowboys in this late-afternoon window (the most-watched time slot on television), and this year Fox's schedule leans into more teams in the late afternoon.
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'Of our 4:25 p.m. games, only three of them are Cowboys games,' Mulvihill said. 'In other years, we've gone looking for five or six Dallas games at 4:25. What we wanted for this year was more AFC, more Philly, but also more Detroit and a little more Washington to try to capitalize on the Jayden Daniels story. I think we have a better mix of teams than we've had in the past. Sometimes we've heard exasperation from fans that the Fox 4:25 game is always the Cowboys. It's still gonna be the Cowboys sometimes this year, but you'll see a little bit more variety in terms of top teams in our 4:25 window.'
Some additional media-centric NFL schedule release reporting and thoughts:
1. The NFL made a strategic decision to schedule the Chiefs versus the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. The game will air at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and stream live on Paramount+. The thinking, based on talking to a number of people at different networks, is that the NFL thinks the game can set a record for the most-viewed NFL regular-season game in history. The record was set on Thanksgiving Day in 2022 when 42.1 million watched the Cowboys beat the Giants on Fox.
The viewership numbers for the NFL (and all sports) will get a boost from Nielsen's Big Data + Panel Technology, which offers better data for out-of-home viewership. Given this, I think Chiefs-Cowboys has an outside shot at reaching 50 million viewers if it's close in the final quarter. Last year's average viewership across all three Thanksgiving games — Bears-Lions, Giants-Cowboys and Dolphins-Packers — was 34.2 million viewers, the highest Thanksgiving Day average on record (records date back to 1988). The late-afternoon game on Fox between the Giants and Cowboys (who had six combined wins at the time) averaged 38.8 million viewers, the fourth-most-watched Thanksgiving Day game on record.
CBS, like all partners, has long worked with the NFL to drive viewership and got gifted the league's best viewership game (on paper) during the regular season. The only question is how high the viewership number will be.
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'K.C. and Dallas on Thanksgiving, the league's two biggest brands and viewership drivers, in the annual most-viewed time slot,' CBS Sports president David Berson said, sounding like a man who just won the lottery.
2. Speaking of Thanksgiving, put me down for NBC setting a Thanksgiving viewership record on its network. NBC got a great prime-time game in Ravens-Bengals, and American culture has changed where a ton of people opt to shop online as opposed to shopping in-person on Thanksgiving night. That means more viewership. (NBC's best Thanksgiving NFL viewership came in 2015 for the Bears-Packers, which drew 27.8 million viewers.) Fox also has a quality matchup with Packers at Lions to start the day.
3. The NFL has really front-loaded its schedule the last two seasons to get off to a big viewership start. You see that in the games they chose for opening week including this year's Kickoff game (Cowboys at Eagles on Thursday, Sept. 4) on NBC. Last year's 27-20 victory by the Chiefs over the Ravens averaged 28.9 million viewers on NBC and Peacock. The game topped viewership for the 2023 season opener (27.5 million for Detroit Lions-Chiefs) by five percent.
'They are really trying to get all the partners off to really positive start,' Mulvihill said. 'We've got the Super Bowl rematch in Week 2. Last year we had it in Week 7. They're using a Dallas-Philly game as the season opener. They're using the Chiefs for the YouTube game on the first Friday. The Sunday night opener (on NBC) is Baltimore-Buffalo. That's using a lot top games very early. I think what they're doing is they're taking advantage of the fact that there are some changes in the Nielsen ratings this year that are going to give everybody a little bit of a lift. By Week 2 or 3, we should all be out there telling really positive stories.'
4. CBS has ridden the Chiefs and Bills to viewership highs over the past couple of years, and both teams will play on CBS at least nine times in 2025 (Week 18 is a TBD for all networks), including a Week 9 matchup in Buffalo against each other. Kansas City will appear in CBS's 4:25 p.m. ET window at least three times, and will play at least five games on CBS in the second half of the season. The Bills will also play in up to nine games on CBS this season, more than any other network. Last year's AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Chiefs averaged nearly 58 million viewers.
