Milwaukee Bucks NBA Draft preview: What kind of player can they find with the No. 47 pick?

New York Times

3 hours ago

The NBA Draft is only seven days away and the Milwaukee Bucks have a selection to make.
That pick at No. 47 is in the back half of the second round, but it is still an opportunity for the Bucks to, potentially, add a talented player on a cheap contract. This year's NBA Finals features a lot of lottery picks and first-round selections at the top of each roster, but nine second-round picks or undrafted players — Thomas Bryant, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams — are among the 20 players who have played at least 25 minutes in the first five games of the series.
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It may take years for a player drafted in the second round to realize his full potential or find his way to a contributing role in the NBA, but this pick isn't just a throwaway, so let's take a closer look at the Bucks and the No. 47 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
When talking about the draft, it's important to set proper expectations. That means this exploration will start with Seth Partnow's essential piece of analysis on the outcome of recent drafts, a piece I've often referred to as 'The Dream Killer.'
Some quick thoughts:
Let's start with the dream killer, @SethPartnow. pic.twitter.com/6kJHMsZumM
— Eric Nehm (@eric_nehm) July 30, 2021
First, it's important to recognize that the most likely outcome for any player drafted is not becoming a successful NBA player. At the very top, it is more likely that players will find success in the NBA, but that likelihood dwindles as you get deeper into the draft.
With the 47th pick, the Bucks' chances of finding a contributor are low. According to Partnow's analysis from a few years back, a player selected between 40 and 50 turns into a rotation player roughly 10 percent of the time. Low odds, however, do not make it impossible for the Bucks to develop a rotation player from the 47th pick.
It will require a strong plan and the right selection, but the Bucks can turn this pick into a contributor on a rookie contract, which, with the new collective bargaining agreement, is something that has grown in importance.
However, even if the Bucks are successful in finding a hidden gem in the second round's back half, that player may not end up contributing much if the team is able to make the postseason next year. Per Stathead, only 75 rookies have played at least 10 minutes per game as a rookie in the postseason across the last 10 seasons and only 17 of those players were second-round picks. It's worth noting the Bucks played two of those second-round rookies (Malcolm Brogdon in 2017 and Andre Jackson Jr. in 2024) in the playoffs.
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Recent changes to policies regarding Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) in college sports have had a profound effect on the draft, especially at the end of the first and the start of the second round.
Before the changes, remaining in the draft was the best way for underclassmen who were borderline first-round draft picks to make money the next season. Even if there was some risk in dropping into the second round, those players would still end up being NBA players. Now, some of those underclassmen can just stick around in college for another year and have an opportunity to make more money than they might on a non-guaranteed contract as a second-round pick. Even some of the international prospects who often dotted the late first round and early second are now taking big NIL offers from colleges around the country as their first move to the United States to play basketball.
Those changes mean the prospect pool is much different. As you're going to see as we cycle through some of the prospects, many of these players are going to have played at least four years of college basketball, often at multiple schools. Fewer players are like lottery tickets and more players are likely closer to their ceilings. That reality takes away some of the chances the Bucks could take a big swing, but also older prospects may be more prepared to make an impact earlier in their rookie contracts and that will take on increased importance in the new collective bargaining agreement.
For this exercise, we're highlighting players exclusively from Tier 7 (players 37-54) in Sam Vecenie's 2025 NBA Draft Guide.
(While we're here, you should go read it or maybe skim it and skip around to prospects you enjoy because it's 198 pages long. The amount of work Sam puts into it is outrageous. He is the best in the business.)
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There may be prospects you enjoy more in Tier 6 who you think could fall to the Bucks or Tier 7 prospects you prefer to the ones I've highlighted or even Tier 8 players who you think have gone overlooked, but these are the 10 prospects, presented in the order they appear in the draft guide, that stood out in that tier.
