Reds takeaways: Cubs take series as starters don't last long, hand off to shallow bullpen

New York Times

26-05-2025

CINCINNATI — For the second time in two days — and for the fifth time this season — the Cincinnati Reds had a lead against the Chicago Cubs after six innings and lost. On Sunday, the Reds lost to the Cubs 11-8 and dropped the series two games to one.
The Cubs entered Great American Ball Park atop the standings in the National League Central and left town in the same position, thanks to a Reds team that couldn't close out games.
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It was a disappointing series for the Reds, who had a chance to pull closer to the front-running Cubs, but each time came up short. Since Opening Day, when the team couldn't close out a ninth-inning lead, it's been a frustrating season that has seen the team go in spurts. One game, they might look like a squad good enough to contend in the NL Central, and then several more where the team just comes up short.
Here are four takeaways from the Reds' series loss to the Cubs.
The Reds have now played each team in their division and sit at 8-9 against the Cubs (1-2), St. Louis Cardinals (2-2), Milwaukee Brewers (1-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (4-2).
Of those four teams, the Cubs have looked the best, even if none of the teams have appeared to be juggernauts. That said, the Cubs have been the best-looking team out of the bunch.
As one Reds player noted this weekend, when Dansby Swanson is batting seventh in the lineup as he did Friday night, it's a pretty tough lineup.
The bottom third of the Cubs order had at least one home run in each of the three games, and as a whole the Nos. 7, 8 and 9 hitters went a combined 14 for 40 (.350) with nine runs scored, seven RBI and five home runs, including two by Cubs catcher Reese McGuire, who was in the minor leagues until Sunday morning. McGuire was called up to replace Miguel Amaya, who was placed on the injured list after suffering a strained oblique muscle in Saturday's Reds victory.
What is keeping the Cubs from looking like a no-doubt favorite is their pitching staff, especially their starting rotation. Cubs starters are 20-11 with a 4.11 ERA, a half-run worse than the Reds. Justin Steele is out for the season, and Shota Imanaga is out with a hamstring injury. The Cubs will certainly be looking to upgrade their rotation as the trade deadline nears and with an extra starter or two, they could be a contender.
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Right now, they're fighting off a charging St. Louis team that has won 17 of 22 games since leaving Cincinnati, moving from fourth place behind the Reds in the NL Central to second place ahead of the Reds and Brewers, which are tied for third.
Friday, the Reds led the Cubs 6-2 after six innings and lost 13-6. Sunday, the Reds led the Cubs 8-3 after six innings and lost 11-8.
In both games, little plays made the difference ahead of the big plays. Friday, it was Reds second baseman Matt McLain trying to tag Nico Hoerner going from first to second on a grounder. Hoerner avoided the tag, which would've been the second out of the inning. Then the next hitter, Ian Happ, blooped a ball in between the Reds' left fielder, shortstop and third baseman. Two singles and a grand slam later, the Cubs went from trailing by four to leading by two.
On Sunday, it was a knuckleball off the bat from Cubs centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong that McLain couldn't corral, having to contort himself in midair and reach across his body, but the ball hit off his glove and into the outfield, allowing two runners to score with two outs in the first inning. With two outs in the seventh, Swanson hit a broken-bat looper into right that started the Cubs' three-run rally.
None of the Reds starters managed to go six innings in the three-game set against the Cubs. On Sunday, Nick Lodolo went five innings. Saturday, Andrew Abbott went 5 2/3 innings and Friday, in his first game off the injured list, Hunter Greene lasted just four innings.
That left 12 1/3 innings to the bullpen, which has been decent so far this season but is hardly the strength of the team, especially with Alexis Díaz not matching his previous form and getting demoted to Triple-A Louisville earlier this month, a blow to the bullpen's depth.
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A mix of innings to be covered, poor performance and bad luck had Reds manager Terry Francona using five relievers Sunday, three Saturday and six Friday.
One thing that could help the team is having five of the next six Thursdays off, giving the bullpen arms at least one day off a week. Both Scott Barlow and Tony Santillan have been used in 25 games so far this season. Only five pitchers in baseball as of Sunday afternoon had pitched in more games, with the Minnesota Twins' Louis Varland the leader with 27 appearances. For the Reds, Emilio Pagán has pitched in 24 games, then Taylor Rogers (23) and Graham Ashcraft (22). Ashcraft's 26 1/3 innings are the most among Reds relievers.
It's not just that the Cubs came back from deficits in two of the three games; it's that the Reds didn't do anything offensively after the Cubs took the lead. The Reds outscored the Cubs 20-7 in the first six innings of the three games, but Chicago scored 21 runs in the series from the seventh inning on.
Even in Saturday's Reds victory, the Cubs trailed 6-1 after six innings and scored three over the final three innings and brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth inning.
In the series, the Reds were 27-for-79 (.342) in innings one through six and 6-for-29 (.207) in innings seven through nine. On the season, the Reds are hitting .256/.327/.425 in the first six innings, with their 183 runs in the first six innings third in the National League, behind the Cubs (202) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (197). In the seventh inning and later, the Reds are hitting .220/.309/.325, and their 65 runs are tied for 12th in the National League, while the Cubs lead the NL with 109 runs in the seventh and later.
Sunday was the fifth time this season — and second in the series — that the Reds led after six innings and lost. Only the Athletics and Arizona Diamondbacks have lost more games that they've led after six innings, with six.
And once the lead goes, the Reds' bats have gone silent. The Reds are hitting .267/.348/.406 with a lead, .237/.311/.405 when tied and .223/.295/.369 when behind. And when it matters most — in the seventh or later with a one-run lead, a tie or the tying run on base, at the plate or on deck — the Reds are at their worst, hitting .157/.246/.225.
If the Reds don't hit when it matters most, they won't be playing when it matters most, and it looks as if maybe the Cubs will.
(Top photo of Reds outfielder Will Benson attempting to catch Reese McGuire's solo home run: Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)