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Market turmoil rewrites the lessons of investing: podcast

Market turmoil rewrites the lessons of investing: podcast

Reuters08-04-2025

LONDON, April 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Follow on Apple, opens new tab or Spotify, opens new tab. Listen on the Reuters app, opens new tab. Read the episode transcript.
LONDON, April 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - From the crisis of 2008 to the pandemic to Trump's tariffs, governments and central banks have influenced asset prices. In this episode of The Big View podcast Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS's wealth management unit, talks about the stark message for investors.
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Musk turns on Trump, and GOP spending can't hide behind DOGE
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  • The Herald Scotland

Musk turns on Trump, and GOP spending can't hide behind DOGE

Musk seems frustrated that Republicans used him in their charade to balance the federal budget, frustrated that Trump used him for his own end. But he really should be frustrated that he was so gullible - because he should have seen all of this coming. Opinion: Musk erupts, claims Trump is in the Epstein files. Who could've seen this coming? I'm frustrated that this is the only thing receiving attention, considering the amount of work that needs to be done with the budget. Republicans used Elon Musk as a political smokescreen Whether Musk genuinely believed himself when he promised to cut $2 trillion (before quickly tempering that estimate) is up for debate. If he did believe it, he was entirely naive about both the current state of the Republican Party and our federal government. Republicans thought they could use Musk as a political win and distraction, allowing him to claw back government spending through the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, while congressional Republicans authorized massive deficit increases. Even after accounting for the economic growth that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would stimulate, it's projected to add $2.4 trillion (yes, with a T) to the federal deficit over the next decade. This figure stands as a mountain next to the small pile of $2 billion (yes, with a B) worth of verifiable budget cuts from DOGE. All the while, Republicans and Trump sang Musk's praises, knowing that they would turn around and spend money that we don't have. But Musk should have realized it was all a show. Trump skyrocketed the deficit in his first presidency, and every promise he's ever given for a balanced budget has been a lie. As much as MAGA likes to claim otherwise, Trump's GOP is no different than the swamp creatures they like to criticize. Opinion: Elon Musk is frustrated with Republicans wasting DOGE's effort to cut. So am I. Those who are actually interested in cutting government spending, which I think Musk at least somewhat seems to be, should not attach the idea to political parties because they will inevitably disappoint. There hasn't been a genuine effort to produce a balanced budget since the late 1990s, and there isn't likely to be from either Republicans or Democrats anytime soon. Trump and Musk have too big personalities to work together I'm not the least bit surprised that these two narcissists' relationship flamed out so quickly. There was never enough room in Trump's White House for both his and Musk's personalities. Trump has never maintained an extended relationship with somebody who is willing to disagree with him publicly. During his first term, Trump had extremely high personnel turnover rates, both among his Cabinet and his aides. Trump's "you're fired" catchphrase really says a lot about his approach to relationships. He is quick to turn on people who disagree with him or even just publicly embarrass him. Musk has been loudly advocating against Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" for its impact on the deficit. After a week of Musk criticizing the deficit spending in Trump's bill, the president has clearly had enough. He cannot tolerate a dissenting voice from within his ranks. Opinion alerts: Get columns from your favorite columnists + expert analysis on top issues, delivered straight to your device through the USA TODAY app. Don't have the app? Download it for free from your app store. Trump and the GOP are now likely to kick a powerful ally to the curb, all because Trump is so vain that he cannot handle differing opinions. This is why the Republican Party is now made up of yes-men, because they have allowed Trump to push all the spine that he can out of the party. Now that the sideshow of Musk is gone, Republicans have one less thing to hide behind. I'm not sure that makes it any more likely they'll act responsibly, but at least it's more transparent to Americans now. Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.