Martin's highlight reel is full of incredible dunks, which should come as no surprise considering Martin posted a 38-inch vertical at this year's NBA Draft combine. Many of those dunks happened because of a strong defensive effort from Martin.
Throughout their national championship run, Florida was able to lock down opposing offenses and Martin was a big part of that, bringing tough on-ball defense and smart rotations off the ball. He stands just 6 feet, 2 inches tall, but his 6-foot-7 wingspan allowed him to compete against bigger players and get deflections. Plus, he can navigate screens.
OH MY GOODNESS ALIJAH MARTIN POSTER 😱#MarchMadness @GatorsMBK pic.twitter.com/JFyVsSaOT1
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 6, 2025
Questions for Martin, however, pop up on the other end of the floor, where his role on an NBA team is more difficult to ascertain from his college resume. Despite being the size of a point guard, Martin played off-ball with Walter Clayton Jr. running the show for the Gators. Martin knocked down only 35 percent from 3 on 5.9 attempts per game, but he did take several attempts off the dribble and off movement in his lone season at Florida. He's not a true point guard, which could be a problem for a lot of teams. But Milwaukee might not have a problem with it — if Martin can defend up the ladder positionally — because of the presence of a non-traditional playmaker in Antetokounmpo.
UP TOP to Yanic Konan Niederhauser ‼️ @PennStateMBB #B1GMBBall on @BigTenNetwork 📺 pic.twitter.com/HEqbHEtk7z
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 19, 2025
As you can see in the video above, Niederhauser is a massive human and quite athletic. The Swiss big man does not have the offensive skill set of big men the Bucks have typically targeted with Antetokounmpo on the roster, but if Niederhauser is only asked to play 10-15 minutes per game at the start of his career, Jericho Sims showed that the Bucks can probably make that work with an elite defensive effort.
While Niederhauser racked up 2.3 blocks per game at Penn State this past season, there are still some questions surrounding how well he was defending. His elite athletic testing at the combine — 37-inch vertical, elite shuttle run score — suggests there is more to be mined on that end. There also is still some question of whether he can unlock it at the next level. Offensively, he should be able to successfully fill the role as a rim-running big almost immediately upon entering the NBA.
Because of a knee injury that forced him to miss an entire college season and the bonus COVID year awarded to college players, Williams is an old NBA draft prospect, but that shouldn't necessarily take away from his attractiveness to the Bucks.
Brice Williams dropped 30 for @HuskerMBB in their @CBBCrown win 👑#B1GMBBall pic.twitter.com/SNyNmZQd23
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) April 1, 2025
Williams was asked to do everything at Nebraska this season and he did the job at a high level, averaging 20.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while still shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3. He made 88.3 percent at the free-throw line and made 38.6 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s during his two seasons at Nebraska. Williams also made 60.3 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court settings.
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He was a well-rounded offensive player, so there should be plenty of avenues for him to make an impact offensively at the next level, if he can scale down his offense to a role where he doesn't have the ball in his hands all the time.
Williams has a big 6-foot-10 wingspan and typically gave a strong effort on the defensive end, but it will be interesting to see what he can do as a role player in the NBA. To survive and thrive, he needs to be able to make a difference on defense while playing well off of stars on offense.
While Williams did his work in a variety of ways offensively, Lanier's offensive game is built around elite 3-point shooting.
Chaz Lanier was getting BUCKETS in No. 1 Tennessee's win over No. 23 Arkansas 🪣
29 PTS | 10-20 FG pic.twitter.com/yuGrCF5BUn
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 4, 2025
Lanier was one of the best catch-and-shoot players in the NCAA this past season. The fifth-year guard knocked down 40.5 percent on 242(!) catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts on his way to averaging 18 points per game in his lone season with the Volunteers. He can knock down shots from a standstill, on relocation and off movement; it didn't really matter for Lanier as he put up one of the best 3-point shooting seasons in college basketball.
