Kerala likely to get below-normal rain in August, September
The rainfall in the seasonal half is 9% short of normal rainfall. However, a deviation of up to plus or minus 19% is considered normal rainfall by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD warns of below-normal rainfall for Kerala in August and September, suggesting that Kerala is likely to end up with a deficit season this year.
Couple of intense spells
Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, IMD Director, Thiruvananthapuram, said the southwest monsoon is likely to slip into a weak phase during the remaining half of the season. 'This doesn't mean that the rain will keep away. We expect a couple of intense spells, and the latest one to be around August 8 for two days, but cumulatively the overall rainfall will be in the below-normal category,' said Ms. Gopal.
Traditionally, Kerala receives the highest average monthly rainfall in July (653.5 mm), followed by June (648.3 mm), August (445 mm), and September (271 mm). Though the monsoon trough now runs at mean sea level at its normal position, it will soon shift to the north of its position, closer to the Himalayan foothills, leading to scanty rainfall or a 'break in monsoon' in south India and heavy spells in northern India.
Further, the prospects of forming monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal with a position favourable to the Kerala and Konkan belt seem to be bleak for the time being. This, along with a poor monsoon surge from the Arabian Sea and weakened westerly wind flow, may reduce the rainfall activity over the State.
The speciality of the healthy monsoon rain Kerala received so far was its almost even distribution without any major extreme spells. The appearance of the offshore trough along the west coast, one of the main features of the intense monsoon rainfalls in Kerala, was seen only a few days in the first half of the season. Instead, the cross-equatorial flow propelled the widespread and somewhat even distribution of the rain in Kerala. Similarly, most of the days, northwesterly winds were seen along the coast of Kerala, instead of westerlies.
The westerly wind blowing into the State straightaway from the Arabian Sea towards the Western Ghats normally leads to heavy spells, while the change in direction of the wind will deprive the State of its orographic advantage, according to experts.
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