CNA938 Rewind - It's in Southeast Asia's best interest for Timor-Leste to be part of ASEAN: Analyst
Singapore has launched an enhanced technical assistance programme to support Timor-Leste's integration into ASEAN, reinforcing its commitment to regional cooperation. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced this during an official four-day visit of Timor-Leste's Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmão, to Singapore – it's been over a decade since his first in the role. Lance Alexander and Daniel Martin find out more from Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, Senior International Affairs Analyst, Solaris.
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Tensions have steadily escalated since, culminating in the recent air strikes and cross-border shelling. Asean has remained publicly silent throughout, although some individual member states have called for peace. The conflict was also not raised at the recent Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia is the current Asean chair and when asked about the issue during a press conference on July 11, Malaysia's Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan called it a bilateral issue and reaffirmed the group's traditional stance of non-interference. While Asean has long prided itself on consensus-building and neutrality, Mr Andrew of CSIS said its silence in the face of open conflict is unwise and risks diminishing its standing on the world stage. That credibility has taken a further hit as Cambodia seems to have bypassed the grouping by appealing directly to the United Nations. 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'The gap between Asean's aspirational vision and its operational readiness has rarely been this exposed; and I am worried that the current geopolitical contour will make it more frequently exposed,' said Mr Andrew. On July 24, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said that he had sent messages to the prime ministers of Cambodia and Thailand, hoping to speak with them personally. Calling the situation worrying, he said that both countries are key members of Asean and close neighbours to Malaysia, adding that he hoped they would de-escalate tensions and return to the negotiating table. Trust a key issue? Some analysts say a key factor holding Asean back is the lack of trust between the parties involved. Asean Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn is Cambodian, and some observers argue that Thailand may not view him as a neutral mediator. A similar impasse occurred in 2008, when Cambodia rejected mediation by then Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan, a veteran Thai diplomat, during border clashes near the Preah Vihear temple. After mediation failed, the conflict simmered without formal resolution, until 2011, when Cambodia turned to the UN following renewed violence at the same border area. However, others say the problem is structural, not personal. Ms Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said the issue lies with Asean's institutional design, not the nationality of its representatives. 'The Secretariat does not have the mandate to lead politically, and decisions must come from member states,' she said, noting how back in 2011, Cambodia had similarly turned to the UN. Eventually, the case went to the International Court of Justice, which ruled in 2013 that Cambodia had sovereignty over the temple and ordered Thai troops to withdraw. That verdict helped ease tensions, but more than a decade on, diplomatic relations between the two neighbours are at their lowest in years. Bilateral channels, said Ms Lin, may no longer be viable. Still, she believes Asean has a narrow window to act. Neutral members like Indonesia or Singapore could potentially step in to broker talks or quietly facilitate de-escalation. In the last bout of fighting between the two countries in 2011 – when Indonesia was the Asean chair – then Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa undertook shuttle diplomacy to defuse tensions. He held talks with both sides in their respective capitals, and also subsequently met with the UN Security Council alongside the two nations' foreign ministers. With the current ignition of tensions, Ms Lin said, 'if Asean doesn't step up, it risks being sidelined in its own region. China, which has close ties with both countries, has already shown interest in stepping in'. China on July 24 expressed deep concern over the border clashes and offered to play a constructive role in promoting peace, urging both sides to resolve the dispute through dialogue and pledging to remain fair, impartial and supportive of regional stability. Asean would prefer that the two countries resolve the conflict bilaterally, as both are members of the regional organisation. But if that is not possible, they should resolve it peacefully through third-party mediation, said Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at business consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore. However, the non-response from Asean – as of July 24 – signifies 'collective fatigue' on the part of the group in dealing with conflict in the region, he added. The group has faced criticism for its failure to implement the five-point peace plan with Myanmar's military regime, as well as its inability to conclude negotiations on a code of conduct for the South China Sea, aimed at managing tensions amid overlapping maritime claims. 'Asean is acting strategically so that it does not need to bite off more than it can chew as a multilateral organisation with a multitude of interests that are focused on regional integration,' said Dr Mustafa.