'We love being 'the home of the AFC,' and all the young superstar quarterbacks,' Berson said. 'Patrick, Josh, Lamar, Joe, we could go on and on. They're the faces of the league. They define this generation for the NFL. Fans can't get enough of them and we're thrilled to showcase these stars week in and week out.'
5. One of ESPN's goals this season was to front load its schedule with its doubleheader weeks. ESPN has 11 primetime games scheduled from Week 1 to Week 7. 'The thought is the earlier we can play them, the more meaning the games would have,' ESPN VP of Programming Tim Reed said. 'Last year, as in previous years, we'd have one of those doubleheaders late in the year and it's always a bit of a roll on the dice whether teams are still competitive in Week 15 and beyond. One of the things we were able to accomplish this year is we have all those games happening prior to Week Eight. That's going to be a nice improvement and should hopefully help us from an overall audience perspective.'
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6. On this note: Of the four Monday nights where ESPN/ABC has two games, ESPN and the NFL adjusted the game time for two of those weeks so they come off as true doubleheaders. The Bucs-Texans kick off in Week 2 at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC, followed by the Chargers-Raiders at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN. The same setup works in Week 7 for Bucs-Lions (7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC) and Texans-Seahawks (10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+). ESPN/ABC has a very strong schedule from Week 8 through Week 11 schedule, including the Commanders traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Chiefs, the Cowboys twice and a potentially big viewership game between Philadelphia and Green Bay at Lambeau Field.
7. The YouTube exclusive game on on Sept. 5 — the Chiefs and Chiefs in São Paulo on a Friday night — is the first NFL game to be exclusively streamed live and for free in its entirety on YouTube and YouTube TV. (The game will be available on free, over-the-air broadcast television in the local markets of the teams.) This is significant, given it continues to be a sign that Google's YouTube is going to a player when the NFL no doubt opts out of its current media deals in 2029. YouTube and YouTube TV are already the home of NFL Sunday Ticket.
'It's fitting that in 2025 when sports dominates TV and advertising, and YouTube is the global powerhouse in both online viewing and ads, the NFL would deliver its first free streaming international game to YouTube,' John Kosner, president of Kosner Media, and Ed Desser, president of Desser Media, said in an email. 'Not only will YouTube stream the game, but also it's likely it will diversify the offering with popular creators, such as Casimiro (Cazé) whose live streaming commentary on Brazilian football matches often exceeds (engagement numbers for) linear broadcasts. This is a view of the future where major sporting events can achieve practically ubiquitous distribution and true interactivity. Closer to home, it's a great promo for YouTube's third season of NFL Sunday Ticket debuting 48 hours later.'
8. Black Friday is a signifiant date for Amazon Prime Video, given the shopping connection, and the streamer did well to land the Bears-Eagles in Philadelphia for the Black Friday game. Worth noting is Amazon Prime Video will air the NBA this upcoming season so think about this for Black Friday: The streamer will go from NFL coverage to an NBA doubleheader. All told, that will probably be somewhere around 12 straight live hours of sports streaming.
'This Black Friday is the second straight season the Super Bowl champs will host the game,' Jeff Kaiser, Head of Sports Programming, Prime Video, said. 'It will be an amazing atmosphere in Philadelphia, and there's a lot of optimism surrounding the Bears with the new head coach and a revamped offensive line. These are NFC big market teams and we are really pleased that that ended up being the matchup.'
9. Two Amazon Prime Video games to pay attention to as far as potential viewership pops: The Thursday Night Football opener in Week 2 features Washington and Green Bay (Sept. 11) while Week 14 has Cowboys-Lions (Dec. 4). If the Cowboys don't crash out again and the Lions are what people anticipate this season, Amazon is looking at a monster viewership number for this game. 'Big picture, we think we have a really strong schedule, deep and well balanced,' Kaiser said.
10. NBC Sports executives have always pushed for a strong start for its Sunday Night Football package, and that was the same for this season.
'We are lucky to have the Kickoff Game and it is seemingly getting better every year,' NBC Sports president Rick Cordella said about his network's Cowboys-Eagles game to start the season on Sept. 4. 'We start with Dallas-Philly and then come right back with Baltimore-Buffalo. That's a helluva start to the season.'
