
India snatched defeat from jaws of victory: Top geostrategist on ceasefire with Pak
India "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory," said noted geostrategist Brahma Chellaney, reacting to the unexpected ceasefire announced between India and Pakistan on Saturday. Just hours earlier, fears of a full-blown war loomed large as Pakistani troops moved closer to the border and India remained on high alert. But by evening, a surprising calm had set in.Chellaney, voicing disappointment over the development, said India has failed to learn from history and is merely repeating past strategic errors.advertisement"The military movement was in India's favour. Pakistan's air defences proved to be much weaker than Pak had expected could see that from the rival drones. They were sending so many drones and missiles into India but not effectively. India, on the other hand, sent a limited number of missiles and drones and was able to hit its targets," Chellaney said.
He questioned the rationale behind India's decision to de-escalate despite holding a clear upper hand militarily."It underlines India's long political position of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory," he said, wondering why India decided to de-escalate. "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has become a repeating pattern. That is why India continues to repeat history. We never learn from history. So, history repeats itself," he said.advertisementChellaney compared the current situation to past instances where, in his view, India surrendered military or diplomatic leverage without gaining lasting strategic benefit."In 1972, we gave away our war gains onto the negotiating tables without securing anything in return from Pakistan. 2021, we vacated the strategic Kailash heights, forfeiting our only bargaining chip in negotiations, and then we agreed to Chinese-designed buffer zones in Ladakh areas and now Operation Sindoor," Chellaney said."Operating Sindoor had such a powerful symbolism of India's women avenging the murders of 26 husbands and yet today the way we ended this operation after Pakistan even fired a missile at Delhi leaves many questions unanswered," he said.'History will not look kindly upon India's decision today,' Chellaney added, calling the conclusion of Operation Sindoor a strategic and symbolic misstep that raises more questions than answers.The remarks come after India and Pakistan announced that they have agreed to a ceasefire after two days of strikes and counterstrikes. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Pakistan reached out to India, and the two countries negotiated directly and agreed to a ceasefire, the government said on Saturday, confirming the surprise truce after days of military escalation and heightened tensions between the neighbours.advertisement"The Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan called the DGMO of India at 15.30 hours (3.30 pm) this afternoon. It was agreed between them that both sides would cease all firing and military action on land, in the air, and at sea with effect from 1700 hours (5 pm)," he said.The announcement of the ceasefire came as a big surprise as it was only this morning that the Foreign Secretary, in a briefing, said that Pakistan was moving its troops to border areas and the Indian Armed Forces were on alert. The statement sparked fears of a further escalation from Pakistan's side, whose Defence Minister repeatedly made statements in the media confirming that a war was knocking on the doors.
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Hindustan Times
34 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Trump-Musk bust-up smolders
LONDON, - What matters in U.S. and global markets today Donald Trump's hotly anticipated meetings with the leaders of the world's two other biggest economies ended up being sideshows compared to his online bust-up with billionaire backer Elon Musk. It's Friday, so today I'll provide a quick overview of what's happening in global markets and then offer you some weekend reading suggestions away from the headlines. Today's Market Minute * White House aides scheduled a call between Donald Trump and Elon Musk for Friday, Politico reported, after a huge public spat that saw threats fly over government contracts and ended with the world's richest man suggesting the U.S. president should be impeached. * U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping confronted weeks of brewing trade tensions and a battle over critical minerals in a rare leader-to-leader call on Thursday that left key issues to further talks. * China has signalled for more than 15 years that it was looking to weaponise areas of the global supply chain, a strategy modelled on longstanding American export controls Beijing views as aimed at stalling its rise. The scramble in recent weeks to secure export licences for rare earths shows China has devised a better, more precisely targeted weapon for the trade war. * There are some tentative early signs that weak thermal coal prices are starting to boost import demand among Asia's heavyweight buyers China and India. Read Reuters Columnist Clyde Russell to find out more. Trump-Musk bust-up smolders For markets trying to navigate everything from creeping signs of labor market weakness to the latest European Central Bank easing, the spat between the U.S. president and the world's richest man proved more than a distraction. It remains to be seen if it overshadows the May payrolls report later on Friday. The extraordinary sparring match drew in other major political and business figures and included potentially seismic accusations and threats. In turn, the share price of Musk's Tesla plummeted almost 20% at one point, dragging Wall Street stock indexes and crypto tokens deep into the red. The public feud appeared to cool off somewhat overnight and allowed stock futures to regain some lost ground. But the fact that the spat overshadowed the other major events of the day was another marker of this administration's unpredictability. The substance of the row was over Trump's "one big beautiful" fiscal bill that Musk thinks is a "disgusting abomination" due to the amount of spending. The bill, which has yet to be passed by the Senate, is expected to add $2.4 trillion to the U.S. debt over the next decade, based on CBO estimates. The vast bulk of this will likely be incurred over the next four years. In the background, the call between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping delivered no breakthroughs in the trade row apart from warmer words and an agreement to resume talks. The