His 3-point shooting will be how he could eventually make a living in the NBA, but his frame with a 6-foot-9 wingspan suggests that he can survive on the other end at the next level if he can build the right habits.
In his only season with Georgetown — his third team in five college seasons — Peavy served as the Hoyas' offensive leader, averaging 17.2 points and 3.6 assists per game. He had the best 3-point shooting season of his college career, knocking down 40 percent on 4.1 attempts from deep per game, but he spent his first four seasons in college as a non-threat behind the 3-point line.
At Georgetown, Peavy had the ball in his hands a lot and he produced, knocking down 3s and shooting a solid 43.2 percent on midrange jumpers. But this season was an outlier.
MICAH PEAVY HITS A LATE WINNER FOR GEORGETOWN 🔥
(via @CBBonFOX)
pic.twitter.com/7aCrwEUQ8A
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 21, 2025
Also an outlier? Peavy's ability on the defensive end. Per Stathead, Peavy was just one of 19 players in Division I men's basketball to average at least 2.3 steals per game in 2024-25. While Peavy does not have a huge wingspan (6-foot-7.25), he was massively disruptive on the defensive end, jumping passing lanes and getting into the space of opposing stars. If he can be a disruptive, physical defender and switch across multiple positions in the NBA, he will give himself a chance to prove what he can do on the offensive end.
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After making the move to VCU from Utah State with head coach Ryan Odom, Shulga knocked down 40.2 percent from 3 over the last two seasons. Like Lanier, Shulga's offensive game is built around his impressive 3-point shooting, but the Ukrainian guard showcased far more off the dribble as the lead guard for VCU. Shulga used the threat of his shot to create advantages for himself and work into the in-between spaces of the defense, which allowed him to average 4.0 assists per game this season as he probed defenses with a tight handle.
Max Shulga makes contested step back threes look easy 😳 @VCU_Hoops pic.twitter.com/rO3p8g0Yyu
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 16, 2025
Those offensive skills should allow him to be a threat as a spot-up shooter at the next level with the possibility of also working some in the pick-and-roll game with strong screeners, but that remains to be seen. Shulga only has a 6-foot-5.75 wingspan, so he doesn't have great size and there are questions about his athleticism, which means Shulga has to prove himself defensively in the NBA to avoid becoming a regular target for teams looking to attack the weak link.
Like a couple of the players already on this list, Brea is a knockdown 3-point shooter and he may be able to stake a claim to being the best shooter in the entire draft. He shot 43.5 percent from deep on 5.9 attempts per game this season, his lone year at Kentucky. He also hit 49.8 percent on 6.1 attempts per game in the 2023-24 season at Dayton. Brea knocked down 3s in every situation imaginable last season, which should give him an elite skill at the NBA level next season.
Koby Brea poured it in from deep 🎯
He knocked down a career-high 7 threes in the W over No. 6 Florida 🔥 @KentuckyMBB pic.twitter.com/1cVghiyygm
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 4, 2025
Over the last five seasons, though, we've seen the NBA game evolve. Consistently hitting from deep isn't enough to guarantee a rotation spot because opponents can effectively run specialists off the 3-point line and take advantage of them on defense. That is where the questions arise for Brea. His wingspan is only 6-foot-6 and he doesn't possess much of a game off the dribble. Defensively, he might not possess the requisite size or speed to survive at the next level. So, while he might be the best shooter in the draft, there will be a lot he needs to improve to find a place in the NBA.
Standing 7 feet tall with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, Goldin has legitimate size to be an NBA center. He used that size well at Michigan, averaging 16.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game to earn First Team All-Big Ten honors in his only season with the Wolverines. While his might not be the most popular skill set in the modern game, Goldin was a powerful post player and exhibited strong touch around the basket. Unlike Niederhauser, his offensive game was built more around skill and touch than explosive rim running, but that touch likely won't extend out to the 3-point line at the start of his NBA career.
