How ‘two-tier Keir' turned into ‘two deals Keir' (with a third on the way)

Independent

08-05-2025

For to pull off trade deals with the United States and India in two days is his biggest achievement yet as prime minister.
He has shown skill and judgement in dealing with Donald Trump, resisting the temptation to denounce the US president for turning on America's allies, and negotiating patiently to secure a deal that will protect Britain from the worst of Trump's war on prosperity.
These are deals that Starmer's Conservative predecessors breezily told us were in the bag. Boris Johnson must be fizzing with fury that the Brexit dividend that he trumpeted has cascaded from the slot machine when a Labour prime minister pulled the handle. Not once but twice in quick succession.
The UK-India deal that was announced on Tuesday would be done 'by Diwali', Johnson said – three years ago. Rishi Sunak, with Kemi Badenoch as his business and trade secretary, tried to finalise the deal as part of his legacy.
Now Labour has delivered and Badenoch pretended that it succeeded only by selling out on the tax treatment of temporary workers – until the Indians pointed out that she had agreed in principle to the same sensible measure to avoid double taxation herself.
She looks ridiculous when Jacob Rees-Mogg, a keeper of the Eurosceptic flame, said the Indian deal was 'welcome' and 'exactly what Brexit promised'. Oliver Dowden, the former deputy prime minister from the other wing of the Tory party, praised Jonathan Reynolds, Labour's business and trade secretary, and said: 'Free trade is a win-win for both nations.'
Now Starmer and his negotiating team have notched up another win-win, with the US. The mood in No 10 has swung wildly from optimism to deep gloom over the past few weeks, when the deal was essentially done but the final thumbs up or down from the imperial Oval Office was awaited. Last week I was told that the UK would be lucky to be in the third round of trade deals after it was reported that the Trump administration had divided countries into three categories of priority.
Suddenly we have been moved from the back of Barack Obama 's queue to the front of Trump's line. The charm offensive has worked. An invitation to Buckingham Palace, a possible golf tournament and a generous helping of flattery seems to have paid off.
Of course, it is not a 'full fat' free-trade deal, as the one with India is, and is more a damage limitation exercise that still leaves Britain worse off than it was before Trump declared a trade war. Nor have we yet seen the small print, but no caveats can take away from what is a huge success for Starmer in defending the British economic interest.
The prime minister has not finished yet. He is not 'two-deals' Keir but 'three-deals' Keir, with the most valuable deal to come, with the European Union, at a summit in London in 11 days' time. In the space of two weeks, Starmer will have concluded trade deals with the most populous country in the world, with the richest country in the world and with the single market that is our most important trading partner.
The deal with India may not add much to our GDP in the short term, but the growth potential of the Indian market is vast. The deal with the US may not get us back to where we were before Trump decided that American children had too many dolls, but it protects us from the worst of destruction. And the outline of a new relationship with the EU will not restore the losses imposed by Brexit, but easing the frictions of EU-UK trade is the single most important measure that can boost growth in the next few years.
This hat trick of deals is just what Starmer needed after Labour's drubbing at the polls last week. Nigel Farage scoffed at the India agreement and will find something to complain about with the US deal, which was secured without Peter Mandelson, our ambassador to Washington, taking him up on his offer to put in a good word with his friend in the White House.
But he should listen to Rees-Mogg and the band of free-market Brexiteer economists – Daniel Hannan, Julian Jessop and Andrew Lilico – who say these trade deals are just what leaving the EU liberated us to achieve.
And they have been achieved by a Labour government.