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BBC News
a few seconds ago
- BBC News
All three promoted clubs to go down? The stats around relegation
There's a pattern emerging in the Premier the past two seasons the three teams that have come up from the Championship have gone straight back newly-promoted Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland buck the trend this term?BBC Sport looks into the stats surrounding relegation and rates each of the new boys' chances. How bad were the last six promoted teams, really? Points-wise, very bad. Since 1996-97, when three promoted sides started playing in a 38-game Premier League season they have averaged 113 points between 2023-24, Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United set a record-low tally when they stumbled to a collective 66 last season, promoted sides Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton were even worse, taking a measly 59 points. Two years ago, fans could have confidently predicted that at least one of the trio of newly-promoted teams would avoid relegation the following the past two campaigns, the only other Premier League season where all three promoted clubs went straight back down was in 1997-98, when Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace all faced the then, Bolton managed 40 points and only went down on goal there have been four occasions where all three promoted teams survived. The last time was just three years ago, when Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest all beat the drop. How many points do you need to avoid relegation in the Premier League? For as long as there's been relegation, supporters have been trying to predict the minimum number of points needed to avoid what should Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland and others be aiming for? Traditionally, 40 points are said to be enough for Premier League survival. That's because only three teams have ever reached the 40-point mark in a 38-game season and gone are: West Ham with 42 in 2002-03, Sunderland with 40 points in 1996-97 and Bolton with 40 points the following given all three of those seasons were well over 20 years ago, is it time to set a lower benchmark?Over the past 10 seasons, the average points collected by the team in 18th - a total you'd need to better in order to stay up - has been exactly finished 17th last term with 38 points but, because of the weaknesses of the promoted trio, they would still have beaten the drop with just season before, 17th-placed Nottingham Forest managed 32 points - a tally which included a four points deduction - but actually only needed 27 to stay up. What's clear is that those coming up to the Premier League are finding it harder to be competitive, meaning those already in the division can do less to avoid the drop. Over the past two seasons the best newly-promoted side has averaged 25.5 points while the worst non-promoted club has averaged in stark contrast to the two seasons prior where the best newly-promoted side averaged 49 points while the worst non-promoted club averaged only 30. Does Championship performance matter? Leeds and Burnley are two of the strongest sides ever promoted to the Premier League, and before the past two seasons history would have suggested they were almost guaranteed to stay Championship dominance doesn't ensure five teams have ever gone straight back down after being promoted with 95 points or more - yet four of those five have done so in the past four years. Meanwhile, Sunderland collected 76 points last term, finishing fourth and gaining promotion through the of the past 11 teams promoted via the play-offs have gone straight back down the following that stretch, only Brentford in 2021-22 have collected more than 40 points in their season after going up (46). A fast start is crucial How each promoted side starts the season is one of the best indicators when it comes to survival promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived, while taking fewer than that has meant an almost guaranteed return to the be worth bookmarking this article and returning to it on 1 November. That's when all three promoted teams should have played 10 matches - although fixture dates can still be the two survivors - despite poor starts - were Bournemouth in 2015-16 (eight points after 10 games) and Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 (five points after 10 games). Is Premier League relegation all down to money? Why are newly-promoted clubs finding it so hard to compete in the Premier League? Football finance expert Kieran Maguire says money is "certainly a contributory factor"."The clubs coming up do have a disadvantage," he told BBC Sport. "Under the current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), if you've been in the Premier League for the past three seasons you can lose up to £105m over a three-year cycle. "But, most newly-promoted clubs can only lose up to £61m over three years. It works out to £13m per season in the Championship season and £35m per season in the top flight."That £44m gap in budgets has created a new middle class in the Premier League of clubs not strong enough to compete for Europe, but also incredibly unlikely to be dragged into a relegation battle."And turkeys aren't going to vote for Christmas. Those middle-class clubs aren't going to vote for any changes in the financial rules that would increases their chances of being relegated." 'Leeds look to data' - how promoted clubs are trying to buck relegation trend Jonathan Buchan, BBC Radio Leeds Sports Editor Leeds have their own theory when it comes to avoiding relegation. Physicality. That has been the word of the summer so far at the club, who have a strong internal belief that the difference between staying up and going straight back down is height, strength and an ability to win aerial battles in both first seven signings of the summer have an average height of 6ft 2in, which gives you a sense of that thought they need the majority of these signings to hit the ground running to have any hope of survival, and their early recruitment will certainly help that. However, they also need the other promoted clubs' new faces to falter and an established Premier League side, or two, to have difficult data may breed confidence in avoiding relegation, but football is played on grass, not spreadsheets. 'Burnley better prepared this time around' Scott Read, BBC Radio LancashireThe last time Burnley prepared for a Premier League season they'd just won the Championship title, and were comfortably the strongest side in the second tier. They then spent around £100m in the summer transfer window and were still relegated. However, despite relatively modest spending so far and losing key players from last season - James Trafford, CJ Egan-Riley and Josh Brownhill - I think most supporters will feel they probably have a better chance at bucking the trend this time around. The likelihood is they'll probably go down, but under Scott Parker I think they'll give themselves the best possible chance to avoid it. They won't be distracted about an idea of playing a 'brand of football' and a 'certain way' because that's how you need to be seen to be doing it. The promotion last season - and the record clean sheets - was built entirely on a selfless attitude, and a pride in defending and being hard to beat. It's that approach that their season will be built on. 'Renewed optimism in Sunderland' Nick Barnes, Sunderland commentator for BBC Radio NewcastleEight years in the wilderness and Sunderland are now about to embark on their latest Premier League campaign, with the landscape of the league having changed dramatically in that relatively short gulf between the Championship and Premier League is at its widestNow Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton are the shining examples of clubs who have bucked the trend of yo-yoing between the Premier League and Championship, with recruitment models the envy of many Sunderland has its own model of sustainability with a heavy emphasis on youth and academy-grown talent, they have bitten the bullet and spent over £100m in the transfer market in a bid to stay up. Sunderland is being reshaped and the owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus has to be applauded in his ambition. The financial decisions this summer won't have been taken lightly nor is a renewed optimism and Sunderland fans will hope his vision and the incredible journey - the seeds of which were sown with a return to the Championship in 2022 - can continue in the Premier League.