Oval Office meeting with Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz was relatively positive about trade and diplomatic issues. Earlier in the day, the ECB cut rates again as expected and suggested that there may be a pause at its next meeting and that it could be near the end of its easing cycle now that 'real' inflation-adjusted rates are back near zero. The euro hit a six-week high on Thursday regardless, although it gave back those daily gains today. Rising weekly U.S. jobless claims, meantime, cast a shadow over today's release of the May employment report. Consensus forecasts are for a slowdown in payroll growth to 130,000. Treasury yields, which ebbed and flowed all day on the conflicting signals from the trade meetings and stock gyrations, are back hovering at the week's lows ahead of the jobs report. Even though Federal Reserve officials continue to signal caution about the uncertain outlook ahead, markets are now priced for a resumption of Fed cuts by September. Into the already confusing mix, the Treasury released its annual report on potential currency manipulation overseas, adding Switzerland and Ireland to its watchlist, which already includes China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam. The list likely carries more heft than usual amid multiple tense trade negotiations. Markets assume the U.S. may pressure other countries to let their currencies appreciate versus the dollar as part of deals to avert severe tariffs being re-imposed next month. The Swiss National Bank responded on Friday by saying it would intervene in currency markets where necessary to keep inflation on track. Intervention to cap a super-strong franc has been a critical monetary tool used over the past decade and may need to be tapped again now that Swiss inflation has returned negative just as the SNB's key interest rate is set to return to zero in June. Elsewhere, China's yuan slipped against the dollar while falling to a near two-year low versus its major trading partners on Friday as the Trump-Xi call fell short of many expectations. Stock markets overseas were mixed on Friday as Wall Street remained on edge and the U.S. jobs report loomed. In the euro zone, first-quarter GDP was revised higher to show twice the growth originally estimated: 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, leading to an annual rate of 1.5%. India's central bank cut key rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points to 5.5%, its steepest cut in five years. It also slashed its cash reserve ratio - funds that banks are required to hold - by 100 bps to 3% in a surprise move aimed at boosting lending and speeding up policy transmission. In single stocks, Tesla shares recovered around 5% in Frankfurt on Friday, having closed down 14% in New York yesterday amid the Trump-Musk spat. It lost about $150 billion in market value yesterday, which caused the erstwhile member of the 'Magnificent Seven' megacaps to drop to ninth in the list of most-valuable firms behind Broadcom and Berkshire Hathaway. Broadcom's shares, however, fell 4% in extended trading overnight as its forecast-beating earnings seemed to underwhelm the Street. In Bank of America's weekly tally of fund flows, U.S. stocks saw outflows of $7.5 billion, the third week of exits, while European shares saw inflows of $2.6 billion, the eighth week of inflows. Weekend reading suggestions * 'BLUE BONDS': European countries should seize the moment to boost the size and liquidity of jointly-issued euro sovereign debt, and a solution could be to replace a proportion of the stock of national bonds with senior Eurobonds, or 'blue bonds'. So says a 'working document' from Peterson Institute senior fellow and former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard in a paper jointly written with Citadel's Angel Ubide. * NUCLEAR BLIND SPOTS: United Nations nuclear watchdogs appear to have lost track of some critical elements of Iran's nuclear activities since U.S. President Donald Trump ditched a 2015 deal that imposed strict restrictions and close supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Reuters Francois Murphy and John Irish report on key blind spots that include not knowing how many centrifuges Iran possesses or where the machines and their parts are produced and stored. * OCEAN ECONOMY: Trade in the global 'ocean economy' hit as much as $2.2 trillion in 2023, about 7% of total world trade, but this trade is increasingly threatened by climate change and environmental problems, the United Nations trade and development arm UNCTAD showed in a report this week. 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Reuters' Laurie Chen and Lewis Jackson show how it falls to the Bureau of Industrial Security and Import and Export Control, part of China's Ministry of Commerce, to review export permits for the rare earth magnets, vital for car motors, wind turbines and even U.S. F-35 fighter jets. * FINANCE AND AI: Artificial intelligence advances in the financial sector offer enhanced data analysis, risk management and capital allocation, but there are problems too, according to a paper on CEPR's VoxEU website. As AI systems become more widespread, they introduce challenges for regulators tasked with balancing the benefits of innovation with the need for financial stability, market integrity, consumer protection and fair competition. * DRONE ATTACK: Ukraine's 'Operation Spider's Web' last weekend used smuggled drones to attack bomber aircraft deep inside Russia, and the 'remarkable event' could affect the future of conflict, argues Council on Foreign Relations fellow Michael Horowitz. The attack "clearly shows that even targets deep in a country's territory could now be at risk". * IMF EUROPE: The case for closer European economic integration has become more compelling as external challenges multiply, according to Alfred Kammer, director of the International Monetary Fund's European Department. Stressing the need for the completion of the single market, Kammer said capital markets integration has been too slow and that cross-border flows have been frustrated by persistent fragmentation. "If history is a guide, Europe can turn adversity to advantage." * ALPINE TRUSTS: Liechtenstein is examining tightening control of scores of Russian-linked trusts abandoned by their managers under pressure from Washington. Reuters' John O'Donnell and Oliver Hirt cite sources in reporting that the country, one of the world's smallest and richest, is home to thousands of low-tax trusts, hundreds with links to Russians. Chart of the day Supply chain stress ticked up in May, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday. The bank noted that its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May rose to 0.19 from -0.28 in April, only the second time it stood in positive territory this year and the highest reading since the 0.20 seen in August of last year. Although the index remains subdued compared to the post-pandemic surge, growing concerns about the impact of the tariff war - particularly the impact of China's restrictions on rare earth and minerals exports on the global auto industry - will ensure policymakers keep a close eye on these pressures for any signs of re-emerging inflation. Today's events to watch * U.S. May employment report , April consumer credit ; Canada May employment report Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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Business Standard