May jobs report shows 139,000 jobs were added last month
May jobs report shows 139,000 jobs were added last month

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May jobs report shows 139,000 jobs were added last month

Before the report's release, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated that 125,000 jobs were added last month. Job gains for March and April were revised down by a combined 95,000, portraying a weaker labor market that believed in late winter and early spring. March's total was downgraded from 185,000 to 120,000 and April's, from 177,000 to 147,000. Is the job market good or bad right now? The labor market has held up remarkably well despite the hurdles posed by Trump's economic policies, with employment gains averaging well over 100,000 a month so far this year. But many forecasters reckoned a more pronounced hiring slowdown took shape in May and would intensify in the months ahead. Trump's trade strategy lies at the center of the projected downshift. He paused the high double-digit tariffs he slapped on dozens of countries in April and in May agreed to slash levies on Chinese imports from 145% to a still-elevated 30%. China agreed to broadly similar concessions. But the moves hinge on further U.S. deals with China and other countries. And 25% tariffs remain in effect on all imported cars and many goods from Canada and Mexico. This week, Trump hiked fees on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from 25%. And while a trade court last month struck down many of Trump's tariffs, they remain in effect during an appeal, prolonging the uncertainty for businesses. Economists expect the duties to reignite inflation within a month or two and dampen consumer spending. The costs also have heightened business uncertainty, curtailing hiring and investment. How many federal employees are laid off? The Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency has cut as many as 120,000 federal jobs but many workers have been placed on administrative leave, leaving them on U.S. payrolls pending court cases, Morgan Stanley said in a report. Still, the reductions have started to filter into the jobs numbers. Goldman Sachs estimates federal employment declined by a relatively modest 10,000 in May, adding to the 26,000 government workers that Capital Economics says already have been chopped since February. Are there still immigrants coming to America? Besides toughening enforcement at the southern border, the administration has canceled or declined to renew work permits and other protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants, economist Lydia Boussour of EY-Parthenon wrote in a note to clients. That will likely mean a smaller labor supply that further constrains hiring, especially in industries such as construction and hospitality, she said. Some calendar quirks also could have suppressed employment last month. For technical reasons, a late Easter likely boosted payrolls in April but heralds a lower tally for May as staffing levels returned to normal, Morgan Stanley said. Yet while hiring generally has slowed, other economists figured job growth remained sturdy last month as companies frustrated by labor shortages during the pandemic continued to curtail layoffs. Capital Economics and Barclays both predicted 150,000 jobs gains for May. By the end of the year, however, Barclays believes tariffs, federal layoffs and immigration curbs will slow average monthly job gains to about 75,000.

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Trump says ex-pal Elon Musk can keep his golden White House key

The Herald Scotland

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  • The Herald Scotland

Trump says ex-pal Elon Musk can keep his golden White House key

Trump and Musk had a public falling out this week after the billionaire, who worked part-time for the federal government until last month, waged a war on the president's tax bill over it's projected $2.5 trillion price tag. The fight spiraled as the pair traded attacks, and the two men stopped speaking. Trump told reporters on June 6 that he was not interested in reconciling with Musk. Elon Musk hits back after Trump threatens contracts. SpaceX's government ties, explained In social media posts on June 5, the president said he asked Musk to leave his post spearheading the DOGE initiative and threatened to cancel billions of dollars of the SpaceX founder's federal contracts. Trump said the following day that he was serious about ending the government contracts --and would do so if he thought it was in the financial interest of the country. "We'll take look at everything. I look at everything. He's got a lot of money. He gets a lot of subsidy," Trump told reporters on June 6. "Only if it's to be fair for him and for the country, I would certainly think about it." Musk responded by saying he would decommission SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft immediately. He said in another post that without his help, Republicans would have lost the House and Senate and Trump would not currently be the president. A Washington Post analysis found that Musk's companies have received at least $38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies and tax credits over the years. SpaceX has about $22 billion in government contracts alone, Reuters reported. Trump says he's 'not thinking' about ex-pal Musk While the country might be twittering about his breakup with Musk, the president said on June 6 that his focus was squarely on a cache of complex international issues. "Honestly, I've been so busy working on China, working on Russia, working on Iran ... I'm not thinking about Elon Musk," Trump told reporters riding with him on Air Force One to his New Jersey golf club. He also claimed he had not thought about whether or not he would keep his new Tesla. SpaceX works closely with the Department of Defense and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. But the president told reporters the federal government can survive without its partnerships with Musk's companies. "The U.S. can survive without almost anybody," Trump said. "Except me." Contributing: Joey Garrison of USA TODAY.

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