Daily Mirror
a few seconds ago
- Daily Mirror
Video Oliver Glasner used to inspire Crystal Palace to Community Shield triumph revealed
The Crystal Palace boss and his side followed up May's FA Cup triumph at Wembley by defeating the Premier League champions on penalties in the traditional curtain-raiser to the new season Crystal Palace boss Oliver Glasner inspired his side to Community Shield success by showing them a video of fans celebrating their FA Cup glory. The Eagles took down another giant as they beat Premier League champions Liverpool just 85 days after they shocked Manchester City to win the Cup. Keeper Dean Henderson was the penalty hero again as he saved two spot-kicks - including an incredible one to deny Alexis Mac Allister. Glasner said: 'We showed the players a video before we went to Wembley about the happiness of the fans winning the FA Cup. This is the emotional reward. You can't buy it for all the money in the world. Our fans deserved it. They are always supporting us and pushing the team forward and it is a great connection. We were all rewarded and this stays forever.' Henderson denied Mac Allister and Harvey Elliott in the shootout after Mo Salah skied his spot kick as Palace picked up the trophy in the season's curtain-raiser. The former Manchester United keeper used notes on a water bottle which he hid in his towel. It followed his save from Omar Marmoush when Palace beat City in May to win silverware for the first time in their history. Glasner added: 'We know that dean is a great goalkeeper. The day before the meeting at the hotel with the analysts and the goalkeeper coach they went through all the penalty takers from Liverpool and he is well prepared.' The Palace boss confirmed that defender Marc Guehi came off with cramp rather than injury with the England international linked to a move away before the transfer window closes. Palace will find out today if their CAS appeal on being demoted to the Europa Conference League was successful over joint-ownership issues. 'It will be good to put it behind us but I don't want that to come across as any kind of fatalism,' says chairman Steve Parish. 'I am determined that we will get the right outcome. If we don't get the right outcome, we will have to look at steps after that. "But even more after Friday, I do not understand how we cannot be in that competition. It is up to the judges to decide, we trust them. Let's see.'
Leader Live
30 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Wrexham: Former defender sounds warning to Charlton
Phil Parkinson's side finished runners-up in League One last term to secure an historic third successive promotion alongside title winners Birmingham City. The ambitious duo were joined in the second tier by Charlton who beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in the play-off final at Wembley. Mills told William Hill Vegas that it will be tough going when his former club go up a division and that it will be less of a struggle for Wrexham who be says already have a squad that can handle life in at a higher level. Mills said: 'Charlton is a magnificent club. I had two spells there, and I'll always be grateful for what the club has done for me. But the reality is, it's going to be incredibly difficult for them in the Championship. 'You've got to look at the sides dropping down from the Premier League - there are some very strong teams. And that's without even mentioning clubs already in the Championship like Bristol City, Sheffield United, and Norwich, who will all be pushing hard. 'Even the two clubs coming up with Charlton look extremely strong. Wrexham, for example, already have a squad that is arguably Championship quality, they can challenge the top sides. So it's a tough division from top to bottom. 'Charlton's priority has to be survival. Oxford managed to stay up last season. It was touch-and-go at times, but they got over the line. That's the kind of realistic approach Charlton need to take. 'Going from League One to the Premier League in two seasons is a nice idea, but right now it's just a pipe dream. The focus has to be on staying in the division and building from there.' Mills says Charlton boss Nathan Jones, who upset Wrexham fans by labelling their story as a 'circus' last season, needs to keep his feet on the ground and he stressed the importance of making shrewd signings this summer. He added: 'Like with any promoted side, recruitment is key. They need to be smart, really pinpoint the areas that need strengthening, and make wise decisions in the market. 'Nathan Jones needs to keep his feet on the ground. He's a passionate guy and that's great, but he can get a bit excitable at times. "What's needed now is a steady hand and a clear, grounded approach for what's ahead.'
