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India Today
10-05-2025
- Politics
- India Today
India snatched defeat from jaws of victory: Top geostrategist on ceasefire with Pak
India "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory," said noted geostrategist Brahma Chellaney, reacting to the unexpected ceasefire announced between India and Pakistan on Saturday. Just hours earlier, fears of a full-blown war loomed large as Pakistani troops moved closer to the border and India remained on high alert. But by evening, a surprising calm had set voicing disappointment over the development, said India has failed to learn from history and is merely repeating past strategic military movement was in India's favour. Pakistan's air defences proved to be much weaker than Pak had expected could see that from the rival drones. They were sending so many drones and missiles into India but not effectively. India, on the other hand, sent a limited number of missiles and drones and was able to hit its targets," Chellaney said. He questioned the rationale behind India's decision to de-escalate despite holding a clear upper hand militarily."It underlines India's long political position of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory," he said, wondering why India decided to de-escalate. "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has become a repeating pattern. That is why India continues to repeat history. We never learn from history. So, history repeats itself," he compared the current situation to past instances where, in his view, India surrendered military or diplomatic leverage without gaining lasting strategic benefit."In 1972, we gave away our war gains onto the negotiating tables without securing anything in return from Pakistan. 2021, we vacated the strategic Kailash heights, forfeiting our only bargaining chip in negotiations, and then we agreed to Chinese-designed buffer zones in Ladakh areas and now Operation Sindoor," Chellaney said."Operating Sindoor had such a powerful symbolism of India's women avenging the murders of 26 husbands and yet today the way we ended this operation after Pakistan even fired a missile at Delhi leaves many questions unanswered," he said.'History will not look kindly upon India's decision today,' Chellaney added, calling the conclusion of Operation Sindoor a strategic and symbolic misstep that raises more questions than remarks come after India and Pakistan announced that they have agreed to a ceasefire after two days of strikes and counterstrikes. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Pakistan reached out to India, and the two countries negotiated directly and agreed to a ceasefire, the government said on Saturday, confirming the surprise truce after days of military escalation and heightened tensions between the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan called the DGMO of India at 15.30 hours (3.30 pm) this afternoon. It was agreed between them that both sides would cease all firing and military action on land, in the air, and at sea with effect from 1700 hours (5 pm)," he announcement of the ceasefire came as a big surprise as it was only this morning that the Foreign Secretary, in a briefing, said that Pakistan was moving its troops to border areas and the Indian Armed Forces were on alert. The statement sparked fears of a further escalation from Pakistan's side, whose Defence Minister repeatedly made statements in the media confirming that a war was knocking on the doors.
Express Tribune
20-04-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
How to benefit from trade war?
The recent US tariff policies have created major problems for most export-led economies and have escalated the US-Sino trade war to new heights. In 2018, when the US imposed the first round of tariffs, it negotiated hard to balance its trade deficit with China by getting guarantees of increased soybean imports from Beijing. It worked for a while but afterwards the deficit has been widening over time. Moreover, since 2018, Chinese investors started to relocate their manufacturing operations to Vietnam for rebranding Chinese-designed products as Vietnamese. Though these exports from Vietnam were generated by activities that used imports from China, it was not a simple case of trade rerouting or using Vietnam as a trade proxy. The local industry added considerable value to the exports before shipping them to the West. Now, amid the current round of US tariff war, China and Vietnam have already signed over 40 fresh deals related to production, railway infrastructure and supply chains this month. These new deals, in retaliation to the US tariffs, come at a time when Vietnam is already China's fourth largest trading partner as well as the largest one from the Asean bloc – thanks to the free trade agreement (FTA) it enjoys through the Asean-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This model has really worked for Vietnam, which in 2024 alone experienced a 14% increase in annual exports, surpassing the $400 billion mark for the first time. For perspective, China's exports to the US are valued at $480 billion, which shows how much Vietnam has benefited from Chinese investments and technology transfers over the years. Vietnam received both capital and labour growth boosts due to rerouting from China with value addition. It retained the spillover benefits from tariffs on China while avoiding being targeted themselves till recently. Learning lessons from this model, it is high time for Islamabad to tear a page or two from Vietnam's playbook and take leverage of the escalating trade war between the two giants. Pakistan already has a free trade agreement with Beijing and has invested considerably in its duty-free Gwadar Port. Gwadar's Special Economic Zone offers investor-friendly policies and as prices are inflated both in Chinese and US markets, it can attract