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Cordella said the network wanted a notable matchup on Ryder Cup Weekend (Sept 26-28) to create a super sports weekend of viewing, and NBC got that with with Green Bay-Dallas on the night of Sept. 28. NBC will also benefit from having a game in San Francisco during the regular season (Week 7 vs. Atlanta) so its operations team can scout the facility for the Super Bowl, which it will air in February 2026. NBC has the Chiefs and Cowboys three times and the Eagles, Packers, Bills, Lions, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings and Commanders twice.
11. The NFL has been clear about developing a Sunday morning international window to create a new media-rights package. (Sports Business Journal's Ben Fischer has done some invaluable reporting on the league's lust to add new markets abroad.) There are so many media entities interested in NFL game inventory, especially the streamers with endless cash, that the NFL would easily get a rights deal. But the more interesting question is what are you getting for the international games?
This year's International Game schedule is pretty blah outside of the beautiful locales — Dublin, London, Berlin, Madrid. The best matchup (on paper) is probably the Nov. 16 in Madrid between the Dolphins and Commanders. The game will be played at the Bernabéu, home of Real Madrid, in the league's first-ever regular season game in Spain. The Steelers-Vikings game at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland's first-ever regular season NFL game, has potential if the Steelers find a quarterback. Otherwise, meh. If I was a legacy player, I'd stay away. For someone such as Google or Netflix, it makes more sense given your global audience.
12. Mulvihill said he's not worried about Fox's Week 1 schedule, which is a single-header week this year instead of the traditional doubleheader the network gets. 'I think it's hard to find a really top quality 4:25 game for Week 1,' Mulvihill said. 'We felt like we had a better chance of getting something special in Week 2. I think CBS has actually had good success having their first doubleheader be in Week 2 the last couple years, so we asked to move off Week 1 as the doubleheader. It's fine for a single-header, and we're coming back with our first really special game of the year (Philadelphia at Kansas City).'
13. The NFL once again has scheduled games against the opening round of the College Football Playoff as the Eagles-Commanders and Packers-Bears are scheduled for Dec. 20. Last year, for the two Saturday afternoon college games that aired on TNT Sports opposite the NFL, Clemson-Texas averaged 8.90 million viewers and SMU-Penn State 6.60 million viewers. While these were obviously significant numbers for TNT Sports and college football games on cable, it's terrible for sports fans who have to make a decision between two high profile events to watch. Does the NFL care? They do not. They want it all. Just ask the NBA about Christmas.
14. Netflix landed two potentially interesting Christmas Day games with Cowboys-Commanders, followed by Lions-Vikings. CBS Sports will produce the games, with NFL Media producing the pre-game, post-game and halftime studio programming. Last year's Ravens-Texans game averaged 24.3 million viewers while the Chiefs-Steelers game drew 24.1 million viewers across Netflix and local CBS stations in the participating markets. (Netflix said those numbers increased to 30.0 million and 31.3 million when the global audience was added.) Those games were down five million viewers in the U.S. from the 2023 Christmas Day games (29.5 million for Raiders-Chiefs on CBS and 29 million viewers for Giants-Eagles on CBS).
15. Here's how quickly a team can fall from league designation as a national team. The Jets are scheduled for two primetime games this season and have 13 games kicking off at 1 p.m. In 2023, with the networks looking to ride the Aaron Rodgers train, the Jets schedule at the beginning of the year included two Sunday night games, two Monday night games, one Thursday night game and the league's first-ever Black Friday game.
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16. ESPN's 'Monday Night Football' alternative 'ManningCast' with Peyton and Eli Manning will be part 0f 12 games in 2025, including the MNF opener. ESPN said the remaining ManningCast schedule will be announced before the start of the season.
17. Peacock will stream an exclusive game in prime time in Week 17 (Dec. 27). The Saturday night matchup is TBD at the moment, but expect a game with playoff implications.
'I think the best thing about Week 17 is you're in the playoff hunt and those games matter,' Cordella said. 'People are inside so the HUT (Households Using Televisons) levels are higher. With the TBD pool that we're going to pull from, we are going to get a game that really matters to the playoffs. It could be a game that on TV would do 25 million viewers or more, and we're gonna have that on Peacock.'