37 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Pakistan attacked 'insaniyat', Kashmiriyat in Pahalgam: PM Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday accused Pakistan of attacking 'insaniyat' and Kashmiriyat by targeting tourists in Pahalgam, saying the intent was to trigger communal clashes in India and rob Kashmiri people dependent on tourism of their livelihoods. The prime minister was speaking after flagging off the first train service to the Kashmir Valley, and inaugurating several development projects, including the world's highest railway bridge over the Chenab river and India's first cable-stayed Anji bridge. He said tourism provided employment and acts as a connecting link between people, but unfortunately, the neighbouring country is an enemy of humanity, harmony and tourism. "Not only that, Pakistan is also the enemy of the poor's bread and butter. What happened on April 22 in Pahalgam is an example of that. Pakistan attacked 'insaniyat' and Kashmiriyat in Pahalgam. "The intent of Pakistan was to trigger communal riots in India. It wanted to strip people of Kashmir of their earnings, that's why Pakistan attacked tourism," he said. Tourism was increasing during the last five years in Jammu and Kashmir, and tourists were arriving in record numbers, Modi said. He said tourism fuels the kitchens of the poor in Jammu and Kashmir, and Pakistan deliberately targeted that sector. "Pakistan wanted to destroy the livelihoods of guides, pony operators, guest house owners, shop owners, and roadside dhaba operators who are dependent on tourism. Adil, who challenged the terrorists, was also there to earn his livelihood," he said, referring to the ponywala, who was among the 26 people gunned down by terrorists in Pahalgam on April 22. The prime minister said it has been one month since Indian forces wreaked havoc on terrorists holed up in Pakistan through Operation Sindoor. "Whenever Pakistan hears about Operation Sindoor, it will be reminded of its shameful defeat," he said. Modi said the Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Line Project is a symbol of a new and empowered Jammu and Kashmir, and a resounding proclamation of India's growing strength. The Chenab and Anji bridges will serve as gateways to prosperity for Jammu and Kashmir, he said. The prime minister inaugurated the two state-of-the-art bridges before flagging off the Vande Bharat train to mark the completion of the 272-km Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla railway link (USBRL), providing direct train connectivity to the valley. He also laid the foundation stone and inaugurated multiple development projects worth over Rs 46,000 crore for Katra, the base camp for pilgrims visiting the Vaishno Devi shrine atop Trikuta hills in Reasi district. The 272-km USBRL project, constructed at a cost of around Rs 43,780 crore, includes 36 tunnels, spanning 119 km, and 943 bridges. The project establishes all-weather, seamless rail connectivity between Kashmir and the rest of the country, aiming to transform regional mobility and drive socio-economic integration.
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First Post
an hour ago
- First Post
Is China arming Iran with missiles? Report says new order enough to make 800 ballistic weapons
At a time when the Trump administration is holding talks with Iran about its nuclear programme, Iran is procuring thousands of tons of missile fuel from China that could power up to 800 ballistic missiles, according to a report. read more A missile unveiled by Iran is launched in an unknown location in Iran in this picture received by Reuters on August 20, 2020. Iran is procuring thousands of tons of missile fuel from China that can power hundreds of ballistic missiles, according to a report. The development has come at a time when the United States and Iran and engaged in talks regarding the regime's nuclear programme. Iran has ruled out stopping nuclear fuel enrichment. Moreover, the report of missile fuel's purchase from China has now emerged for the second time this year. Iran has placed an order for thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate to a Chinese entity based on Hong Kong, according to Wall Street Journal. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The newspaper said that the chemical ordered could power as much as 800 ballistic missiles. Previously, a report had said in January that said that Iran had bought the chemical from China to power ballistic missiles. However, that lot was later understood to have caught fire in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The massive fire killed dozens and injured more than 1,000 people. Iran ramps up missile programme amid talks At a time when the United States is engaging in talks with Iran, the regime has sought to rebuild its missile programme. In clashes with Israel last year, Iran had suffered damages to its air defence systems to the extent that officials said it was left virtually naked. Israel had also struck a missile production site and a site related to the nuclear weapons programme. The Journal has reported that shipments of ammonium perchlorate are expected to arrive in Iran in the coming months from China. Sources told the newspaper that some of the chemical would be likely sent to Yemen-based Houthis. While Houthis have reached a ceasefire with the United States, they remain at conflict with Israel. The newspaper has reported that the chemical was ordered likely before the United States and Iran entered talks. In April, the United States sanctioned six persons and six entities in Iran and China for the trade of missile fuel, including sodium perchlorate, for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).