parallel imports, especially in electronics, luxury goods and premium consumer products' categories. However, at present, Gwadar doesn't boast of state-of-the-art shipping operations and logistics – something that is required to carve out a new role in a high-tariff world. If Pakistan doesn't capitalise on this opportunity, it is likely that Vietnam, Singapore or Hong Kong could become a parallel import powerhouse for mainland China. Hong Kong is in particular advantageous due to its tighter coupling with yuan, allowing China to bypass its own tariffs on American goods and to export goods destined for the US through Hong Kong. So, Pakistan needs a strong business case to convince Chinese investors to use Gwadar as a parallel import hub. The most fruitful route is likely to be the policy of encouraging openness to foreign investment and technology transfer under systematic arrangements. Pakistan's government should design a framework for joint venture (JV) requirements, foreign investment modalities and administrative review and licensing processes for technology transfer from foreign companies. JV mode should be made compulsory for FDI inflows in manufacturing where foreign companies agree to sign over their IP and technology to access Gwadar's Special Economic Zone. The products manufactured here may not be available to Pakistan's local market for the initial five years and should be made for export only. Regarding transfer of intellectual property (IP), Pakistan can take guidance from new EU rules regarding battery production for electric vehicles (EVs). As per the EU commission, the firms seeking grants and subsidies for battery production will be required to share IP with European firms and to establish manufacturing facilities within Europe. Pakistan can opt for a similar policy by first launching a generous R&D grants scheme and then linking the award of such grants to those firms that share IP with Pakistani companies for local manufacturing. At the same time, as China has barred rare earth exports to the US, Pakistan can set up rare earth mining operations in collaboration with foreign experts for export to the US. The problem with the production of rare earths is its huge environmental cost; otherwise rare earths aren't that rare. Pakistan can even consider importing rare earth element-bearing rock or concentrate from China and set up processing plants in Gwadar. However, the contamination of water sources due to radioactive waste can result in net negative profits and the whole idea mayn't be feasible at all. In a nutshell, Pakistan needs to act fast for negotiating with Washington by July 8, 2025 to avoid the re-imposition of tariffs after the 90-day pause. At the same time, it needs to seal a deal with China for the transfer of manufacturing technology and IP to the Gwadar economic zone so that products designed in China are "Made in Pakistan" for export to the US markets under licensing arrangements. This could be a win-win situation for everyone, but by no means, it's an easy task, albeit not an impossible one. The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a strategy consultant
South China Morning Post
24-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Decline of the US dollar as dominant global currency is inevitable: economists
The global economy is inexorably moving towards a multicurrency system as China's persistent efforts to internationalise the yuan and technological changes erode the US dollar's dominant position, economists said at a conference on Monday. Advertisement 'Trade invoicing in yuan went from zero per cent to 30 per cent in the last 10 years, and half of Chinese capital flows are now in yuan, much higher than before,' said Jin Keyu, a professor at the London School of Economics, at a panel hosted by the Milken Institute, a US-based think tank. 'The truth is that there has been a slow decline of the dollar in the data, and the non-conventional reserve currencies – even outside of the yuan – have jumped from 2 per cent to 11 per cent,' she added, noting there is 'consensus' among economists that the world is heading towards 'multicurrency equilibrium' over the long term. The emergence of alternatives to the widely used Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) payment system is a 'massive undercurrent' that is accelerating the process of financial diversification, Jin said, adding that the significance of this development was underappreciated. Several new payment systems have gained traction over the past few years, including mBridge – a central bank digital currency platform built using blockchain technology – and the Chinese-designed Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Advertisement Beijing has long pursued a strategy of turning the yuan into a global currency to create a stable monetary environment for its own economic development and to reduce the United States' dominance over the global financial system.
Wall Street Journal
11-02-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
China's Xi Is Building an Economic Fortress Against U.S. Pressure
A day in China could easily start like this: Roll out of bed and swipe through WeChat messages on your Huawei smartphone. Hop into a BYD electric car and drive to the railroad station, where a high-speed train from a state-run factory whisks you to your destination. Chinese-designed nuclear plants, solar farms and wind turbines power the city's lights. China is racing to make itself less reliant on the outside world's products and technology—part of a yearslong effort by leader Xi Jinping to make China more self-sufficient and impervious to Western pressure as tensions with the U.S. rise. Beijing has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into favored industries, especially in high-end manufacturing, while exhorting business leaders to fall in line with the government's priorities.