Vlad Goldin was GOLDEN tonight in Westwood ⭐️
His career-high 36 PTS led No. 24 Michigan to the road W over No. 22 UCLA 🫡 pic.twitter.com/higm4KUYMo
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 8, 2025
While it was difficult for other players to score on him around the rim in Michigan's elite defense, Goldin blocked only 1.4 shots per game and part of that is because of a lack of quick-twitch athleticism. That may end up being a problem for Goldin at the next level. Because of his relative lack of athleticism and quickness, he will almost certainly need to be elite at the footwork and reads that go along with being a drop big in pick-and-roll coverage and it's unclear if he can do that.
After two seasons as a rotation player in a more limited role at Gonzaga, Sallis transferred to Wake Forest and starred for the Demon Deacons. He averaged at least 18 points and 2.5 assists per game in each of the last two seasons, but his 3-point shooting fluctuated greatly. In his junior season, Sallis knocked down 40.5 percent on 5.4 3-point attempts per game, but his 3-point percentage dropped to 27.7 percent on 4.8 3-point attempts in his senior season. While Sallis struggled with his 3-point shooting, he has remained consistent with his midrange jumper at Wake Forest and used it as a weapon as a pick-and-roll ballhandler.
𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗘𝗥 𝗢𝗙 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗞:
🎩 Hunter Sallis, @WakeMBB
🔗 https://t.co/l4VmBtpMPz pic.twitter.com/QDyMGEXbjc
— ACC Men's Basketball (@accmbb) January 20, 2025
All of the questions for Sallis at the next level deal with his size. When he went to the combine last season, he weighed 179 pounds. This year at the combine, he only weighed 181 pounds. If he is unable to put more weight on his frame, it is tough to see how he is going to keep a consistent place on an NBA roster, as he won't be able to play through contact on offense and he'll struggle to find players to defend. (For reference, think of Isaiah Joe — 6 feet 5, 181 pounds — trying to find a place in this year's NBA Finals.)
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While many of the players on this list have strong offensive games with questions about their defense, it is a bit more difficult to know what exactly will be Watkins' calling card at the next level. While he only stands 6 feet 5, he has a massive 6-foot-11 wingspan and a strong frame. That strength, coupled with his wingspan, allowed Watkins to be a strong on-ball defender and make plays. He grabbed 1.9 steals per game in the 2023-24 season and 1.2 steals per game this past season.
Steal and slam 😤
Watkins opening the game with an impressive effort!
📺 @FSUHoops x ESPNU pic.twitter.com/vql9oGJOM9
— ACC Men's Basketball (@accmbb) February 13, 2025
Offensively, it's difficult to see what Watkins can do at the next level. While he likes to get out in transition to take advantage of his athleticism, that's a skill lots of NBA players have mastered. He isn't a knockdown 3-point shooter and he doesn't score efficiently at any level. Offensively he might look the part, but it's not quite clear how he can impact games.
Trying to find players on the margins has changed drastically over the years. In previous versions of the NBA, you could try to find a specialist — like an elite 3-point shooter or great shot blocker — in the second round, exploit that elite skill for as much as it was worth and just deal with the fact that one of your role players might not be able to defend as well as you need or attack a closeout.
Now, one-dimensional players (or players with one elite skill) are harder to hide. This postseason regularly featured NBA coaches finding a way to poke at the weakest link on the floor and take advantage of what that player could not do. Great shooters have to find a way to make something offensively when they're run off the line. Shot blockers need to be able to defend in space. While having an elite skill is still something that can give you a chance to get on the floor, players who can do a little bit of everything (generalists) have found it easier to keep their spot in a rotation than specialists.
It's tough to know just how much of each trait or skill players need or whether draft picks, especially those drafted late in the second round, will be able to develop enough to stay on the floor in a playoff game. It feels more difficult than ever for role players to avoid getting targeted by an opposing game plan in the postseason.
(Photo of Alijah Martin and Chaz Lanier: James Gilbert / Getty Images)