Israel changes goalpost in Gaza, but will that mean a win?
On the face of it, the new plan only looks to reinforce the current Israeli occupation in Gaza and further intensify military operations. As a result, it reduces any chance of an early ceasefire or end to the war. More importantly, from an Israeli person's perspective, it puts the lives of remaining hostages in Hamas custody in grave danger — of the 251 hostages initially taken, 50 are still in Hamas custody, and only 20 are expected to still be alive.The new plan envisages the expansion of ground operations to take over Gaza City completely. The operations would be expanded into the 'central camps' and beyond, the city of Deir al-Balah and the tented camps in Muwasi, a vast cluster of displacement camps along the coast. The IDF has identified them as the remaining Hamas strongholds. These are also areas where Hamas may be holding hostages in tunnels or other secret locations.Given the new plan, the ongoing military operation in Gaza, Operation Gideon's Chariots, has been wound up. In the three months since its launch, the number of civilians killed in Gaza in IDF operations dramatically rose (from 53,500 in April to more than 61,000 at the beginning of August) by more than 6,500. Of these, more than 1,500 have been killed at food collection points established by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a joint initiative by Israel and the US to provide food aid to people in Gaza.advertisementAs with previous operations, Operation Gideon's Chariots failed to achieve its stated objectives. As a result, Hamas continues to inflict casualties on the IDF. Almost 900 IDF soldiers have already lost their lives in the war; more than 48 have been killed since the launch of the operation. The IDF is also no closer to the destruction of Hamas than it was in May. Hostages continue to be in Hamas custody, and all attempts at getting them back through a ceasefire deal have failed.Has Israel achieved its military objectives?When the war started in October 2023, Israel had set itself three clear objectives: completely dismantling the military capabilities of Hamas, ensuring that Gaza does not pose any military threat to Israel in the future, and bringing back all hostages safely. In September 2024, just before it launched military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, it added a fourth objective, the "safe return" of northern settlers.With the defeat of Hezbollah and the decimation of its top leadership, Israel could claim the achievement of its fourth objective. But the three primary objectives remain elusive.advertisementHamas, despite being battered, remains effective in Gaza. Over the past 22 months, most estimates suggest that almost 12,000 to 15,000 Hamas cadres have been eliminated, although the IDF estimates are higher at almost 23,000. But the worrying thing for Israel is that thousands of cadres have been recruited afresh and that there is yet no alternative to Hamas in Gaza. Ceasefire remains elusive, and hostages remain in Hamas custody.Is there an end state?Israel's insistence on a military solution which aims at the complete annihilation of Hamas poses serious questions. The new plan also threatens the lives of thousands of people living in concentrated areas of cities and camps in Gaza. Refusal to allow international aid agencies to distribute aid and the failure of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to deliver food to the starving population are adding to pressure, including that from the US, Israel's principal benefactor. The decision by countries like France, the UK, Australia, etc., to recognise the State of Palestine too is adding pressure on Israel.Within Israel, the refusal to accept any end state unless Hamas is eliminated — even at the cost of the lives of remaining hostages — is causing widespread protests and opposition. More than a dozen retired senior officials, including IDF chiefs of staff, intelligence chiefs, Shin Bet and Mossad directors, and police commissioners, issued a joint statement on August 10 calling to end the war, arguing that Israel has racked up more losses than victories and that the fighting has dragged on for political reasons rather than strategic military need. Families of hostages are out on the streets protesting against the grave danger their loved ones would face once the IDF launches the new operations.advertisementWithout a complete victory in Gaza, there is no scenario of a 'day after' as admitted by many senior Israeli officials who, in the same breath, also acknowledge the improbability of achieving this aim. The war in Gaza is therefore doomed to carry on, motivated more by political greed than military logic. The people in Gaza, meanwhile, face another long and scary period of starvation, death, destruction and relocations.(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a Foreign Policy Expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Tune InMust Watch
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